The Duke took this opportunity of telling me what is now a very old story, but which he said he thought he had never told me before, and I am not sure whether he did or not. It was what happened to him at the time of the formation of this Government last year, of which he was evidently very proud. Just before the Derby Government broke down, and before that reunion at Woburn of which so much was said, the Prince gave him to understand that they should look to him for advice if anything occurred, which they were every day expecting. The Duke was at Woburn, and one morning when the hounds met there and half the county was at breakfast in the great hall, word was brought him that a messenger had come from Osborne with a letter for him. He found it was a letter from the Prince, in which he informed him that this was despatched by a safe and trustworthy hand, and nobody was to know of its being sent; that the Derby Government was at an end, and the Queen and Prince were anxious for his opinion on the state of affairs, the dispositions of public men, and what course they had better take. The Duke had recently been in personal communication with all the leaders, with Aberdeen and Lord John, Newcastle, Clarendon, Lansdowne, Palmerston, and others, and he was therefore apprised of all their sentiments and in a condition to give very full information to the Court. He sat himself down and with the greatest rapidity (his horse at the door to go hunting) wrote four or five sheets of paper containing the amplest details of the sentiments and views of these different statesmen, and ended by advising that the Queen should send for Lords Lansdowne and Aberdeen—as she did. Lord John had already told him he did not wish to be sent for. After this of course he could not resent the advice the Duke gave; and happily Lord John was firm in resisting the advice of some of those about him, and acted on the dictates of his own conscientious judgement and the sound advice of his friends.
OPPOSITION OF LORD STRATFORD.
September 3rd.—I dined last night t?te-?-t?te with Clarendon and heard all the details of the state of the Turkish question, and read the interesting correspondence of Cowley, with his accounts of his conversations with the Emperor, and many other things. Clarendon is very uneasy because he thinks the Emperor Nicholas' pride will not let him accept the Note as modified by the Turks, though he would have accepted the same Note if it had been presented originally by the Conference. This is one danger. The next is one at Constantinople, where there is a strong bigoted violent party for war, disposed to dethrone the Sultan and replace him by his brother. This brother (of whom I never heard before) is a man of more energy than the Sultan, and is connected with the fanatical party. The Sultan himself is enervated by early debauchery and continual drunkenness, and therefore in great danger should he by any unpopular measures provoke an outbreak from the violent faction. Clarendon thinks that Stratford has encouraged the resistance of the Divan to the proposals of the Conference, and that he might have persuaded the Turks to accept the terms if he had chosen to do so and set about it in a proper manner; but Clarendon says that he has lived there so long, and is animated with such a personal hatred of the Emperor, that he is full of the Turkish spirit; and this and his temper together have made him take a part directly contrary to the wishes and instructions of his Government. He thinks he wishes to be recalled that he may make a grievance of it, and come home to do all the mischief he can. Westmorland wrote word the other day that Stratford's language was very hostile to his Government and the Ministers of all the other Powers at Constantinople, thought he had actually resigned, and reported the fact to Vienna.
The most important question now pending is what to do with the fleets. They cannot remain much longer in Besika Bay, and must either retire to Vourla or enter the Dardanelles. The Emperor Napoleon wishes they should enter the Dardanelles, but only a little way, and not go on to Constantinople; and Clarendon takes the same view, proposing a mezzo termine. The Emperor professes an earnest desire for a peaceful solution, and the strongest determination to act in concert with England to the end, and his views seem very sensible and proper. But, notwithstanding this disposition, in which he probably is sincere, there is reason to believe that he is all the time keeping up a sort of secret and underhand communication with Russia, and the evidence of this is rather curious. It appears that he has recently written a letter to the Duchess of Hamilton, in which he says that he believes the Russians will not evacuate the Principalities, and that he does not care if they stay there. This letter the Duchess showed to Brunnow, and he imparted it to Aberdeen, who told Clarendon, but none of the other Ministers know anything of it. Clarendon wrote word of this to Cowley, and told him to make what use of it he thought fit. In the first instance he said something to Drouyn de Lhuys of the Emperor's entertaining views different from our's, which Drouyn repeated to the Emperor, who spoke to Cowley about it, and protested that he had no separate or different objects, when Cowley, without mentioning names, told him what he had heard of his having written. The Emperor made an evasive answer to this, but gave many assurances of his determination to act with us heartily and sincerely. This incident seems to have made a great impression both on Cowley and Clarendon, particularly as both know something more. Cowley says he knows that the Emperor has a private correspondence with Castelbajac, of which Drouyn de Lhuys is ignorant, and Seymour writes to Clarendon that he has observed for some time past a great lukewarmness on the part of the French Minister in pressing the Russian Government, and an evident leaning to them. As the Duchess of Hamilton has no intimacy with Brunnow, it appears very extraordinary that she should communicate to him a letter of the Emperor's, and such a letter, which would be a great indiscretion unless he had secretly desired her to do so; and all these circumstances taken together look very like a little intrigue between the Emperor and the Russian Court, which would also be very consistent with his secret, false, and clandestine mode of conducting his affairs. It is probable enough that he may wish to keep on good terms with Russia and at the same time maintain his intimate connexion with England. That he is bent on avoiding war there can be no doubt, and for very good reasons, for France is threatened with a scarcity, and he is above all things bent on keeping the people supplied with food at low prices; and for this object the French Government is straining every nerve and prepared to make any amount of pecuniary sacrifice; but the necessity for this, which absorbs all their means, renders it at the same time particularly desirable to maintain peace in Europe.
