DIVIDED OPINIONS IN THE CABINET.
June 22nd.—The Opposition papers (especially the 'Morning Herald' and the 'Press,' Disraeli's new journal) have been making the most violent attacks on Aberdeen and Clarendon, calling for their impeachment on the ground of their conduct in this Eastern quarrel, particularly charging them with having been cognisant of and approved of Menschikoff's demands, which have occasioned all the hubbub. At last it was thought necessary to make a statement in reply, which was done by the 'Times' on Thursday last. The article was a good one, but contained an inaccuracy, about which Brunnow wrote a long but friendly letter of complaint to Clarendon. The day after this, another article was inserted to set the matter right, with which Brunnow was quite satisfied; but the explanations of the 'Times' failed to stem the torrent of abuse, and the Tory papers only repeated their misrepresentations with greater impudence and malignity than before. It was thought necessary a stop should be put to this, and it was proposed to Clarendon to let discussions come on in both Houses, moved by Layard in the Commons, and Clanricarde in the Lords, which would afford an opportunity for the only effectual contradiction, Ministerial statements in Parliament. Last night I met him at the Palace, when we talked the matter over. He is still of opinion that it is essential to delay the explanations and put off all discussion till the matter is decided one way or another. He thinks so in reference to the case itself, leaving out of consideration the convenience of the Government; he thinks that any discussion in the House of Commons will elicit a disposition for peace ? tout prix, which would seriously embarrass affairs, and only confirm Russia in the course she is pursuing. I do not think so, but his opinions are founded on what he hears Cobden has said, and on the animus of the peace party. He told me again what a task his is in the Cabinet, standing between and mediating between Aberdeen and Palmerston, whose ancient and habitual ideas of foreign policy are brought by this business into antagonism, and he says the difficulty is made greater by Aberdeen's unfortunate manner, who cannot avoid some of that sneering tone in discussion which so seriously affects his popularity in the House of Lords. He is therefore obliged to take a great deal upon himself, in order to prevent any collision between Palmerston and Aberdeen. It appears that Palmerston proposed on Saturday last that the entrance of the Russians into the Principalities should be considered a casus belli, in which, however, he was overruled and gave way. The Cabinet did not come to a vote upon it, but the general sentiment went with Aberdeen and Clarendon, and against Palmerston. He seems to have given way with a good grace, and hitherto nothing has occurred of a disagreeable character; on the contrary, both Clarendon and Granville tell me Palmerston has behaved very well. Clarendon thinks (and in this I concur) that the country would never forgive the Government for going to war, unless they could show that it was absolutely necessary and that they had exhausted every means of bringing about a pacific solution of the question, and nobody here would care one straw about the Russian occupation of Moldavia and Wallachia.
That all means have not been exhausted is clear from this fact. The Austrians, who are more interested than anybody, have moved heaven and earth to effect a settlement, and the Emperor of Russia has himself asked for their 'bons offices' for that end. They have entreated the Turks on the one hand to strike out some mezzo termine compatible with their dignity and with their previous refusals of Menschikoff's terms, promising that they will urge its acceptance on the Emperor with all their force, and on the other hand they have implored the Emperor to delay the occupation of the Principalities, so that by temporising, mediation, and a joint action and a judicious employment of diplomatic resources and astuteness, it is still possible some mode may be hit upon of terminating the quarrel.
