July 14th.—G— said to me this morning that Palmerston is beginning to stir up matters afresh. I saw him yesterday morning at Holland House in close confabulation with Walewski, with whom I have no doubt he interchanged warlike sentiments, and complained of the lukewarmness of Aberdeen and Clarendon. It is evident that he is at work, and probably, according to his ancient custom, in some underhand way in the press. His flatterers tell him that a majority of the House of Commons would support him and a warlike policy, and though he may wish to believe this, and perhaps does, he will hardly go the length of trying to break up this Cabinet, with the desperate hope of making another Government himself, based on the policy of going to war. Certain newspapers are always asserting that the Cabinet is divided and in dissension, and at the same time accusing it of timidity and weakness, urging strong measures, and asserting that, if we had employed such long ago, Russia would have been frightened, and never have proceeded to such lengths. But the Government are resolved, and wisely, to avoid war as long as they can, and if driven on to it, to be able to show the country that they had exhausted all means of preserving peace.
July 18th.—At last there appears a probability of this Turkish question being amicably settled. On Saturday I was told that despatches were just come from Sir Hamilton Seymour of a more favourable character, and representing the Imperial Government as much more disposed to treat, with a real disposition to bring the negotiations to a successful issue. My informant added that Palmerston predicted that none of the projects and proposals which have emanated from the different Courts would be accepted at Petersburg, which he thought they all would. Yesterday I saw Clarendon, and found matters even in a still more promising state. After the Cabinet Walewski went to him, and communicated to him very important news (of a later date than Seymour's letters) from St. Petersburg, which to my mind is decisive of the question of peace. It appears that both France and Austria have been concocting notes and projects of a pacific tendency to be offered to the Emperor. There have been several of these, some framed at Constantinople, others at Paris. A short time ago the French Government prepared one, which it submitted to ours; Clarendon thought it would not answer, and told them so. They asked whether he had any objection to their sending it off to St. Petersburg and Vienna and making the experiment. He replied, none whatever, and though he did not think it would succeed, he should rejoice if it did, as, provided the affair could be settled, it did not matter how. In the meantime he drew up his own project of a Convention, which went to Paris, and received the cordial approbation of the Emperor; and this document is now on its way to Petersburg. In the meantime the French project was sent there, Castelbajac took it to Nesselrode, who read it very attentively, and said that he liked it very much, but that he could give no positive answer till he had submitted it to the Emperor. The same afternoon he saw the French minister again, and told him that he had laid the project before the Emperor Nicholas, and that His Majesty was not only satisfied, but grateful for it, 'non seulement satisfait, mais reconnaissant,' and that the only reason he did not at once close with it was that his ally, the Emperor of Austria, had also submitted a proposal, and he did not like to take another from another Court exclusively without previous communication with him. Clarendon thinks that his proposal will be still more agreeable to the Emperor than the French one, and that he will probably end in taking it; nor will there be any difficulty in this, because our's is so fully concurred in by France as to be in fact her's as much as our's.
SUCCESSION DUTIES BILL.
July 31st.—Having been at Goodwood the last week, I have not troubled myself with politics, either home or foreign, nor have any events occurred to excite interest. The most important matter here has been the division in the House of Lords on Monday last on the Succession Duties Bill, on which the Opposition were signally defeated. For a long time the Government were very doubtful of obtaining a majority, but their whippers-in were more sanguine at last. Great exertions were made on both sides, the Derbyites whipped up all the men they could lay their hands on, and the Government fetched their ministers from Paris and Brussels, and the Lord Lieutenant of Ireland. The majority was greater than either side expected, and Derby and his crew were exceedingly disconcerted, and Derby himself much out of humour. When Bessborough went over to him after the division, and said 'Lord Aberdeen wants to know if you will object to the Bill being read a third time on Thursday next,' he pettishly replied, 'The Bill may go to the devil for all I care; I shall take no further trouble about it.'
