January 20th.—It is only by degrees one can unravel the truth in political affairs. John Russell told me last night that Austria has never given in her adhesion to our condition of making the destruction of Sebastopol a sine qu? non of peace. She joins us in insisting on the 'faire cesser la pr?potence,' but the means of accomplishing this remain to be discussed. This is very different from what I had imagined, and makes it anything but certain that she will join her forces to our's, if the negotiations fail in consequence of our demands. We are now endeavouring to bring the Court of Vienna into an agreement with us as to the conditions to be required, and it is no easy matter to get the Cabinet to agree upon the wording of the communications we make to her. This arises from the necessity of looking to the effect of what will appear in the Blue Books. Blue Books, Parliamentary discussions, and the Press tie up the hands of a Government, fetter its discretion and deliberate policy, and render diplomatic transactions (especially with Governments whose hands are more free) excessively difficult. Granville told me yesterday morning that the course of Russia had been more straightforward than that of England and France, and this morning he reminded me of having said so, and added that we were in a great diplomatic mess, France always finessing and playing a game of her own; and I infer from what he said that, having got all she can out of us, she is now coquetting with Austria, and disposed to defer to her wishes and objects, and to be less exigeante towards Russia. This is only of a piece with what Clarendon has often said to me about France and her way of dealing with us; however, if France will only insist on making peace on plausible terms, and with the semblance of its being an honourable and consistent peace, we cannot do otherwise than acquiesce in her determination, and if we only follow the lead she takes the public here must needs be satisfied. This is Granville's own idea, as it is mine, and God grant that affairs may take this turn, and so we may get out of the tremendous scrape we are in, the escape from which will be cheaply purchased by the fall of the Government—a consequence that is almost certain if it does not happen before anything can be done.
Day after day the accounts from the Crimea represent a more deplorable state of things, entirely confirmative of Canrobert's statements to his own Government, and it is difficult to read them and not apprehend some fatal catastrophe. We know nothing of the state of the Russians either within or without Sebastopol, and this ignorance is not one of the least remarkable circumstances in this war, but we must conclude either that their condition is as bad as our's, and that they are unable to attack us, or that their policy is to let the winter do its work, and that they do not think it necessary for them to fight sanguinary battles with very doubtful results when disease is ravaging the allied army and producing effects as advantageous for them as the most complete victories could do, as surely, only more gradually.
ABORTIVE NEGOTIATIONS.
January 22nd.—Every day one looks with anxiety to see and to hear whether the chances of peace look well or ill, and at present they look very ill. Clarendon seems to set his face against it—that is, he considers it hopeless; and it is not promising that the negotiations should be under the management of one who has no hopes of bringing them to a successful issue, and whose despair of it evidently arises from his determination to exact conditions that there is no chance of obtaining. I hear, too, this morning, that the instructions to Bourqueney are to be as exigeant as possible—not very wise pretensions anyhow, but they rather indicate the tone adopted by England than the real intentions of France, for it is one thing to make great demands and another to persist in them. It is, however, idle to speculate on the progress of a negotiation which must be so largely influenced by the operations and events of the war. Parliament meets tomorrow, and I think a very short time will elapse before the fate of the Government is decided by some vote about the conduct of the war. I think the Government themselves desire it, and, conscious of the state of public opinion and of the deplorable state of affairs, and most of them thinking there has been great and fatal mismanagement, they wish the question to be decided, would not be sorry to be driven out by an adverse vote, and consider that it would be a better and more respectable way of ending than by those internal dissensions, which, like a cancer, are continually undermining them. John Russell sees nothing but difficulties in the formation of another Government of a Whig complexion including a large portion of the present Ministers, and says that he does not think Lord Lansdowne would, or that he or Palmerston could accomplish it. He means now to stand by his colleagues, to accept his share of responsibility, and defend what has been done.
