“I hope Your Excellency will pardon me for thus frankly expressing my anxieties, but I considered it my duty to let Your Excellency know my feelings.”
In May, 1917, Ballin accepted an invitation received from the Supreme Army Command and paid a visit to General Headquarters, where he found a great deal of discontent prevailing with the policy of the Chancellor. He also met the Kaiser, and reports on his visit as follows:
“After sharing the Kaiser’s repast—which was plain and on a war diet—I had several hours’ private conversation with His Majesty. I found him full of optimism, far more so than I thought was justified. Both he and Ludendorff seem to put too much faith in the success of the submarines; but they fail to see that this weapon is procuring for us the enmity of the whole world, and that the promise held out by its advocates, viz., that Great Britain will be brought to her knees within two months, is, to put it mildly, extremely doubtful of realization, unless we can sink the ships which carry ammunition and pit-props to England.”
In a letter addressed to a gentleman in the Kaiser’s entourage he gave a further detailed account of his views on the optimism prevailing in high places:
“I cannot help thinking of the enthusiastic and at the same time highly optimistic letter which you had the great kindness to show me last night. My opinion is that the gentlemen who form the entourage of His Majesty ought not to view matters as that interesting epistle suggests that they do.
“You are a believer in the statistics of Mr. X. I took the liberty of telling you last night that statistics are a mathematical form of telling a lie, and that, to use the expression of a clever Frenchman, a statistical table is like a loose woman who is at the service of anyone who wants her. ‘There are different ways of arranging figures,’ as they say in England. I do not know Mr. X, neither do I know his statistics, but what I have been told about them seemed foolish to me. If we carry on the war, and particularly the unrestricted submarine war, on the basis of statistics such as he and other jugglers with figures have compiled, we are sure to fail in the ends we are aiming at.
“As concerns the unrestricted submarine war itself, I still maintain the view I have always held, viz., that we shall never succeed in starving out Great Britain to such an extent as to force her Government to sue for a peace of our dictation.
“I have just had a visit from a Danish friend whom His Majesty also knows quite well, and who, together with a committee of delegates sent by the Danish Government, will be leaving for England to-night. The two members of this committee who represent the Ministry of Agriculture have been instructed, inter alia, to complain that Great Britain now imports much less bacon, butter, and other articles from Denmark than she had undertaken to do, and that the prices she pays for these imports are much below those originally stipulated.
“Apart from the cargo carried by two small steamers that have been torpedoed, Denmark has been able, notwithstanding our submarines, to supply Great Britain with all the food required of her. The vessels remain in territorial waters until a wireless message informs them of the spot where they will meet the British convoy which is to take them safely to England. They have to pass through only a small danger zone which, as I have said, has hitherto proved fatal to no more than two vessels.
“This fact, to my mind, points to the limits of the success obtainable by our submarines. I have constantly explained, especially to the Chief of the Admiralty Staff, that I can only regard the submarine as a successful weapon if it enables us to cut off the British supplies of ore from Spain and Sweden, and also those of pit-props, because without the possession of these two necessities, Great Britain is no longer able to continue the war. I have been assured that our submarines would achieve this task, even if torpedo boats were employed as convoys; but the experiences gained so far do not bear out these predictions. We succeed, indeed, in sinking a few vessels out of many; but suppose there are ten ships in a convoy, it still means that nine of them, with their supplies of ore and pit-props, safely reach their destination.