October 16th.—I came to town yesterday morning, and in the afternoon went to the Foreign Office, and saw Clarendon, to whom I imparted what the Duke of Bedford had told me. He said he knew it all, Aberdeen having told him what had passed between John Russell and himself; but having made Clarendon give his word of honour that he would not say a word of it to anybody, so he said, 'I would not mention it even to you, to whom I tell everything.' He then, however, went into the whole question, and told me what had passed, which did not exactly agree with the Duke's story. According to Clarendon, Lord John went to Lord Aberdeen before Parliament was up, and told him he could not consent to go on in his present position, to which Aberdeen replied, 'Very well, you only meet my own wishes, and you know I always told you that I should be at any time ready to resign my place to you.'
Nothing more seems to have taken place at that time, nor till lately, when Lord John went again to Aberdeen, and repeated his determination not to go on; but this time the communication does not seem to have been received by Aberdeen with the same ready acquiescence in the proposed change, and some plain speaking took place between them. I infer, but as Clarendon did not expressly say so I put it dubiously, that Aberdeen had spoken to Gladstone and ascertained that he would by no means agree to the substitution of John Russell, and should go with Aberdeen if he retired. At all events, while Aberdeen told him that he was prepared, if he wished it, to broach the matter to his colleagues, he intimated to him that it was evident he wanted to turn him out, and put himself in his place, but that he (Aberdeen) could not agree to retire at this moment, and before Parliament met, and that Lord John had better well consider the step he was about to take, as it would in all probability break up the Government, and asked him if he was prepared to encounter the odium of doing so, more especially as he must remember that he had only consented to form this Government on Lord John's own assurance to him that he was himself unable to form one. He asked him if he was secure of Palmerston's concurrence in the change he proposed, and he replied that he did not expect to find any difficulty in that quarter. This was the substance of what passed between them, Aberdeen being evidently a good deal nettled, and thinking Lord John is behaving very ill. This is Clarendon's opinion also, and he thinks, if Lord John persists, the Government will be inevitably broken up, for a considerable part of the Cabinet will certainly not consent to have Lord John again placed at the head of the Government. Clarendon does not believe a word of Palmerston's being a party to it, and he knows that both Gladstone and Newcastle would resign. Graham he is not sure of, but inclines to think he would retire with Aberdeen, especially if Aberdeen has any compulsion or ill-usage to complain of. For the moment, however, this storm has blown over, as Lord John has signified to Aberdeen that he does not mean to press the matter again for the present. The Queen, when it was mentioned to her, was anything but approving of or consenting to the change.
THEIR MISCHIEVOUS EFFECTS.
In all this matter there is little doubt that Lord John has been instigated by his connexions, and they none of them, Lord John himself included, have sense enough to see that the course he is adopting is quite suicidal, and would be not less fatal to his own reputation and popularity than to the Government he belongs to. He failed as Prime Minister, and no credit attended his Administration, and no regret his fall. The popularity he lost, he in good measure regained by his conduct on the formation of this Government, when he waived his own pretensions, and for the public good consented, after having held the first place, to accept the second; but the world does not know how reluctantly and grudgingly he did this, and how sorely his pride and vanity suffered on that occasion. The position he occupied of leader of the House of Commons without an office was anomalous, and many thought it objectionable, but he himself insisted on it, and it proved successful. The House of Commons not only accepted it, but were pleased to see a man so eminent eschewing office with its functions and emoluments, and gratuitously devoting himself to the service and the business of Parliament. He became popular again in the House, and would have been more so if he had not chosen to quit the Treasury Bench early every afternoon, and go down to Richmond, leaving Palmerston to do his work, and ingratiate himself with the House. Aberdeen reminded Lord John that this position, which he now found intolerable, was one he had chosen to make for himself; that he had not only declared he could not form a Government, but that every office had been at his disposal, and he had been invited to take the greatest offices, or, if he preferred it, any smaller one, but that he had insisted on holding none. Aberdeen is quite right not to resign now, or before Parliament meets, where he must appear as Minister to defend his own policy.
I expect that Lord John will not renew his demands for some time, if at all; but if he does, this is what will probably take place. The Government will be broken up, Lord John will try to form one and will fail, and the Government will again be constituted minus Lord John. Nobody would, I think, go out with him. This is supposing (which I think certain) that Palmerston would not make common cause with him, but prefer to remain with the rest. There would then remain the great difficulty of the lead of the House of Commons and the part Palmerston would play; but, dangerous as it would be, it would probably be found necessary to trust him with the lead, most distasteful though it would be both to Aberdeen and to the Queen.