DISPOSAL OF THE FLEET.
There never was a case so involved in difficulties and complications of different sorts, all the particulars of which I heard last night; but the affair is so tangled, that it is impossible to weave it into an intelligible and consistent narrative, and I can only jot down fragments, which may hereafter serve to explain circumstances connected with the d?nouement, whenever it takes place. John Russell and Palmerston are both come to town, so that a little Cabinet will discuss this matter. Palmerston is extremely reasonable, does not take the part of the Turks, but on the contrary blames them severely for making difficulties he thinks absurd and useless, but is still for not letting them be crushed. He is on the best terms with Clarendon, and goes along with him very cordially in his policy on this question. Both Palmerston and Lord John seem to agree with Clarendon on the question of the disposal of the fleet better than Aberdeen, who is always for trusting the Emperor, maintaining peace, and would be quite contented to send the fleet to Vourla or Tenedos, and would see with regret the more energetic course of entering the Dardanelles. However, there is no chance of any material difference on this score, and I have no doubt, if the question is not settled before the end of the month, the fleets will anchor within the Straits and there remain.
I was glad to find that the Queen has consented to let Palmerston take his turn at Balmoral, and Aberdeen has informed him that he is to go there. It was done by Aberdeen speaking to the Prince at Osborne, who said he thought there would be no difficulty. The Queen acquiesced with the good sense she generally shows on such occasions, being always open to reason, and ready to consent to whatever can be proved to her to be right or expedient.
LORD STRATFORD'S GOOD FAITH.
September 4th.—I went to Winchester yesterday, and fell in with Graham in the train, so we went together and had a great deal of talk, mostly on the Eastern Question. He thinks the Emperor of Russia will not accept the Turkish alterations, and he is very hot against Stratford, to whom he attributes all the difficulties. He has heard that Stratford has held language hostile to the Government, and he is inclined to think not only that he has acted treacherously towards his employers, but that proofs of his treachery might be obtained, and he is all for getting the evidence if possible, and acting upon it at once, by recalling him; he thinks the proofs might be obtained through the Turkish Ministers, and if they can be, he would not stop to enquire who might be displeased, or what the effect might be, but do it at once. He acknowledges, however, that it would not do to act on surmises or reports, and that nothing but clear proofs of Stratford's misconduct, such as will satisfy Parliament, would render such a step justifiable or safe. With regard to the fleets, he says there is no reason why they should not remain in Besika Bay, and it is a mistake to suppose they could not, and he is very decidedly against their entering the Dardanelles in any case, because it would be contrary to treaty and afford the Emperor of Russia a just casus belli; and he maintains that his having (contrary to treaties and international rights) occupied the Principalities affords no reason why we should infringe them in another direction. When this question comes to be discussed, his voice will evidently be for not entering the Dardanelles, though he acknowledges that we cannot retreat while the Russians remain where they are. He talked a great deal about Palmerston, of whom he has some distrust, and fancied he has been in communication with Stratford, and that he would concur with him in his proceedings, and he expressed great satisfaction when I told him that Palmerston and Clarendon were on the most cordial and confidential terms, and that the former entirely disapproved of the conduct of the Turks (which is that of Stratford) in regard to the Note. He thinks Palmerston looks to being Prime Minister, if anything happened to Aberdeen, but that neither he nor John Russell could hold the office, as neither would consent to the elevation of the other. On the whole, he inclines to the opinion that Palmerston has made up his mind to go on with this Government and his present colleagues, that he means to act fairly and honestly with and by them, and has no arri?re pens?e towards the Tories, though he is not sorry to have them always looking to him, and paying him, as they do, excessive court. It ensures him great support and an easy life in the House of Commons, where, however, he says Palmerston has done very little this year, and he does not seem much impressed with the idea of his having gained very considerably there, or obtained a better position than he had before.
September 8th.—I saw Clarendon on Sunday. There is nothing new, but he said he would lay two to one the Emperor does not accept the modified Note; it will be a contest between his pride and his interest, for his army is in such a state of disease and distress that he is in no condition to make war; on the other hand, he cannot without extreme humiliation accept the Turkish Note. What will happen, if he refuses, nobody can possibly divine. The four Ministers met to discuss the matter, and were very harmonious; Palmerston not at all for violent measures, and Clarendon said he himself was the most warlike of the four. I told him of my journey with Graham and all that he had said. He replied that he knew Graham was very violent against Stratford, but that it would be impossible to make out any case against him, as he certainly had read to the Turkish Minister all his (Clarendon's) despatches and instructions, and he gave the most positive assurances, which it would be difficult to gainsay, that he had done everything in his power to induce the Turkish Government to give way to the advice of the Conference, and whatever his secret wishes and opinions might be, there was no official evidence to be had that he had failed in doing his duty fairly by his own Government; therefore it would be out of the question to recall him.