Foundling Hospital, London.
| Year | Natural Smallpox | |
| 1766 | 8 | |
| 1767 | 2 | |
| 1768 | 8 | |
| 1769 | 7 | |
| 1770 | 1 | |
| 1771 | 2 | |
| 1772 | 3 | |
| 1773 | 1 | |
| 1774 | 4 | |
| 1775 | 3 | |
| 1783 | 1 | |
| 1784 | 0 | |
| 1785 | 8 (or 16 ?) | |
| 1786 | 0 | |
| 1787 | 5 | |
| 1788 | 4 |
The occurrence of one or more cases seems to have been the signal for a general inoculation; or, again, it may be that the few cases of natural smallpox in the infirmary at one time had followed a general inoculation. Thus, in June-July, 1767, one case is entered on the second day from the inoculation (of a large number), and another on the fourth day. Again, in Nov.-Dec., 1768, one of the four cases of natural smallpox is marked “soon after his inoculation.”
The received cases in which inoculation failed to save individuals from the natural smallpox are few. Besides those already given for the first period of the practice, and the case from Heberden, there are six fully detailed by Kite of Gravesend, in two groups of three each, all in the spring of 1790[972]. Apart from exact records, there are various testimonies more or less trustworthy. The Marquis of Hertford is said to have told Dr Jenner that his father, having been inoculated by Caesar Hawkins, the serjeant surgeon, and thereafter attended by him during a tour abroad, caught smallpox at Rheims and died[973]. Bromfeild, surgeon to Queen Charlotte, is said to have “abandoned the practice of inoculation in consequence of its failure[974].” Jenner and his friends made a collection of cases in which inoculation had failed, to the number of “more than one thousand, and fortunately seventeen of them in families of the nobility[975].” A Bath surgeon said he had heard of “innumerable” cases of attacks of natural smallpox long after inoculation, and had himself professionally seen “not a few[976].” A surgeon of Frampton on Severn knew of four cases, out of five inoculated together in 1784, that took smallpox afterwards in the natural way, of whom one died[977]. In an epidemic of smallpox at Enmore Green, a suburb of Shaftesbury, in 1808, a surgeon from Shaston found that “nearly twenty” of the victims had been inoculated “by the late Mr John White” about ten years before, and were supposed to have had it “very fine[978].” Dr John Forbes learned that some nineteen cases of natural smallpox in and around Chichester in 1821-22 were of inoculated persons[979]. It would be incorrect to say that such cases could be multiplied indefinitely; on the contrary, they are hard to find. Whether that shows that inoculation was on the whole a success, to the extent that it was tried, or that its failures are in part unrecorded, I am not competent to decide. But it cannot be doubted that the usual estimates of the saving of life by inoculation were extravagant and fallacious. La Condamine, a mathematician, counted up the saving to the slave-owner in an ideal plantation of three hundred negroes[980]. Watson, with the epidemics in the Foundling fresh in his memory, estimated that inoculation might have saved 23,000 out of the 23,308 who had died of smallpox in London in ten years, 1758-68[981]. Haygarth[982] reckoned that 351 might have been saved by inoculation of the 378 children who died of smallpox at Chester from 1772 to 1777. Woodville, who wrote the history of inoculation down to the advent of Sutton, declared in 1796 that the art of inoculation, originally a fortuitous discovery, “is capable of saving more lives than the whole materia medica[983].” Arnot, the historian of Edinburgh (1779), asserted inoculation to be “a remedy so compleat that we hesitate not in the least to pronounce those parents, who will not inoculate their children for the smallpox, accessory to their death[984].” The College of Physicians, in a formal minute of 1754, pronounced it “highly salutary to the human race.”
Despite all those academic pronouncements, inoculation was somehow not a practical success. It cannot be maintained that it failed because the people were averse to it; for it continued to be in popular request far into the 19th century, until it was at length suppressed by statute. For the present we may return to the proper subject of epidemic smallpox, premising, on the ground of what has been said, that inoculation made but little difference to the epidemiological history.
The Epidemiology continued from 1721.
The ordinary course of smallpox in Britain was little touched by inoculation. The inoculators were like the fly upon the wheel, with the important difference that they did indeed raise the dust. The writers who kept up the old Hippocratic or Sydenhamian habit of recording the prevalent maladies of successive seasons, such as Huxham, Hillary[985], and Barker, of Coleshill, while they dealt with epidemics impartially and comprehensively, were as if by a common instinct adverse to the fuss made about inoculation. Says Barker, in an essay against inoculation during the Suttonian enthusiasm, “It is undoubtedly a great error that the smallpox is now considered the only bugbear in the whole list of diseases, which, if people can get but over, they think they are safe.” This hits fairly enough the disproportionate share given to inoculation in the medical writings of the time, while it is made more pointed by the author’s suggestions for a scientific study of the conditions of smallpox itself[986]. It is still possible, with much trouble, to bring together the data for a scientific handling of the disease in the 18th century, thanks most of all to the exact school of observers or statisticians which began with Percival, of Manchester, and was continued to the end of the century by Haygarth, Heysham, Ferriar, Aikin and others. The best of the original English inoculators, Nettleton of Halifax, has also left a large number of interesting statistics relating to epidemics in Yorkshire and other northern counties in the years 1721-23; also, upon his suggestion, the figures were procured from many more smallpox epidemics in other parts of England down to 1727. It will be convenient to resume the history with these, as they come next in order after the London epidemic of 1720, at which point the interlude of inoculation came in. The following is a complete table of the figures collected from various sources: it will be observed that most parts of England are represented, the fullest representation being of the northern counties.
Censuses of Smallpox Epidemics in England, 1721-30.