August 1st.—I saw Clarendon as usual yesterday (Sunday), when he read to me a letter from Sir Hamilton Seymour, giving an account of his delivering to Nesselrode the Convention which Clarendon sent over, as well as reading to him Clarendon's private letter, which was a stinging one, but very good. Nesselrode said of all the projects he liked that the best, and if it was tendered to them from Vienna, he thought it might do as the basis of an arrangement, but he could give no positive answer till he had submitted it to the Emperor. At the Cabinet on Saturday Clarendon read Seymour's letter, when his colleagues begged they might see the private letter of his which was alluded to, and he produced and read that likewise. It was generally approved of, but the next day Palmerston wrote a note to Clarendon, in which he expressed the warmest approbation of his note, and added that he had only refrained from saying all he thought of it at the Cabinet lest his approval might make others think it was too strong. He added that he rejoiced that the management of our foreign affairs was in such able hands, and that, in fact, he (Clarendon) could do and say what Palmerston himself could not have done. It was a very handsome letter, very satisfactory both to Clarendon personally and as showing that there is no disagreement on the Eastern Question in the Cabinet, or at least between Palmerston and Clarendon, which is the essential point. Their union and friendship are remarkable when we recollect their past antagonism and Palmerston's jealousy of Clarendon, and the persuasion of both himself and Lady Palmerston that Clarendon was always waiting to trip up his heels and get his place. All these jealousies and suspicions were, however, dissipated when Clarendon refused the Foreign Office last year, since which time they have been the best of friends, and Palmerston was quite satisfied at his having the Foreign Office. With regard to the chances of a pacific settlement, the assurances from St. Petersburg are all very favourable, but the acts of the Russian generals in the Principalities are quite inconsistent with them, and between these conflicting manifestations Clarendon is in no small doubt and apprehension as to the result.
NEGOTIATIONS WITH RUSSIA AND TURKEY.
London, August 8th.—Ever since last Monday, when Clarendon made a speech in the House of Lords on which a bad interpretation was put in reference to the question of peace or war, there has been a sort of panic, and the public mind, which refused at first to admit the possibility of war, suddenly rushed to the opposite conclusion, and everybody became persuaded that war was inevitable. The consequence was a great fall in the funds, and the depreciation of every sort of security. So matters remained till the end of the week. On Saturday afternoon I met Walewski, who told me he had that day received a letter from Castelbajac (the French Ambassador at St. Petersburg), informing him that the Emperor had signified his willingness to accept the proposal which was then expected from Vienna, and last night fresh news came that the proposal had arrived, and he had said he would take it, if the Turks would send an ambassador with it, exactly as it had been submitted to him. This I heard late last night, and Granville considered it conclusive of an immediate settlement. But this morning I went to Clarendon and found him not so sure, and not regarding the pacific solution as so indubitable; there still remain some important matters of detail to be settled, though certainly the affair wears a much more favourable aspect, and there is every reason to hope it will all end well. But while this proposal was concocted at Vienna, the Cabinet here (last Saturday week) made some small verbal alterations in it, so that ultimately it will not be presented for the Emperor's formal acceptance word for word the same, and if he wants a pretext to back out of his present engagement, he can therein find one, as he only agreed to take it if it was word for word the same. Then it has not yet been submitted to the Turks, and it is by no means sure they may not make difficulties, or that Stratford Canning may not raise obstacles instead of using all his influence to procure their agreement, so that Clarendon does not consider that we are out of the wood, though he expects on the whole that it will end well. If it does it will be the triumph of diplomacy, and a signal proof of the wisdom of moderation and patience. Granville says it will be principally owing to Aberdeen, who has been very staunch and bold in defying public clamour, abuse, and taunts, and in resisting the wishes and advice of Palmerston, who would have adopted a more stringent and uncompromising course.
August 9th.—At Court yesterday Aberdeen was quite confident of the settlement of the Eastern affair, and Brunnow, who was there with the Duchess of Leuchtenberg to see the Queen, very smiling. Clanricarde interrupted Clarendon in the House of Lords, and made a violent speech. Clarendon answered very well, without committing himself. The Government are in high spirits at the prospect of winding up this prosperous Session with the settlement of the Eastern Question: nothing else is wanting to their success.
August 11th.—I saw Clarendon yesterday. Nothing new, but he said he fully expected Stratford Canning would play some trick at Constantinople, and throw obstacles in the way of settlement. This seems to me hardly possible, unless he behaves foolishly as well as dishonestly, and it can hardly be believed that his temper and Russian antipathies will betray him into such extravagant conduct. It is, however, impossible to consider the affair as 'settled.'