LORD JOHN RUSSELL'S REFORM BILL.
In the afternoon I called on Graham at the Admiralty, and had a long talk with him about the Government and its prospects, and the disposition and intentions of John Russell and of Palmerston. He is, contrary to custom, very cheerful and sanguine on these points; he was apprised of all that Lord John has said and done, but except on one occasion, just about the time of the prorogation, has had no communication with Lord John himself on the subject. He is now satisfied that Lord John has abandoned his designs, and has made up his mind to go on as he is, and he infers this from his frank and friendly conduct about the Reform Bill, which he has not kept to himself, but submitted to a Committee for the purpose of bringing it before all his colleagues in a very good spirit, and quite willing to have Palmerston on this Committee, from whom the greatest opposition was to be expected. Graham said their first meeting had gone off very pleasantly, and Palmerston had urged much less objection than he had expected; he thinks therefore that his own reflexions and his knowledge of the difficulties which would oppose themselves to his purpose have determined Lord John to acquiesce in his present position, nor is he afraid of Palmerston separating himself from this Cabinet, thinking that at his age he will not speculate so deeply for the chance of greater power and a higher place, to be purchased at the certain sacrifice of all his social relations and personal connexions, and he therefore expects Palmerston will conform to the general sentiments and decisions of his colleagues, both as to foreign policy and to Reform. Graham said he approved entirely of Lord John's scheme, and thought his proposed measure good and safe.
November 27th.—Council at Windsor on Friday 25th. The Queen was afflicted by the Queen of Portugal's death, though they never saw each other but once when they were children. I heard the particulars of the Reform Bill, which (if there is to be one at all) seems as little mischievous as can be. It seems to have encountered little or no opposition in the Cabinet, and Lord John considers it as having been accepted and settled there. Lord Lansdowne has not pronounced himself positively; but though, no doubt, he dislikes it exceedingly, they think he will not retire upon it, and up to the present time he has indicated no such intention. Graham, who is always frightened, told me on Friday he was very uneasy lest Lansdowne should decline to be a party to it.
Palmerston has written a letter to Lord John, strong in the beginning, denouncing the measure as unnecessary and unwise, and complaining of his having originally committed his colleagues to it, by declaring his own opinion without any previous consultation and concert with them. Then, after criticising the Bill (ably, as I am told), he ends by announcing that he shall consent to it. He sent copies of this letter to Aberdeen and to Lansdowne.
I brought Clarendon from the station to Downing Street, when he told me that he had begun some fresh attempts at renewing negotiations. The proposal of the Emperor Napoleon to force terms on the two parties would not do, but he had sent a proposal of some sort (I could not exactly make out what), which, contrary to his expectation, Buol had agreed to; but he did not seem very sanguine about any result from this beginning. He said nothing could exceed the difficulties of the case, nor the embarrassments of his own position. The Turks are now indisposed to agree to anything, or to make any concessions whatever, and of course the Emperor of Russia neither will nor can make peace and withdraw, without some plausible satisfaction. Then at home the difficulty is just as great between Palmerston, who is all for going ahead, and wants nothing less than war with Russia, and Aberdeen, who is in the other extreme—objecting to everything, and proposing nothing. John Russell is very reasonable, and agrees almost entirely with Clarendon; but whenever he thinks he is going to be outbid by Palmerston, is disposed to urge some violent measures also. He said he had a regular scene with Aberdeen the other day. After this Note (or whatever it was) had been discussed and agreed to in the Cabinet, and all settled, Aberdeen came into his room, and began finding fault with it, and raising all sorts of objections, when Clarendon, out of all patience, broke out: 'Really, this is too bad. You come now, after it has all been settled in the Cabinet where you let it pass, and make all sorts of objections. And this is the way you do about everything; you object to all that is proposed, and you never suggest anything yourself. What is it you want? Will you say what you would have done?' He declares he said all this with the greatest vivacity, being really exasperated. Aberdeen had nothing to say, and knocked under. The truth seems to be that the attacks upon him in the newspapers (though they don't know it) are pretty well justified, and very little exaggerated; nor is the idea of Palmerston's real inclination much mistaken. They have by accident very nearly hit upon the truth. Aberdeen, it seems, objects particularly to have any Conference here, and if there is to be anything of the kind, it seems likely to take place at Vienna, where, however, somebody would be sent to assist, if not to supersede, Westmorland.
PROTOCOL OF THE FOUR POWERS.
December 10th.—The Protocol just signed at Vienna brings the four Powers together again, and Austria not only signed it with alacrity, but Buol told Westmorland, if the Emperor of Russia was found unmanageable, 'Nous irons avec vous jusqu'au bout.' The Turks are now desired to say on what terms they will make peace, and I expect they will reply that they will not make peace at all till the Principalities are evacuated. It seems very doubtful whether this fresh opening will lead to any result between two Powers so impracticable as the belligerents.
The Duke of Bedford has been endeavouring to persuade Lord John to reconsider the franchise in his Reform Bill, and Lord John tells him not to be afraid of its going too low, and that there is more chance of its appearing too niggardly. Aberdeen said it was not yet settled. Meanwhile, the Bill is drawn and privately printed. Lord John considers it to have been accepted by the Cabinet, and that he is sure of the acquiescence of the two principal dissentients—Lansdowne and Palmerston. The former went out of town, only saying that he hoped the landed interest would have its due share of influence. Palmerston's letter I have already mentioned; but the other day Lady Palmerston held forth to the Duke against the Bill, and said that it was not settled at all, but was still under the consideration of the Cabinet; from which he infers that Palmerston is still making or prepared to make objections and difficulties. Between Reform and the Eastern Question, I think this Government would infallibly be broken up but from the impossibility of another being formed. I am still persuaded Palmerston will not try a new combination, and break with all his old friends and associates for the purpose of putting himself at the head of some fresh but unformed combination. Great as his ambition is, he will not sacrifice so much to it, and risk so much as this would oblige him to do.
December 12th.—I begin to think that I am after all mistaken as to Palmerston's intentions, and that his ambition will drive him to sacrifice everything and risk everything, in spite of his age and of all the difficulties he will have to encounter. I have said what passed between the Duke of Bedford and Lady Palmerston about Reform. This morning the Duke of Bedford came here, and told me he had called on Clarendon on Saturday, when he said to Clarendon that he was very uneasy about Palmerston, and thought he was meditating something, though he did not know exactly what he was at. Clarendon interrupted him—'Certainly, he is meditating breaking up the Government; in fact, he told me so.' At this moment it was announced that two or three foreign Ministers were waiting to see him, when he abruptly broke off the conference, and they parted. I said, 'Depend upon it, what Clarendon alluded to was not the Reform Bill, but the Eastern Question; and it is on that that Palmerston is making a stir.' The Duke said he thought so too; indeed, he was sure of it, because Clarendon did not trouble himself about Reform, and he had already told him more than once what excessive trouble and annoyance he had had between the widely opposite views and opinions of Aberdeen and Palmerston, and that he had only been able to go on at all from the agreement between Lord John and himself. However, Lord John is to see Aberdeen this morning, and his brother afterwards; and before the day is over we shall learn something more of this disagreeable matter. My belief is that the differences between Aberdeen and Palmerston have arrived at a height which threatens a break up, and that, with reference to this occurring, Palmerston is also going back on the Reform question; that if he does separate from the Government, he may reserve to himself to work both questions. But I refrain from further speculations, as in a few hours they will be resolved into certainty of some sort.