“Let me repeat, the starvation of Great Britain is impossible; because, in addition to her own harvests, she only needs from twelve to fifteen thousand tons of cereals every day, and these she can, if necessary, always obtain at night-time through her Channel service, via Spain and France. Even this necessity will hardly arise, because two medium-sized steamers are sufficient to carry the fifteen thousand tons, and things would have to be very bad, indeed, if these did not succeed in reaching a British port. And if our statistical tricksters juggle with crop failures, please do not forget that new harvests are soon to be expected, and that it will not do always to count on crop failures.
“You will be doing a good work if you can persuade people at headquarters to abandon their belief that Great Britain can be starved to submission. Unfortunately their other belief, viz., that we can cut off her supplies of ore and pit-props, will also have to be abandoned.
“Certainly, the achievements of our submarines have been amazing. At their present rate they will enormously diminish the British tonnage figures, and raise the hatred of everything German to boiling point; but they will not, unfortunately, lead to such an end of the war as our Pan-Germans desire. It is a thousand pities!
“When the submarine problem began to assume practical shape, I pointed out to the Chief of the Admiralty Staff that, to be successful, the submarine war must be brief; that its principal object was not to sink a large number of ships, but to produce such a feeling of alarm in neutral countries as to prevent them from risking their ships (1) because of the great value of tonnage immediately after the war, (2) because of the impossibility of finding crews, and (3) because of the insurance difficulty. These conditions of success were, indeed, realized during the first four weeks; but since that time people, as I had predicted, have got used to the danger. The crews are coming forth again, the insurance companies issue their policies again, and the ships are put to sea again.
“If the Admiralty Staff, who is doubtless in possession of the figures, would submit to you a list of the number of vessels laid up in Dutch and Scandinavian ports on March 1st, owing to the submarine danger, and another one showing the position as it is to-day, you would discover that, at a low estimate, at least 30 per cent, of the cargo vessels are running again, and that, after another month or so, the number of those still idle will have dwindled down to 20 per cent, or less.
“These are my views on the situation. If we have no other means of finishing the war but the submarine menace, it will go on for years. I should like to protest in anticipation against any suggestion to the effect that I am trying to minimize the achievements of the submarines. On the contrary, I have nothing but the highest admiration for them, and I really find it quite impossible to praise in ordinary prose all that our country has done during this war; the whole achievement is one grand epic.
“Within the next few months the problem will have to be solved how to put an end to this devastating catastrophe which is ruining the progress of the world. There is no need for me to tell you that the position of Germany has grown considerably worse through the active intervention of the United States. The fact that this enormously wealthy country with its one hundred million inhabitants has turned against us is fraught with the most dangerous consequences. Now it will no longer be possible for us to continue the war for several more years, and then to enforce a peace on lines such as are laid down by a noisy section of our people, unless we succeed in exploiting the extremely fortunate change in the Russian situation in such a way that the vast resources of that country will be at our disposal.
“This letter has become longer than it ought to be, but the gravity of the subject with which it deals must be my excuse for going into so many details. Perhaps I may avail myself of some future occasion to acquaint you with my hopes and fears on other political matters; because, as I have already explained, the present state of affairs makes it urgently desirable that the gentlemen whose privilege it is to be near His Majesty should see things as they really are, and not as they would wish them to be.
“Compare, if you have a chance, the advertisement pages of an English paper with those of a German one. I have just come across a copy of the Daily Telegraph which I beg to enclose for this purpose. I have been in the habit of studying these advertisements for many months; they are excellent means of gauging the difference in the effects of the war on the two countries.”
During the remaining part of 1917, and during the first months of 1918 as well, Ballin took an active interest in the preparations for the Bill dealing with the rebuilding of the German mercantile marine; in other respects, especially with regard to political matters, the course of events condemned him to remain passive. His notes during this period are few. I select the following passages from them: