London, November 24th.—After his failure with Stanley, Palmerston applied to Sidney Herbert, who went to Broadlands, but, finding that he and Palmerston could not agree upon the subject of war and peace (the details of their disagreement I do not know), he declined the offer of the Colonial Office. Palmerston then sent for Labouchere, who accepted.[1] He called on me the day after and told me he had been to Broadlands, that Palmerston had told him everything about the state of affairs and his own views and opinions, and, as he could find nothing therein to object to, he had accepted the office. As Labouchere is certainly moderate, this would indicate more moderation on the part of Palmerston than Sidney Herbert found in him, unless Labouchere and Sidney Herbert take totally dissimilar views of affairs.
After this, a few days ago, I had a long conversation with George Lewis, who told me that France and Austria were endeavouring to bring about peace, and that communications were going on between France and our Government on the subject, and he said, moreover, that Palmerston was by no means so stiff and so bent on continuing the war as was generally supposed. This intelligence appeared to me to explain what I could not understand in his communications with Sidney Herbert and Labouchere; for, if the Emperor has really intimated to our Government his determination to try and make peace, Palmerston must needs come down from his very high horse and evince a disposition to go along with our Imperial ally, who has got the whole game in his own hands, and whom we must perforce follow when he is determined to take his own course. Then our warlike propensities may be probably restrained by the alarming prospect of financial difficulties which Lewis sees looming in the distance. He said to me, 'I am sure I do not know how I shall provide ways and means next year, for the enormously high prices will be a great blow to consumption, and the money market is in a very ticklish state.' I said, 'You will have to trust to a great loan, and ten per cent. income tax;' to which he assented. They have now patched up the Government, by getting Baines to take the Duchy of Lancaster with a seat in the Cabinet—a very respectable man, who cannot speak, and who will be of no use to them. Neither he nor Labouchere will add much to their strength, but they are both very unexceptionable appointments. I think that, in spite of the undiminished violence of the press, the prevailing opinion is that there is the beginning of a change in the public mind, and an incipient desire for peace; and I agree with Disraeli, who thinks that, when once the current has fairly turned, it will run with great rapidity the other way.
[1] [The Right Hon. Henry Labouchere, born in 1798, a highly respected member of the Whig party, who filled many offices in Liberal Governments. He was created Baron Taunton on his retirement from office in 1859, and died in July 1869.]
PROPOSALS FOR PEACE.
November 27th.—At length there really does appear to be a prospect of putting an end to this odious war, and my conjectures of a few days ago are assuming the shape of realities. Yesterday morning I met George Lewis in the Park and turned back and walked with him to the door of his office, when he told me the exact state of affairs. I had received a letter from the Duke of Bedford in the morning, who said that Charles Wood, who was at Woburn, had told him the statement in the 'Press' a week ago was so substantially accurate that they must, he thought, have received their information from some French official source. This was in itself confirmatory of all I had already inferred and believed. Lewis's story was this: The Austrians have framed a proposal for peace which they offer to send to Russia, and, if she refuses it, Austria engages to join the Allies and to declare war. The Emperor Napoleon agrees with Austria, and is resolved not to go on with the war if peace can be arranged on the Austrian terms. This resolution he has communicated to us, and invited us to accede thereto; Walewski's letters are not merely pressing, but even peremptory. It is in fact a second edition of the Vienna Conference and proposals, with this difference, that, while on the last occasion the Emperor knocked under to us and reluctantly agreed to go on with the war, he is now determined to go on with it no longer, and requires that we should defer to his wishes. Our Government are aware that they have no alternative, and that nothing is left for them but to acquiesce with a good grace and make the best case they can for themselves here, the case being that the Emperor is determined to make peace, and that we cannot carry on the war alone. This was the amount of Lewis' information, to which he added the expression of his disgust at the pitiful figure we cut in the affair, being obliged to obey the commands of Louis Napoleon, and, after our insolence, swagger, and bravado, to submit to terms of peace which we have already scornfully rejected; all which humiliation, he justly said, was the consequence of our plunging into war without any reason and in defiance of all prudence and sound policy. Afterwards I saw Charles Villiers and had a talk with him. He told me Clarendon had been sent for on Sunday to Windsor in a great hurry to meet Palmerston there. The Queen had received a letter from the Emperor, brought by the Duke of Cambridge, which no doubt contained in a private and friendly shape to her the communications which Walewski had already made officially to the Government and she wanted to know what answer she should send to it. Charles Villiers told me that Palmerston had already thrown out a feeler to the Cabinet to ascertain if they would be willing to carry on the war without France, but this was unanimously declined. I can hardly imagine that even Palmerston really contemplated such a desperate course.