October 18th.—The Emperor of Russia moved heaven and earth to bring about a new Holy Alliance between himself, Austria, and Prussia, in which he would have succeeded if it had not been for the wisdom and firmness of Manteuffel,[1] who was proof against all his seductions. Austria consented, but only on condition that Prussia did likewise. The King of Prussia would have given way with his characteristic weakness, but Manteuffel would not hear of it, and contrived to keep his master straight. In an interview of two hours between the Emperor and Manteuffel t?te-?-t?te, the Emperor employed all the means he could think of to prevail on the Prussian Minister, but all in vain; he refused positively to allow Prussia to depart from her neutrality. This had the effect of keeping Austria neutral also, and that of making the Emperor more inclined to peace; but the Turkish declaration of war and peremptory summons to him to quit the Principalities leave him no alternative but that of taking up the gauntlet thus thrown down.
[1] [Count Manteuffel was the Prussian Minister for Foreign Affairs, and the leading member of the Prussian Cabinet. He was accused of sacrificing Prussian interests to those of Austria at the Conference of Olm?tz; but in fact he succeeded in defeating what would have been a very formidable confederacy of the German Powers with Russia.]
OBJECTIONS OF LORD PALMERSTON.
November 2nd.—All last week at Newmarket, during which nothing of moment occurred but the renewed attempts at negotiation, and the consent of the Turks to defer the commencement of hostilities. I saw Clarendon the day before yesterday, who told me how matters stood, and showed me a despatch just received from Vienna with a copy of a very moderate and pacific Note from Nesselrode to Buol, showing that there is every disposition at St. Petersburg to patch matters up. Clarendon told me that he was heartily sick of the whole question, in which the double trouble and difficulty were cast upon him of reconciling the Russians and the Turks and of preserving agreement in the Cabinet, where Aberdeen was always opposing measures of hostility towards Russia, and Palmerston for pushing them forward. He said he steered between the two, and that he and John Russell were more nearly agreed than any of the others; he told me at the same time a characteristic trait of Palmerston. The Turks having determined to plunge into war against the advice of their protectors, especially against our's, and it having been made known to us that the Sultan and his Ministers were not disinclined to be guided by us, but that they were themselves overruled and driven to this extreme course by the Grand Council, it became necessary in Clarendon's opinion to notify to the Turkish Government that, since they had thought fit to take their own independent course, we should reserve to ourselves the right of acting according to our own discretion, and not consider ourselves bound to be dragged into a war at the heels of the Grand Council, which is an assembly of ruffians and fanatics, by whom it would be utterly inconsistent with the dignity of our Crown that our policy should be governed and influenced. It seems too that this is a point on which the Queen feels very strongly, and is exceedingly anxious that the honour and dignity of the Crown should not be compromised. Accordingly Clarendon drew up a despatch to this effect, to which the Cabinet acceded, and Palmerston also, though with some reluctance. However, he not only saw the proposed despatch, but he made some alteration in it with his own hand, thereby of course subscribing to it. Just after this Clarendon went to Windsor, and submitted the despatch to the Queen and the Prince; they objected to it that it was not strong enough in their sense, but Clarendon prevailed upon them to waive their objections, and, as it had been agreed to in the Cabinet, to let it go. But before it was gone Clarendon received a letter from Palmerston, strongly objecting to the despatch altogether, and desiring Clarendon to inform Lord Aberdeen that he would be no party to such a communication. This was extremely embarrassing. Clarendon spoke to Aberdeen, and afterwards (at Aberdeen's suggestion) informed the Queen what had occurred. Her Majesty said, 'I advise you not to attach much importance to this communication. I know Lord Palmerston from much experience, and it is probably only an attempt to bully, which, if you take no notice of it, you will hear no more of.' The result justified the Queen's sagacity, for Clarendon sent off the despatch, and at the same time wrote word to Palmerston that he had done so, giving him sundry reasons why he could not do otherwise, to which he received in reply a very good-humoured letter, merely saying that, as it was gone, it was useless to say any more about it, and probably it would do no harm.
There has been talk abroad and discussion in the Cabinet about the meeting of Parliament. Lord John and Lord Aberdeen both wished Parliament to meet, the first because he is always hankering after the House of Commons, the latter because he wished Parliament to decide on the question of peace or war, so that in the one alternative his hands might be strengthened, or in the other he might have a pretext for resigning. But both Clarendon and Palmerston were much against it, and now that there is a fresh prospect of peace, it is rendered more unnecessary and undesirable.