January 23rd.—Parliament meets to-day, and probably no time will be lost in attacking the Government, but it is impossible yet to know whether they will be harassed by a continual succession of skirmishes and bitter comments on details, or whether some grand and decisive assault will be made. The general impression is that the War Department cannot remain in Newcastle's hands, and if he cannot be got rid of without the whole Ministry going to pieces it must so end. I think this is pretty much the opinion of the Ministers themselves; and though I believe they all, or most of them, personally like him, they seem, so far as I can see, to be agreed that he is unequal to his post.
With regard to peace, the prospect looks anything but bright. The negotiations will not begin till we receive positive information as to the meaning of the Emperor of Russia in accepting the four points. Some weeks ago Clarendon wrote a despatch to Westmorland, in which he stated explicitly the meaning we attached to the four points, but this has never been put officially before the Emperor, that we know of. Buol acquiesced, as I understood, in our explanation, but John Russell distinctly told me that Austria had never signified her concurrence in making the demolition of Sebastopol a sine qu? non condition. Now, however, some fresh communication has been made by Austria to Russia, and we will not begin the negotiation until Austria shall have signified to us that the Emperor's acceptance is such as will warrant us in negotiating. I am not sufficiently acquainted with all the details to form a conclusive opinion, but, as far as I can see, we have been hanging off from being perfectly explicit, and have never yet come to a complete understanding with Austria, much less with Russia, and I am afraid of our Ministers committing themselves in Parliament by some declarations and professions of intentions which may make peace impossible and break up the negotiations at once, for as to Russia consenting to dismantle Sebastopol, I look upon it as impossible, and absurd to expect it. I earnestly hope that Bourqueney may be instructed to come to an understanding with Austria, and that, if we insist on terms impossible to obtain, our two Allies may compel us to give way, or leave us to fight the battle alone. The only thing quite certain is that we are in a state of the utmost doubt, danger, and perplexity at home and abroad, all of which is owing to our own egregious folly and unskilfulness, and the universal madness which has pervaded the nation.
LORD JOHN RUSSELL RESIGNS OFFICE.
January 24th.—The Government is at an end, or at least it probably will be before the end of the day. The Duke of Bedford has just been to me to tell me that last night, after returning from the House of Commons, Lord John wrote a letter to Aberdeen to resign his office, and he will not attend the Cabinet to-day. Nobody knows it but Aberdeen himself, and I am not permitted to tell Granville even, but it will be announced to the Cabinet this morning. The immediate cause of Lord John's resignation is Roebuck's motion, of which he gave notice last night, for a Committee to inquire into the conduct of the war; it is intended as a hostile motion, and would have been turned into a vote of censure and want of confidence. Besides this, it seems Hayter had told Lord John that the aspect of the House was bad, and members of the Government party disinclined to attend. Accordingly, he said he could not and would not face the motion; Graham and Sidney Herbert might defend the conduct of the war, but he could not. Heaven only knows what will occur. Lord John took no time to consider, but sent his resignation at once, the moment he returned from the House. I told the Duke that I thought he had made himself obnoxious to very just reproach, running away from such a motion, and explaining (as he must do) that he could not defend the conduct of the war. He will naturally be asked how long he has been dissatisfied with its management, and why he did not retire long ago. The Duke said he was aware of this, but he endeavoured to make out that the case bore some analogy to that of Lord Althorp in 1834, when he resigned in consequence of a motion of O'Connell's. But this was altogether different. Nothing can, in my opinion, justify Lord John, and his conduct will, if I am not mistaken, be generally condemned, and deprive him of the little consideration and influence he had left. It has been vacillating, ungenerous, and cowardly, for after all, in spite of errors and mistakes, the conduct of the war admits of a defence, at least as to many parts of it, and it would have been far better to stand up manfully and abide the result of the battle in Parliament, than to shirk the fight and leave his colleagues to deal with the difficulty as best they may, trying to escape from the consequences of a responsibility which nothing he can say or do can enable him to shake off.
MR. ROEBUCK'S COMMITTEE OF ENQUIRY.