November 29th.—I met Sidney Herbert last night. He seems to know what is going on and thinks we shall have peace; he only doubts whether the terms will be such as Russia will accept, for he is not convinced, as I am, that Austria has already settled that with Russia. He told me that, when Palmerston offered him office, he had not received the French communication, and was ignorant that it was coming.
December 4th.—At The Grange the last four days, where I found everybody in total ignorance of what is passing about peace, except Sidney Herbert, who told me that the plan is neutralisation. On coming back yesterday I met Lord Malmesbury just come from Paris; he is supposed to be the person who supplied all its information to the 'Press' paper, and I believe it was he. He confirmed the Emperor's desire for peace, but thought it very doubtful whether Russia would accept the terms of the Allies. He told me likewise that P?lissier has sent word he is in a fix, as he cannot advance or expel the Russians from their positions; and James Macdonald told me the Duke of Cambridge is going again to Paris to represent us at a grand council of war to be held there, to decide on future operations. If it were not that the Allies seem infallible and invincible, and the Russians unable to accomplish anything, offensive or defensive, I should augur very ill from this council of war, for nothing can be worse than to have a set of men at Paris forming plans to be executed by another set in the Crimea who have had no share in the deliberations.
This morning the Duke of Bedford writes me word that Westmorland tells him he has heard from Clarendon the state of affairs, and the answer we have sent to France, and he augurs ill of peace, as he thinks there can be no agreement with Russia on such terms; and the 'Morning Post,' which has long been quite silent about war or peace, has this morning an article which is evidently a regular Palmerstonian manifesto, decidedly adverse to any hope of peace, for it is certain that Russia will continue the war, co?te que co?te, rather than submit to such conditions as the 'Morning Post' says we are to impose on her. I am persuaded Palmerston and Clarendon will do all they can to prevent peace being made on any moderate terms, and the only hope is that the Emperor Napoleon may take the matter into his own hands and employ a douce violence to compel us to give way.
THE PROPOSALS MODIFIED.
December 5th.—I met Charles Villiers last night, who told me a good deal of what is going on, and cleared up some matters. The Austrian proposal transmitted here by the Emperor Napoleon was considered by the Cabinet and sent back with amendments—that is, it was made more stringent. The Emperor consented to send it so amended to Vienna, and it remains to be seen what course Austria will take—whether she will send it in its present shape to Russia or adhere to her own edition, and whether, if she does send it, she will (supposing it to be rejected) join the Allies and declare war. The latter, I think, she will not do, nor be bound to do. Next is the question what the Emperor Napoleon will do if Austria declines to adopt the amended version, or if Russia should reply she would take the original proposal, but not our amendments. The Emperor is certainly very anxious to make peace, and when he is bent upon a thing he generally does it, and my own opinion and hope is that he will refuse to give way to us now as he did last May. It is universally admitted that every man in France desires peace ardently. There is, Charles Villiers tells me, great uneasiness amongst Palmerston's adherents, and some idea that, if peace cannot be had on the terms he has insisted on, he will be no party to making it, and if the majority of the Cabinet are for taking the original terms proposed, supposing the Emperor Napoleon again to press their acceptance, that he will resign, throw himself on the popular enthusiasm for the war, and leave his colleagues to make an unpopular peace. If Palmerston was forty instead of seventy he would probably do this; but he has not time to wait for fresh combinations and to speculate on distant chances, so he will probably consent to make peace if he is obliged by France to do so, and trust to fortune to enable him to reconcile Parliament and the country to it. This is rendered more likely by Disraeli having made a communication to the Government that he and Stanley will be ready to support any peace they may now make.