It is interesting to consider what would have been the effect on the war (and, therefore, on all subsequent history) if the United States had sent a large force of bombing aeroplanes and torpedoplanes to Europe shortly after we entered the war in the Spring of 1917. This we easily could have done, if we had started to get them ready, when the suggestion was first made; or even at a considerable time thereafter. Certainly, the war would have been greatly shortened, and much suffering averted.
The inventions and discoveries made since the Great War began, though some are evidently important, are so recent that we cannot state with any confidence what their effect will be; and for this reason the author craves permission to close his brief story at this point.
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A noteworthy fact observable in the history of invention is that it has been confined almost wholly to Egypt, Assyria, Babylon, China, Persia, Greece, Italy, Germany, France, Great Britain, and the United States, and to a few men in those countries. Now it is in those countries that the highest degree of civilization has been developed, and it is from them that other nations have drawn theirs. The almost total absence of invention in women is more noteworthy still; for Mrs. Eddy and Madame Curie seem to be the only women who have contributed really original and important work.
Another noteworthy fact is that the idea-germs from which all inventions have been developed have been very few and very tiny. But what a numerous and important progeny has been brought forth; and how wholly impossible civilization would be now, had it not been for a few basic inventions and certain improvements made upon them! We can realize this, if we try to imagine the effect of removing a single one of the basic inventions (and even of certain derived inventions) from the Machine of Civilization.
Try to imagine what would happen if the invented art of—say writing—for instance were suddenly lost. Would not the whole civilized world be thrown into chaos as soon as the fact were realized? A like disorder would be occasioned, though possibly not so quickly, if men should suddenly forget how to print, or even how to use the telegraph, telephone or the comparatively unimportant typewriter. Try to imagine what would happen in even one city,—say New York—if the typewriter were suddenly to be withdrawn! Would not all the business of New York be paralyzed in a single day? Or fancy that all the machines for making and utilizing electricity for supplying light and power should suddenly become inoperative. Would there not be a panic within twenty-four hours or less? Fancy that all the elevators should have to stop. Imagine what would happen if the steam engine should suddenly cease to operate, and all the steamships and railroad trains should stop, and the countless wheels of industry that are turned directly or indirectly by steam should cease to turn. Imagine that gunpowder should cease to function, and that savages could meet modern armies on equal terms.
Some one may declare that this line of argument does not prove as much as it seems to prove regarding the influence of invention, for the reason that it includes a sudden change, and that every sudden change produces results which are caused merely by the suddenness of the change. So let us grant this, and then imagine that the changes suggested would not take place suddenly, but very slowly. Imagine, for instance, that we should discover that the various inventions noted in this book were gradually to cease to operate, but that they would not cease altogether for twenty years, or even forty. Is it not certain that the human race would revert to savagery, after those inventions had ceased to operate?