Yesterday all the world went to the great naval review at Portsmouth, except myself. It appears to have been a fine but tedious sight, for Granville set off at 5.30 A.M., and only got back at one in the morning.
August 27th.—Since the 11th I have been absent from town, at Grimstone for York races, then at Hatchford, and since that gouty. While at York the Session closed with ?clat by a speech of Palmerston's in his most flashy and successful style. John Russell gave a night at last for the discussion of the Turkish question, and made a sort of explanation, which was tame, meagre, and unsatisfactory. After some speeches expressive of disappointment and disapprobation, Cobden made an oration in favour of peace at any price, and this drew up Palmerston, who fell upon him with great vigour and success. The discussion would have ended languidly and ill for the Government but for this brilliant improvisation, which carried the House entirely with it. It was not, however, if analysed and calmly considered, of much use to the Government as to their foreign policy, for it was only an answer to Cobden, and Palmerston did not say one word in defence of the policy which has been adopted, nor identify himself with it, as he might as well have done. Though there was nothing in it positively indicative of dissent and dissatisfaction, any one might not unfairly draw the inference that, if Palmerston had had his own way, he would have taken a more stringent and less patient course. However, nothing has been made of this, and on the whole his speech did good, because it closed the discussion handsomely, and left the impression of Palmerston's having cast his lot for good and all with his present colleagues, as is really the case.
TURKISH DIFFICULTIES.
The Session ended with a very flourishing and prosperous speech from the Throne, and nothing was wanting to the complete success of the Government but the settlement of the Turkish question, which, however, seems destined to be delayed some time longer; for the Turks have refused to accept the Vienna note, except with some modifications, though these are said to be so immaterial that we hope the Emperor will not object to them. But all this is vexatious, because it reopens the whole question, causes delay and uncertainty, and keeps the world in suspense and apprehension. Granville told me that what had occurred showed how much more sagacious Aberdeen had been as to this affair than Palmerston, the former having always maintained that there would be no difficulty with the Emperor, but if any arose it would be from the Turks; whereas Palmerston was always sure the Turks would make none, but that the Emperor would refuse all arrangements.
August 28th.—It seems the Turks, after a delay of ten days from receiving the proposition, sent it back to Vienna, asking for some not important alterations; but immediately afterwards they required a stipulation for the evacuation of the Principalities, and guarantees that they should not be occupied again. It is very improbable that the Emperor will listen to such conditions. Nesselrode has all along told Seymour that they (the Russians) mean in fulfilment of their pledges to evacuate the Principalities, as soon as they have got the required satisfaction, but that it must not be made a condition, and entreated him to abstain from any demand which might give an air of compulsion to the act, much in the same way as we have told Nesselrode he must not attempt to make any stipulation about the withdrawal of our fleet. Clarendon thinks that the Emperor is certain to reject the Turkish terms, and that the Turks are very capable of declaring war thereupon; for in their last communication they said that they were prepared for 'toutes les ?ventualit?s,' and he suspects that Stratford has not bon? fide striven to induce them to accept the proffered terms. Their rejection is the more unreasonable because the proposal is a hash-up of Menschikoff's original Note, and that which the Turks proposed in lieu of it, but in which the Turkish element preponderates, so that not only are their honour and dignity consulted, but in refusing they recede from their own original proposal.
The Queen is gone to Ireland, and Lord Granville with her, who is afterwards to attend her to Balmoral. This is new, because hitherto she has always had with her either the Premier or a Secretary of State. Granville is to be relieved when circumstances admit, but at present there is no other arrangement feasible. Aberdeen and Clarendon are both kept in town till the question is settled. Newcastle got leave to go to Clumber for his boys' holidays, and Her Majesty does not desire to have the Home Secretary.
But Charles Villiers told me last night that Lord Palmerston's influence and popularity in the House of Commons are greater than ever, and if this Government should be broken up by internal dissension, he would have no difficulty in forming another, and gathering round him a party to support him. This is what the Tories are anxiously looking to, desiring no better than to serve under him, and flattering themselves that in his heart he personally dislikes his colleagues, and in political matters agrees with themselves. They pay him every sort of court, never attack him, and not only defer to him on all occasions, but make all the difference they can between him and the rest of the Government; nor does he discourage or reject these civilities, though he does not invite them, or say or do anything inconsistent with his present position, but he probably thinks the disposition towards him of that large political party enhances his value to his own friends and increases his power, besides affording to him a good alternative in case anything should happen to break up the present Government or separate him from it.
September 2nd.—For the last week the settlement of this tedious Turkish question has appeared more remote than ever, and Clarendon was almost in despair when I saw him a few days ago, and the more so because he suspected that Lord Stratford was at the bottom of the difficulties raised by the Divan. However, according to the last accounts it would seem that Stratford was not to blame, and had done what he could to get the Turks to comply with the terms of the Conference. At this moment the affair wears rather a better aspect, and my own belief is that it will be settled. It is a great bore that it drags on in this way, creating alarm and uncertainty, shaking the funds, and affecting commerce.
LORD JOHN RUSSELL'S POSITION.
The Duke of Bedford, of whom I have seen nothing for a long time, called on me a few days ago, and talked over the present state of affairs, and the position of Lord John Russell. He said Lord John was now quite satisfied with it, and rejoiced at his own comparative freedom, and his immunity from the constant attacks of which he used to be the object; and he is now conscious that, by the part he has acted in waiving his own pretensions, he has not only not degraded himself, but has greatly raised himself in public estimation and acquired much credit and popularity, besides rendering the country a great service. He is very well with his colleagues, and gratified at the deference shown him, and the consideration he enjoys in the House of Commons. There, however, I know from other sources, all the popularity is engrossed by Palmerston and by Gladstone, and Lord John has foolishly suffered Palmerston to take his place as leader very often, because he chose to stay away at Richmond, and not come near the House.