September 20th.—At Doncaster all last week; I found Clarendon yesterday very much alarmed at the prospect in the East. He thinks it will be impossible to restrain the Turkish war party; he told me that the Conference at Vienna had imparted their Note to the Turkish Ambassador there, and both he and his dragoman had expressed their entire approbation of it. They had considered this to afford a strong presumption that it would not be unpalateable at Constantinople, but it was not sent there because this would have occasioned so much delay, and it was desirable to get the Russians out of the Principalities as speedily as possible. The Russian generals had actually received orders to prepare for the evacuation, which the Emperor would have commanded the instant he heard that the Turks were willing to send the Vienna Note. The Emperor Napoleon has again given the strongest assurances of his determination in no case whatever to separate his policy from ours, his resolution to adhere to the English alliance, and to maintain peace ? tout prix, which he frankly owns to be indispensably necessary to the interests of his country. The Austrians are already beginning to hang back from taking any decided part in opposition to Russia, and while still ready to join in making every exertion to maintain peace, they are evidently determined if war breaks out to take no part against Russia, and this disposition is sure to be improved by the interview which is about to take place between the Emperors of Russia and Austria.
PROSPECTS OF WAR.
September 26th.—I have been at Hatchford all last week. I saw Clarendon on Thursday before I went there, and heard that two ships of each fleet were gone up the Dardanelles,[1] and that the rest would probably soon follow, as the French were now urging that measure. He was then going to Aberdeen to propose calling the Cabinet together, the state of affairs becoming more critical every hour, and apparently no chance of averting war. The prospect was not the brighter from the probability of a good deal of difference of opinion when they do meet. He showed me a letter from Palmerston, in which he spoke very coolly of such a contingency as war with Russia and Austria, and with his usual confidence and flippancy of the great blows that might be inflicted on both Powers, particularly alluding to the possible expulsion of the Austrians from Italy, an object of which he has probably never lost sight. Meanwhile the violence and scurrility of the press here exceeds all belief. Day after day the Radical and Tory papers, animated by very different sentiments and motives, pour forth the most virulent abuse of the Emperor of Russia, of Austria, and of this Government, especially of Aberdeen.
[1] [The British vessels were steamers, the 'Retribution' and another. There was at that time only one line-of-battle ship in each fleet having steam power; all the other vessels of the line were sailing ships.]
[CHAPTER IV.]
The Conference at Olm?tz—The Turks declare War—Lord Palmerston's Views—Lord Palmerston lauded by the Radicals and the Tories—Failure of the Pacific Policy—Lord Aberdeen desires to resign—Lord John to be Prime Minister—Obstacles to Lord John's Pretensions—Danger of breaking up the Government—Lord John's Wilfulness and Unpopularity—Alliance of the Northern Powers defeated by Manteuffel—Conflict of the two Policies—Meeting of Parliament discussed—French Refugees in Belgium—General Baraguay d'Hilliers sent to Constantinople—Mr. Reeve returns from the East—Lord John's Reform Bill—The Emperor of Russia writes to the Queen—Sir James Graham's Views on Reform, &c.—Opponents of the Reform Scheme—Abortive Attempts at Negotiation—The Four Powers agree to a Protocol—Lord Palmerston threatens to secede—Lord Palmerston resigns on the Reform Scheme—Lord Palmerston opposed to Reform—Effects of Lord Palmerston's Resignation—Conciliatory Overtures—Lord Lansdowne's Position—Lord Aberdeen's Account—Lady Palmerston makes up the Dispute—Lord Palmerston withdraws his Resignation—Baraguay d'Hilliers refuses to enter the Black Sea—War resolved on—Review of the Transaction.
October 4th.—I went to The Grove on Saturday, and spent great part of the afternoon on Sunday reading the Eastern Question despatches, printed in a Blue Book to be laid by-and-by before Parliament. On Sunday came Westmorland's account of his interviews with the Emperor of Russia and Nesselrode at Olm?tz, which sounded very satisfactory, for the Emperor was very gracious and pacific, and Nesselrode in his name disclaimed in the most positive terms any intention of aggrandising himself at the expense of Turkey or of claiming any protectorate, or asserting any claims inconsistent with the sovereignty and independence of the Sultan, and moreover signified his willingness to make a declaration to that effect in such form and manner as might be hereafter agreed upon. All this was very well, and served to confirm the notion that, if some sensible men, really desirous of settling the question, could be brought together, the accomplishment would not be difficult; but the distance which separates the negotiating parties from each other, and the necessity of circulating every proposition through so many remote capitals, and the consequent loss of time, have rendered all conferences and pacific projects unavailing.
TURKISH DECLARATION OF WAR.