“As far as I can make out, the Chinese wall surrounding the Kaiser has not disappeared with the exit of Falkenhayn from the scene. No one is granted access to him who knows something about the events that led up to this war, and who, in the interests of his dynasty as well as his own, would tell him the unvarnished truth. We are, after all, a constitutional country. It would doubtless be best to transfer General Headquarters to Berlin, but, of course, people are not wanting who object to such a proceeding, asserting that it would enable outside influences to acquire a hold on the conduct of affairs.
“How badly people are informed with regard to the actual situation was brought home to me when I was in Berlin a short while ago, and when X. contended with great emphasis that we should have to attach more value to huge indemnities than to annexations. If it is possible that the men round the Kaiser count on heavy indemnities even now, it shows how sadly they misjudge the real state of affairs.
“My feeling tells me that the present Cabinets, containing as they do men who are compromised by their actions since the outbreak of war, cannot give us peace. How can anyone imagine that men like Bethmann, Asquith and Grey, who have hurled such incredible insults at each other, can ever sit together at the same table?
“The question as to who is to succeed them, of course, abounds with difficulties.
“I recently met some Austrian gentlemen in Berlin. They are completely apathetic; they have lost all interest in the future, and they themselves suggest that Germany should no longer permit Austria to have a voice in the conduct of affairs. Her food supply will only last until March 1st. After that date she will depend on Hungary and ourselves for her food. She fears that she is not likely to get much, if anything, from Hungary; on the other hand, she feels sure that we are compelled for our own sake to save her from famine.
“Constantinople, too, has only supplies for a few more weeks.
“With us at home the paraffin question is becoming very serious. In country districts it may be possible to tell people to go to bed at curfew time, but the working population of our large cities will never consent to dispense with artificial light. Serious riots have already taken place in connexion with the fat shortage.
“I am afraid that Great Britain is trying to bring about such a change in the situation as will enable her shortly to tell the small neutral countries that no one in Europe will be permitted any longer to remain neutral, and that they must make up their minds to enter one or the other of the two big syndicates. You see nothing I can write to you has even a semblance of comfort in it. I regard the future with the utmost apprehension.”
In contrast to such views as were expressed in the foregoing letters, the men who were at the head of affairs at that time maintained that nothing but the application of rigorous force, or, in other words, the unrestricted use of the submarine weapon against Great Britain, would lead to a successful termination of the world war. The propaganda in favour of that measure is still in everybody’s memory. Whatever may be said in defence of the authors of this propaganda, there is one reproach from which they cannot escape, viz. that they left no stone unturned to prevent their opponents from stating their views, and this, on account of the strict censorship to which the expression of every independent opinion was subject, was not a difficult matter. Their one-sided policy went so far that, when a pamphlet on the question of submarine warfare was written by order of the Admiralty Staff and circulated among a number of persons, including leading shipping men, Ballin was purposely excluded, because it was taken for granted that he would not express himself in favour of the contents. It is not likely, however, that the methods of reasoning put forward in this document—which was much more like an academic dissertation than an unprejudiced criticism of a political and military measure affecting the whole national existence of Germany—would have induced Ballin to change his views on the submarine war. Once only, and then merely for a brief period, was he in doubt as to whether his views on that question were right, but he soon returned to his first opinion when he found that he had been misinformed regarding the number and the effectiveness of submarines available.
The inauguration of unrestricted submarine warfare in January, 1917, not only put a sudden end to the peace movement in which Ballin, as has been explained on a preceding page, played an important part, but also to the attempt of President Wilson to bring the two sides together. The details of the President’s endeavours have meanwhile become public property through the revelations of Count Bernstorff, the German ambassador in Washington. In both instances a few weeks would have sufficed to ascertain whether the proposed action was likely to bring about the desired end, and the former attempt had even led to the impending establishment of mutual contact between the belligerents. The inability of the German political leaders to avail themselves of this opportunity, or at least their failure to do so, has doubtless been the greatest misfortune from which Germany had to suffer during the whole war.