In this war the Russians have hitherto exhibited a great inferiority in their conduct to that which they displayed in their campaigns from 1807 to 1812, when they fought the battles of Eylau and Borodino against Napoleon. The position of Alma must have been much stronger than that of Borodino, and yet how much more stoutly the latter was defended than the former. Then their having allowed the allies to land without molestation is inconceivable, and there is no doubt that they might have attacked Raglan with great effect as he emerged from the wood on his march to Balaklava, but all these opportunities they entirely neglected. I expect, however, that they will make a vigorous defence at Sebastopol, and that the place will not be taken without a bloody struggle and great loss of life.
RUSSIAN TRADE.
Within the last few days a very important question has arisen, the decision of which is a very difficult matter. It has been found that the commerce of Russia has not been materially diminished, as their great staples (hemp, &c.) have passed regularly through the Prussian ports, being brought there by land, and it is now desired to devise some means of putting an end to this exportation. Clarendon has written to Reeve about it, and Granville has obtained returns of the amount of hemp and linseed imported from Russia in past years and in the present, from which it appears that though there is a diminution it is not a very considerable one. The effect produced is only the inevitable consequence of the policy that was adopted deliberately and after great consideration at the beginning of the war; and how that policy is to be adhered to, and the consequences complained of prevented, is the problem to be solved. A blockade of the Prussian ports in the Baltic has been suggested—a measure, as it seems to me, very questionable in point of right and political morality, and certain to be attended by the most momentous consequences. Such a measure may not be without precedent, or something resembling precedent; but no Power with anything like self-respect or pride could tamely submit to such an outrage and such an insult, and as it would certainly afford a casus belli, Prussia could hardly, without abandoning all claim to be considered a great Power, abstain from declaring war instanter; and, whatever may be the sentiments of the Prussian nation and of the Germans generally with regard to Russia, it is by no means unlikely that such an arbitrary and imperious proceeding would enlist the sympathies and the passions of all Germans without exception in opposition to us, and to France if she became a party to it.
Newmarket.—Granville told me on Saturday morning that he was much alarmed at the disposition evinced by John Russell, and he expects an explosion sooner or later.
London, October 30th.—I returned last night and found a meeting of the Committee of Council settled for to-day, to consider the question of stopping Russian trade. Wilson has drawn up a paper in which he discusses the various modes of accomplishing this object, and recommends that the Queen should forbid all trade with Russia, and prohibit the importation of Russian produce, and require certificates of origin for tallow, hemp, &c. John Russell writes word that he cannot attend the meeting, but is ready, though reluctant, to vote for Wilson's proposal. Granville and Cardwell are both dead against it, after a discussion at the Council Office at which the majority were against the proposal.
November 4th.—At The Grove from Wednesday to Saturday; the Walewskis, Lavradios, Granvilles, Azeglio, and Panizzi were there, a pleasant party enough. Walewski told me a curious thing which he said he knew to be true. We were talking of Nesselrode, and I asked if he knew what his present position was with his Emperor. He said he had been out of favour, but latterly had resumed all his influence and was very well at Court; that although in the beginning of the quarrel he had done his best to moderate the Emperor and to preserve peace, it was nevertheless true that he was perhaps the immediate cause of the war, which had turned upon the acceptance or refusal of the Turkish modifications of the Vienna Note; that when they arrived the Emperor was inclined to accept them, and that Nesselrode dissuaded him from doing so, advising him to adhere to the unaltered Note, not to listen to the modifications, and insisting that, if he did so, the allies would compel the Turks to waive their demands and to accept the Note in its original shape. Walewski also said that the Emperor was exceedingly incensed when the fatal circular, which made the Vienna Note an impossibility, was published. He said it was never intended for publication, and he found great fault with the document itself, insisted on knowing by whom it had been composed, and ordered the author to be brought before him. The man (whose name I forget) was not to be found, and events which pressed on drove it out of His Majesty's mind.
In the 'Times' of yesterday appeared a very able letter of Bright's with his view of the war, and the faults committed by our Government in respect to it, which letter as nearly as possible expresses my own opinion on the subject. I have never agreed with those who fancy that by mere bluster we might have averted the war, but I think by more firmness towards not only Russia but towards Turkey, and still more towards the press and the public excitement here, together with a judicious employment of the resources of diplomacy, we might have prevented it. However, we are in for it, and I not only see no chance of getting soon out of it, but I do not feel the same confidence that everybody else does, that we are certain to carry it to a successful end.
SEBASTOPOL BESIEGED.
London, November 13th.—At Worsley all last week; nothing was thought of but the war, its events and vicissitudes. The tardiness of intelligence and the perplexity and agitation caused by vague reports and telegraphic messages drive everybody mad; from excessive confidence, the public, always nose-led by the newspapers, is fallen into a state of alarm and discouragement. There is no end to the mischief which the newspapers and their correspondents have done, are doing, and no doubt will continue to do. There does not seem at this moment more reason to doubt that we shall take Sebastopol than there ever was, but the obstinate defence of the Russians indicates that its capture will not be effected without a tremendous struggle and great sacrifice of life. On the other hand, the Russians, instead of despairing of being able to hold the place, are full of confidence that they will be able to protract their defence, till our losses, and still more the weather, will compel us to raise the siege, and then they expect to compel us to abandon the Crimea altogether, and to make our re-embarkation a dangerous and disastrous operation. It is to be hoped that such a calamitous result is not in store for us, but there is no disguising from ourselves that we have got a much tougher and more difficult job on our hands than we ever contemplated, and that our success is by no means such a certainty as we have all along flattered ourselves that it would be; for supposing we succeed in entering the place by storm, our work will then be not nearly done. Sebastopol is not invested, and when the Russian garrison finds itself no longer able to hold the place, there is nothing to prevent its evacuating it on the other side and effecting a junction with the main Russian army. We shall then have to reduce the forts on the northern side, to put the place in a state of defence, and commence a fresh campaign against Menschikoff in the centre of the Crimea. All this presents an endless succession of difficulties, demanding large supplies and resources of all sorts which it will be no easy matter to afford. We are now talking of sending every soldier we possess to the scene of action, and expending our military resources to the last drop, leaving everything else at home and abroad to take care of itself, a course which nothing but an extreme necessity can justify, while at the same time it cannot be denied that having gone so far we cannot stop halfway, and having committed so large a part of our gallant army in this unequal contest, we are bound to make the greatest exertions and sacrifices to prevent their being overwhelmed by any serious disaster. But this very necessity only affords fresh ground for condemning the rashness with which we plunged into such a war and exposed ourselves to such enormous dangers, and incurred such large sacrifices for so inadequate an object.