During the war Ballin tried over and over again to make the responsible authorities see the position in the same light as his own observations, and his repeated discussions with unprejudiced and clear-headed men had led him to see it himself. The letter reproduced below contains a description of the general situation at the time of writing (July, 1916). It was addressed to a friend of his in the diplomatic service who was looking after German interests in one of the countries allied with Germany, and who had asked him for some information concerning the situation at home:
“I am sorry that I can send you no good news at all. The conduct of the war and its probable outcome are more of a mystery now than ever, and with all that I cannot help feeling that our responsible quarters do not even now realize the profound gravity of the situation. The political and the military leaders are frequently at variance. There is a lack of proper co-operation between Berlin and Vienna. We imagine ourselves to be the rider, but we are only the horse. The road between Berlin and Vienna is studded with compromises of doubtful value, and incapable archdukes are given the most important positions.
“The military situation was favourable until the Austrians thought their day of reckoning with Italy had come, and when our own Supreme Command set out to cover themselves with laurels in France.
“Both these undertakings turned out to be political and military failures. For hundreds of reasons an early peace is imperative to us. As matters stand at present only Great Britain and Russia can conclude peace, because France and Italy must be regarded as mere British vassals.
“Since the Cabinets of London and Petrograd remain absolutely deaf to our publicly expressed overtures for peace, we have no choice but to try to utterly defeat the one or the other of these, our principal enemies, either Russia or Great Britain.
“We could have finished with Great Britain if we had had at least 300 first-class submarines, and in that case we might have regarded a war against America with complacency.
“However, even if we possessed, as some optimists believe, as many as 150 first-class submarines, we could not strike a mortal blow at Great Britain and defy the United States as well. Therefore, we have only one choice left: we must force Russia, our second chief enemy, to her knees.
“Russia has been badly hit through the loss of the industrial regions of Poland. If we had exerted all our strength in that direction, and if we had taken Kiev, the economic key to Russia, the Tsar would have had no alternative but to conclude a separate peace, and this would have settled the Roumanian question at the same time.
“With less certainty, but also, perhaps, with less exertion, it might have proved possible to make peace via Petrograd. But what have we done instead? We have squandered our forces. The Eastern theatre of war was denuded of troops, because at first Falkenhayn felt sure he could take Verdun in a fortnight, then by Easter, and finally by Whitsuntide. All our forces have been hurled at Verdun; rivers of blood have been spilt, and now, in July, we are still outside it. And what does it profit us if we do get it? We shall only find other and more formidable lines behind it.
“In the meantime our good Austrians have transferred all their reliable officers and men to the Tyrol, and have left nothing but the rubbish and their inefficient generals to guard the points of danger. And what are the results? A graceful retirement for Salandra and the formation of an anti-German coalition government in Italy on the one hand, and a manifestation of Austrian superiority on the other, but a failure, nevertheless, because the Austrians were not strong enough numerically to get down into the plain. And even if they had compelled the evacuation of Venetia nothing would have been gained. The fate of Italy, as it happens, does not depend on Austria, but on Great Britain, who will rather watch her starve and perish for want of coal than permit her to sue for peace.