King Leopold is here, still uneasy (though less than he was) upon the subject of his d?m?l?s with the Emperor of the French. The cause of them is the libellous publications of the French refugees in Belgium. They compose the most outrageous attacks of a personal nature on him and the Empress, which they have printed in Belgium, and get these papers smuggled into France, and disseminated amongst the lower classes, and particularly the troops. This naturally gives the Emperor great offence, and Leopold would afford him redress if he could; but the Constitution was made by journalists, and the unrestrained liberty of the press is so interwoven with the Constitution, that the Legislature itself has no power to deal with the case, nor any power short of a Constituent Assembly. All this Leopold has submitted to his powerful neighbour, and their relations seem to be more amicable; for very civil letters have passed between the two monarchs, through the Prince de Chimay, whom Leopold sent to compliment the Emperor when he went lately to Lille.
November 10th.—All attempts at settling the Eastern Question by Notes have been rudely interrupted by the actual commencement of hostilities. Meanwhile the Notes sped their way, but at Vienna it was deemed no longer possible to settle it in this manner, but that there must now be a regular treaty of peace, the terms of which the Allies might prescribe, and there is now a question of having a Congress or Conference here, to carry on the affair. It is, however, difficult to make out what the French are at, and, with all our intimacy, we must keep on our guard against all contingencies on the part of our Imperial neighbour. Nobody knows what is his real motive for sending Baraguay d'Hilliers to Constantinople. Francis Baring, when I told him of this appointment, said it could be only for the purpose of quarrelling, for he was the most violent of men, and was certain to quarrel with whomsoever he had to deal. If this be so, his quarrelling with Lord Stratford is inevitable, and it is by no means improbable that Louis Napoleon is tired of playing second fiddle to us, and sends this General there for the express purpose of counteracting our superior influence, and, by the tender of military counsel and aid, to substitute his own for ours.
LORD STRATFORD'S INFLUENCE.
Reeve is just returned from the East, having spent some time at Constantinople, and he came home by Vienna. Lord Stratford treated him with great kindness and hospitality, and talked to him very openly. He says that Stratford exercised a great but not unlimited influence and control over the Turkish Government, and of course is very jealous of the influence he possesses; for example, he boasted to Reeve that he had carried a great point, and had procured the appointment of the candidate he favoured as Greek Patriarch, an interference which, if it had been made by the Emperor of Russia, whose concern it is much more than our's, would have excited in us great indignation. Such an exercise of influence and in such a matter, of which the Russians are well aware, is calculated to exasperate them, and it is not unnatural that the Emperor should feel that, if any foreign influence is to prevail in Turkey, he has a better right than any other Power to establish his own. Reeve has a very poor opinion of the power, resources, and political condition of Turkey, and does not doubt the military success of the Russians. He says that the corruption is enormous—everybody bribes or is bribed. The Greek Patriarch whom Stratford got appointed had to pay large sums to Redschid Pasha and his son. The whole State is rotten to the core.
EFFECTS OF DEMOCRATIC REFORM.
November 12th.—This morning John Russell breaks ground on the Reform plan, by referring his scheme to a Committee of the Cabinet, which is to meet at his house, consisting, besides himself, of Granville, Newcastle, Graham, Charles Wood, and Palmerston. I am afraid he will propose a lower franchise, probably 5l., in spite of many warnings and the signs of the times, which are very grave and alarming—nothing but strikes and deep-rooted discontent on the part of the working classes. I am in correspondence with Ellesmere on the subject, and have sent his letters to John Russell, who does not appear disposed to admit the force of his reasoning against lowering the franchise. This Committee will probably be on the whole favourable to a democratic measure, Lord John from old prejudices and obstinacy, Graham from timidity, Newcastle because he has espoused Liberal principles; Granville will be inclined to go with Lord John, and Palmerston alone is likely to stand out against a democratic scheme, unless Charles Wood should go with him, of whose opinions on the question of Reform I know nothing. Aberdeen is himself a Reformer, but I hear he is resolved not to consent to a 5l. franchise. I confess to great misgivings about this project in the present state of the country, and dread the further progress of democratic power. The success of the great Reform Bill and the experiences of twenty years without any of the apprehensions of the anti-Reformers having been realised, are now in my opinion sources of danger, as they create an opinion that progress, as it is called, is not only necessary, but perfectly safe. It consoles me for growing old that I shall not live to see the confusion in which this well-ordered State is likely to be involved, the period of peril and suffering it will have to go through, and the reaction, which will restore order and tranquillity at the expense of that temperate and rational freedom, which we alone of all the nations of the earth are in possession of. I see no reason why, if we choose recklessly, and without any cause, to cast away the good we enjoy, we should be exempted from paying the penalty which our folly and wickedness would so richly deserve. The above question in all its ramifications is infinitely more important than the Russian and Turkish quarrel, but there is no saying how the former may be indirectly and consequentially affected through the latter by means of the political differences which may arise out of it. Everything now looks black in the political horizon, and the war which has begun between the principals can hardly fail to extend itself sooner or later to the collateral parties.
November 15th.—Yesterday morning having met Clarendon on the railway, he from Windsor, I from Hillingdon, I got into the carriage and went home with him. He told me all he had to tell, of what he had to go through with the conflicting proposals of Palmerston and Aberdeen in the Cabinet: the latter as averse as ever to any strong measures, and always full of consideration for the Emperor; the former anxious for war, and with the same confidence and rashness which were so conspicuous in him during the Syrian question, insisting that nothing will be so easy as to defeat Russia, and he now goes the length of urging that none of the old treaties between her and the Porte should be renewed. All this jactance, however, does not go much beyond words, for he evinces no disposition to separate from his colleagues or to insist on any course which the majority of the Cabinet object to.
The Emperor of Russia has taken the unusual step of writing an autograph letter to the Queen. Brunnow, who was rather puzzled, took the letter to Aberdeen, and asked what he was to do with it. Aberdeen told him to take it to Clarendon, who sent it to the Queen. She sent it to him to read, and he suggested certain heads of an answer, but did not communicate the letter, nor the fact of its having been received, to any one but Aberdeen. The Queen wrote an answer in French, and he says a very good one.
Cowley has sent him an account of a conversation he lately had with the Emperor Napoleon, in which he said that the condition of France and the rise in the price of provisions, so deeply affecting the working classes, made him more than ever bent upon preserving peace, and he proposed that the Powers should be invited to concur with England and France in drawing up a scheme of pacification and arrangement, which should be tendered to the belligerents, and whichever should refuse to accept it should be treated as an enemy. Clarendon said that there were many objections to this plan, but he seemed to believe in the sincerity of the Emperor's desire for peace, in spite of the opposite presumption afforded by Baraguay d'Hilliers' mission, and its accompaniment of French officers. He attributes that mission to the wounded vanity of France, and the determination of the Government to send some man who shall dispute the influence of Stratford, and assert that of France. The character of Stratford had been fully explained to Baraguay d'Hilliers, and he went, ostensibly at least, with instructions and an intention to act with him in harmony, but this the character of the two ambassadors will probably render quite impossible.
The Queen told Clarendon an anecdote of Palmerston, showing how exclusively absorbed he is with foreign politics. Her Majesty has been much interested in and alarmed at the strikes and troubles in the North, and asked Palmerston for details about them, when she found he knew nothing at all. One morning, after previous enquiries, she said to him, 'Pray, Lord Palmerston, have you any news?' To which he replied, 'No, Madam, I have heard nothing; but it seems certain the Turks have crossed the Danube.'