July 9th.—For the last fortnight or three weeks little has occurred which is worth noting. The Eastern Question drags on, as it is likely to do. Aberdeen, who ten days ago spoke very confidently of its being settled, now takes a more desponding view, and the confidence he has hitherto reposed in the Emperor of Russia is greatly shaken. Clarendon has long thought the prospect very gloomy, but they are still endeavouring to bring about an accommodation. The question resolves itself into this: what are the real wishes and views of the Emperor? If his present conduct is the execution of a long prepared purpose, and he thinks the time favourable for the destruction of Turkey, no efforts will be availing, and he will listen to no proposals that we can possibly make. If, on the contrary, he is conscious that he has got into a dilemma, and he wishes to extricate himself from it by any means not dishonourable to himself, and such as would not degrade him in the eyes of his own subjects, then, no doubt, diplomatic astuteness will sooner or later hit upon some expedient by which the quarrel may be adjusted. Which of these alternatives is the true one, time alone can show. Meanwhile the expense to which the Turks are put in the wretched state of their finances will prove ruinous to them, and, end how it may, the fall of the Turkish dominion has been accelerated by what has already taken place. There has been a great deal of discussion about bringing on debates on the Eastern Question in both Houses, but all the leading men of all parties have deprecated discussion, and it was finally determined last night that none should take place. Disraeli alone, who cares for nothing but making mischief, tried to bring it on, but in the House of Lords Derby took a different and more becoming course, and recommended Clanricarde to give it up. Disraeli urged Layard to persevere. Granville told me yesterday that while he lamented that Aberdeen was not a more judicious and conciliating leader in the House of Lords, and was so inferior in this respect to Lord Lansdowne, he liked him very much, thought he was a very good Prime Minister, and, above all, anything but deficient in political courage, in which respect he was by no means inferior to Palmerston himself.
THE INDIA BILL CARRIED.
The Government have been going on well enough on the whole. Their immense majority on the India Bill was matter of general surprise, and showed the wretched tactics of Disraeli, as well as his small influence over his party, for he could not get one hundred of the Tories to go with him. A few small holes have been made in Gladstone's Budget, but nothing of consequence. Tom Baring, however, told me he thought Gladstone had made some great mistakes, and that Graham would have been a better Chancellor of the Exchequer; but this I much doubt. Popularity is very necessary to a Chancellor of the Exchequer, and Graham would never have been so persuasive with the House as Gladstone.
WARLIKE VIEWS OF LORD PALMERSTON.
July 12th.—The 'Times' newspaper, always famous for its versatility and inconsistency, has lately produced articles on the Eastern Question on the same day of the most opposite characters, one warlike and firm, the next vehemently pacific by some other hand. This is of small importance, but it is indicative of the difference which exists in the Cabinet on the subject, and the explanation of the inconsistency of the 'Times' is to be found in the double influence which acts on the paper. All along Palmerston has been urging a vigorous policy, and wished to employ more peremptory language and stronger measures towards Russia, while Aberdeen has been very reluctant to do as much as we have done, and would have been well content to advise Turkey to accept the last ultimatum of Russia, and so terminate what he considers a senseless and mischievous quarrel. Clarendon has had to steer between these two extremes, and while moderating the ardour of Palmerston, to stimulate Aberdeen, and persuade him to adopt a course congenial to public opinion in this country, which, however inclined to peace and abhorrent of war, is not at all disposed to connive at the aggrandisement of Russia, or to submit to the insolent dictation of the Emperor. The majority of the Cabinet have supported Clarendon, and approximate more nearly to the pacific policy of Aberdeen than to the stringent measures of Palmerston. When the two articles appeared in the 'Times,' to which I particularly allude, Clarendon approved of the first, and found great fault with the other, while Aberdeen wrote to Delane and expressed his strong approbation of the second, and his conviction that the public would sooner or later take the views therein set forth. Clarendon tells me that he has no doubt Aberdeen has on many occasions held language in various quarters that was not prudent under the circumstances, and was calculated to give erroneous impressions as to the intentions of the Government, and he thinks that the Emperor himself has been misled by what he may have heard both of the disposition and sentiments of the Prime Minister, and of the determination of the House of Commons and the country at large to abstain from war in every case except one in which our own honour and interests were directly concerned.
I had a long talk with Clarendon on Sunday, when he told me that the chances of peace were a little better than they had been, inasmuch as there seemed to be a disposition at St. Petersburg to treat, and the Austrian Government was now in earnest bringing to bear all their influence on the Emperor to accept reasonable terms of accommodation. Colloredo brought him the copy of a despatch to St. Petersburg, which he said was excellent, very frank and free in its tone. Austria seems more fully sensible of the danger to herself of any war, which would inevitably let loose the revolutionary element all over the world. Clarendon has drawn up the project of a Convention which embraces all the professed objects of the Emperor, and which the Turks may agree to; he sent it to Paris, whence Drouyn de Lhuys has returned it, with the full concurrence and assent of the French Government, and it went to Petersburg yesterday. The reception of this proposal will determine the question of peace or war.