Ages at death Warrington.
Pop. 9,501
in 1781		 Chester.
Pop. 14,173
in 1774		 Warrington
raised to the
ratio of Chester
Under one year 72·7 80·6 109·0
One to two 43·5 36·1 65·2
Two to three 20·1 23·4 30·1
Three to four 11·5 14·4 17·2
Four to five 7·0 8·7 10·5

It was among infants and young children born and brought up with such comparatively poor chances of surviving, that smallpox broke out at Warrington in January, 1773, reaching its climax in May and ending about October, with a mortality of 209 or 211. Aikin says:

“Its victims were chiefly young children, whom it attacked with such instant fury that the best-directed means for relief were of little avail. In general the sick were kept sufficiently cool, and were properly supplied with diluting and acidulous drinks; yet where they recovered, it seemed rather owing to a less degree of malignity in the disease or greater strength to struggle with it, than any peculiar management. When it ended fatally, it was usually before the pustules came to maturation; and, indeed, in many they showed no disposition to advance after the complete eruption, but remained quite flat and pale”—a sure sign of poor stamina vitae. “In one neighbourhood I found that out of 29 who had the disease, 12 died, or about 2 in 5; in others the mortality was still greater, and I have reason to believe it was not less on the whole.”

The monthly progress of the mortality at Warrington and Chester respectively was as follows[1064]:

Deaths.
Warrington,
1773		 Deaths.
Chester,
1774
Jan. 4 0
Feb. 4 1
March 13 0
April 23 0
May 63 3
June 49 3
July 33 11
Aug. 11 26
Sept. 7 28
Oct. 3 46
Nov. 0 44
Dec. 1 40[1065]
211 202

The following are the ages at which the children died of smallpox, and of all causes, in each town during the epidemic year[1066]:

Warrington (pop. in 1781, 9501) Chester (pop. in 1774, 14,713)
Ages Smallpox Other deaths Smallpox Other deaths
Under one month 0 18 0 17
One to three months 4 9 3 19
Three to six months 4 9 4 10
Six to twelve months 39 15 44 8
One to two years 84 24 38 14
Two to three years 33 5 42 3
Three to five years 33 14 49 13
Five to ten years 12 15 22 8
Above ten years 0 — 0 —
209 — 202 —

Comparing the ages at death in the two epidemics, we see at a glance that the second year was most fatal to children at Warrington, whereas at Chester the deaths fell more at the higher ages, although in ratio of its population it was only on a par with Warrington even at these ages.

If the great smallpox year at each town be left out, 1773 at Warrington, 1774 at Chester, the mortality of infants in their second year from all causes is found to be one-third more at Warrington than at Chester on an annual average of eight (or nine) years. Some such difference Haygarth says was well known between the smallpox of great and small towns, namely, that it “attacks children at an earlier age, and consequently is fatal to a larger proportion of people, in great than in small towns[1067].” Although Warrington was the smaller town, infants died earlier there than at Chester (from smallpox and from all causes), or the probability of life was less;—a statistical fact which Price made out, but was unable to explain. The explanation is the poor stamina of the Warrington children, which was due most of all to the circumstance that the married women were at once wage-earners and prolific breeders.

In the smallpox year at Warrington, the deaths from all causes under five years of age were 62·5 of the whole mortality, (in infants under two years they were 43·5 per cent. of all deaths) smallpox having caused them in the ratio of 199 to 291. Although Aikin’s estimate of two deaths in five cases is improbable for the whole epidemic, we may admit a rate of one death in four, which would give Warrington in 1773 about as many cases in proportion to its numbers as Chester had in 1774—844 in a population of some 9000, as compared with 1385 in a population of 14,713.