Canrobert writes to his Government that he hopes soon to attempt the assault, but the Emperor and M. Vaillant by no means approve of it, and have sent him orders not actually prohibiting it, but enjoining caution in such a manner as will most probably effectually deter him from doing anything. They all think that the capture of the place could only be achieved (if at all) at a great cost of life, and that the captors could not hold it for many hours, as they would be pounded from the Northern forts which entirely command the place.
We discussed Austria and what she will do when the Russian answer comes to the last communication of the Conference at Vienna, and what she can do. Even if she recalls her ambassador from St. Petersburg and declares war, Cowley thinks she will never cross bayonets with the Russians or fire a shot unless attacked; and he believes, on what appear good grounds, that if any fighting takes place between the Austrians and the Russians, the former will get beaten, and that the Russian army is much the best of the two. This is the reverse of the general notion, but it seems that the Austrian officers themselves are of that opinion. It is no wonder, therefore, that they have no mind to go to war and to encounter this danger to accommodate us, whom they still cordially hate on many accounts, but especially for the Haynau affair, which still rankles in their hearts and in which they think their uniform was insulted. ? propos of this, Clarendon told me that the Queen was talking to him very lately about this affair, and told him that she had entreated Palmerston at the time to write some expression of regret to the Austrian Government, but that nothing would induce him to do it, and he never did.
NEGOTIATIONS WITH FRANCE.
I asked Clarendon what was Palmerston's present tone about the war. He said he was very uneasy about the army and its condition, but just as confident as ever as to the final result of the war, and as lofty in his ideas of the terms of peace we should exact from Russia. He is all for restoring the Crimea to Turkey, and, what is more, he has persuaded the Emperor Napoleon to embrace that opinion. As usual, he never sees any difficulty in anything he wishes to do. I told Cowley and Clarendon what Grey said—viz. that he agreed entirely with Bright's letter, and that the war might have been avoided by either of the two courses—to have told the Emperor of Russia in the beginning we would make war on him if he persisted, and compelled to understand that we really meant it, or to have forced the Turks to accept the Vienna Note; and, in either case, war would have been avoided, but that, the Cabinet itself being divided, everything was done in a spirit of compromise, and a middle course adopted which led to all the mischief. Cowley answered the first alternative and Clarendon the second. Cowley said that one of the great difficulties of the British Government was to secure concert with the French, and to explain their own conduct without hurting the susceptibility of their allies or divulging what passed between the two Governments. The French were perpetually blowing hot and cold, with a false air of vigour superior to our's at one moment, and at another wanting to do what our Ministers would have been torn to pieces for consenting to. For instance, in spite of us they would send their fleet to the Dardanelles to support the Turks, and afterwards they proposed to send the two fleets to Constantinople to compel the Sultan to sign the Vienna Note. Cowley told me this war in its present shape and with these vast armaments had gone on insensibly and from small beginnings, nobody could well tell how. In the first instance, the Emperor told Cowley he had no intention of sending any land forces to the East, and when we proposed to him to despatch there a small corps of 5,000 English and 10,000 French he positively declined. Soon after Sir John Burgoyne was sent to examine and report on the state of the country, and he gave an opinion that it would be desirable to send such a force to occupy a fortified position at Gallipoli in case of the Russians making a sudden attack with their fleet on Constantinople, in which case our fleets might be in some danger. Cowley took him to the Emperor, to whom he told his story. The Emperor said he thought his reasons good, and this was a definite and tangible object, and he would send the troops. When Raglan was offered the command of the forces we were to send out, he said he would not go with less than 20,000 men; and when we agreed to send this force, the French said if we sent 20,000 they must send 40,000, and so the expedition began, and it has since swelled to its present magnitude—our's in consequence of the clamour here and pressure from without, and their's to keep pace with our's in relative proportions. With regard to the Vienna Note, Clarendon said Stratford never would have let the Turks sign it, and if they had recalled him the Cabinet here would have been broken up, Palmerston would have gone out, Stratford would have come home frantic and have proclaimed to the whole country that the Turks had been sacrificed and betrayed, and the uproar would have been so great that it would have been impossible to carry out the intention. I think the first answer is more weighty than the last, and that the popular clamour and Palmerston's secession ought to have been encountered at whatever hazard rather than persist in the fatal course which could hardly fail to lead, and did eventually lead, us into this deplorable war.
[CHAPTER VIII.]
Lord John's Views on the Ministry—Gloomy Prospects—Attacks on Lord Raglan—Russian and Prussian Diplomacy—Lord Palmerston more in favour—French View of the British Army—Russian Negotiations—Lord John Russell in Paris—Conference at Vienna—Lord Raglan unmoved—Terms proposed to Russia—Failure of the Duke of Newcastle—Hesitation of Austria and France—Deplorable State of the Armies—Chances of Peace—Meeting of Parliament—Further Negotiations—Lord John Russell resigns—Ministers stay in—The Debate on Roebuck's Motion—Resignation of Lord Aberdeen—Lord John Russell's real Motives—Lord Derby sent for—and fails—Wise Decision of the Queen—Ministerial Negotiations—Lord Palmerston sent for—The Peelites refuse to join—Lord Palmerston forms a Government—Lord Palmerston's Prospects—Lord John Russell sent to Vienna—Lord Palmerston in the House of Commons—General Alarm—Difficulties of Lord Palmerston—The Peelites secede—Lord John accepts the Colonial Office—Sir George Lewis Chancellor of the Exchequer—Death of the Emperor Nicholas of Russia—Lord Palmerston supposed to be a weak Debater—Weakness of the Government—Fresh Arrangements—The Budget—The Press.
LORD JOHN RUSSELL'S POSITION.
January 2nd, 1855.—I received yesterday a letter from the Duke of Bedford relating to the views and position of Lord John Russell. He had talked over his position with the Duke, disclaimed any wish to be again Prime Minister, but desired Lord Lansdowne should be in the post; that he liked personally both Aberdeen and Newcastle but thought them unfit for the emergency. He had proposed that Palmerston should be War Minister but was overruled, and now (the Duke asks) what is he to do if a vote of censure on the management of the war is proposed in the House of Commons, thinking as he does that it has been mismanaged? He would willingly break up this Government, which he really thinks a very bad one (what he wrote to Clarendon being his deliberate opinion), if he could see a chance of a better being substituted, and if he thought Derby could carry on the war more efficiently, which he does not. This letter is a complete reply to the objection Clarendon urged against Palmerston's being War Minister, for if Lord John himself wished it, nobody else could well object. He ought to have insisted on it, and, if he had, it must have been done.