Nothing can wear a gloomier aspect than affairs do at home and abroad—the Government weak, unpopular, dispirited, and divided, the army in the Crimea in a deplorable state, and the prospects of the war far from brilliant, no confidence in the commanding officers there, and no likelihood of finding more competent ones, everybody agreeing that till we have 150,000 men in the Crimea we cannot count on taking Sebastopol, and the difficulty of ever assembling such a force appearing very great. So far as I can collect, the violent articles which the 'Times' emits day after day have excited general resentment and disgust. They overdo everything and, while they are eternally changing their course, the one they follow for the moment they follow with an outrageous violence which shocks everybody. But as those who complain most of the 'Times' still go on reading it, the paper only gets more rampant and insolent, for as long as its circulation is undiminished it does not care what anybody thinks or says of it.
January 4th.—I wrote the Duke an answer with my opinion on Lord John's position and obligations, which has elicited another from him this morning. He says that it was a few weeks ago that John made a formal proposal to Aberdeen that Palmerston should replace Newcastle at the War Department. Aberdeen desired time to consider, and then refused. Subsequently the matter was renewed, when Palmerston himself objected, and then it necessarily ended. The Duke thinks that Lord John will not now stir it again, and will make up his mind to go on, and to defend his Government in the House of Commons. He consulted Sir George Grey, Lord Lansdowne, and Panmure, and they all advised him not to resign. It is strange that while this is imparted to me 'very confidentially,' and I had heard nothing of it before, it is currently reported, and stated positively in the 'Morning Herald,' that Lord John and others, mentioned by name, have insisted on Newcastle's being turned out. That some part of what has occurred has got out is clear, and I incline to think that some of his satellites have set to work, and that, by way of assisting Lord John's object, they have given notice of what was going on to some of the Derbyites. There is a mysterious allusion to some impending event in the 'Press' on Saturday last, which looks very like this.
CENSURES OF LORD RAGLAN.
The 'Times' goes on against Raglan with greater vehemence every day, and will not be restrained by any remonstrances. Evans has put himself in communication with Delane (though certainly having no hand in these attacks) and has sent him an account of his having addressed a letter to Canrobert many days before the battle of Inkerman for the purpose of getting him to assist in taking precautionary measures to resist the attack he was persuaded the Russians would make, and Canrobert's answer, in which he says that his means are curtailed by the necessity of providing for the defence of Balaklava, and of extending his line and making dispositions 'dans l'int?r?t de la situation commune,' but that he has ordered Bosquet to move nearer to Evans' division, and to be in readiness if anything should happen. There was a passage omitted in the printed letter of Evans to Raglan in which he alludes to the neglect of the precautionary measures he had recommended.
Gortschakoff has declared the Emperor of Russia will accept the first, second, and fourth articles of the four points, and will consider of the third. This may mean that he really wishes to make peace, or only be done for the sake of Austria, and to give her a pretext for not declaring against him. Clarendon is satisfied with Usedom, but not at all with his proposals. He says the King of Prussia has sent him to try and make a treaty with France and England entirely out of jealousy and mortification at Austria having made one, but he does not propose one similar to the Austrian Treaty, only a defensive one. Clarendon says the King in his heart hates Russia and winces under the influence he submits to, that he is indignant at the insults which have been heaped on him by his Imperial brother-in-law, and the contumely with which he has been treated, but, being physically and politically a coward, he has not energy to shake off the yoke he has suffered to be imposed on him.
Aldenham, January 6th.—I came here to-day. I saw Cowley yesterday, who has been to Windsor, and tells me that he finds by conversations he has had with Stockmar that the Queen is much softened towards Palmerston and no longer regards him with the extreme aversion she did. On the other hand, she is very angry with John Russell, and this is, of course, from knowing what he has been doing, and resentment at his embarrassing and probably breaking up the Government. This relaxation in her feelings towards Palmerston is very important at this moment, and presents the chance of an alternative which, if this Government falls, may save her from Derby and his crew, whom she cordially detests. I hear Newcastle is very low, as well he may be, for no man was ever placed in so painful a position, and it is one from which it is impossible for him to extricate himself. When the Government goes to pieces, as I am persuaded it will, the Queen is very likely to send for Palmerston, and he and Ellenborough, as War Minister, might make a Government that would probably stand during the war, and which in present circumstances the House of Commons and the country could not but support. My notion is that Lord John would not take any office, but would support Palmerston, and advise all his friends and followers to do so. I know no reason why Ellenborough should not act with anybody, and many of the present Government might stay in, and certain changes be made which would let in more Whigs, and so conciliate that party, while the Conservatives would abstain from supporting any Government which did not contain Aberdeen and Newcastle. Gladstone might be a difficulty; Clarendon would be none, for he and Palmerston have pulled very well together, and I have no doubt Palmerston would be very happy to keep him. This opens a new prospect, and one very preferable to having Derby and his friends in office again.
CANROBERT'S OPINION OF BRITISH ARMY.
I asked Cowley about Canrobert's confidential letters to his Government on the state of our army of which I had heard. He said it was very true, and he had seen several of these letters, in which Canrobert said that nothing could exceed his admiration of the British soldiers, but he was convinced the army would disappear altogether, for their organisation and management were deplorable; and he entreated his Government, if they possibly could, to interpose in the interest of the common cause to procure some amelioration of the organisation, without which nothing could save the army from destruction. The Emperor, Cowley said, never mentioned our troops or commanders to him except in terms of respect and with expressions of his admiration, but he knew that to others he spoke in a very different tone, and said that our army was commanded by an old woman.
January 12th.—I returned to town last night. The Emperor of Russia's acceptance of the four points, as interpreted by us, of course excites hopes of peace, but I think few people are sanguine as to the result. It is suspected to be only a dodge to paralyse the action of Austria, but unless there was some secret concert with Austria, which is not likely, I cannot see what Russia is to gain by accepting conditions which she does not really mean to abide by. Such conduct could only deceive the Allies for a short time, and, as there is no question of any suspension of military operations, nothing would be gained in that respect, while as soon as some decisive test of the Emperor's sincerity was applied, his real meaning must be made manifest, and then not only would the acharnement of the Western Powers be increased, but it would be quite impossible for Austria not to join the Coalition, and to act verily and indeed against Russia. These reasons would induce me to put faith in the Russian announcement; on the other hand, it is barely credible that the Emperor should consent to the sacrifice of Sebastopol in the present state of the campaign, and with the almost certainty that we cannot take it for many months to come, if at all.