December 6th.—I saw George Lewis yesterday, who told me the state of affairs so far as he recollects it; but it is evident that he takes but a secondary interest in the details of diplomacy, however anxious he may be about the results, and what passed shows the extreme difficulty of keeping clear of mistakes, even when one's information is derived from the best sources. He said he did not think Russia would accept the offered terms, and Clarendon thought not also. The terms which it will be most difficult for her to swallow are the neutralisation of the Black Sea, which as worked out is evidently worse than limitation, for she is to have no fortress and no arsenal there, so that she will, in fact, be quite defenceless, while the other Powers can at any time collect fleets in the Bosphorus and attack her coasts when they please. Then she is to cede half Bessarabia to the Turks, including the fortress of Ismail, the famous conquest of Souvaroff when he wrote to the Empress Catherine, 'L'orgueilleuse Ismailoff est ? vos pieds;' and they are not to repair Bomarsund, or erect any fortress on the Aland Isles. The alterations we made in the scheme sent to us were not important, and what surprised me much was, the terms, instead of being tendered by Austria, were concocted at Paris by Walewski and the Emperor—at least so Walewski asserts, but there must I think be some incorrectness in this, for it is impossible to doubt that the Emperor and Austria really concerted them between themselves, though Walewski may have had a hand in the matter in some way. However, the terms are gone or going directly to St. Petersburg. I earnestly hope they may be accepted, be they what they may. Russia is to be asked whether she will take them Yes or No, and, upon the preliminaries being signed, hostilities will cease. I asked if Russia might not accept as a basis, and negotiate as to modification and details, but Lewis professed not to understand how this is, or whether her acceptance generally would or not bind her to all the conditions precisely as they are set forth. He knows nothing in fact of diplomacy and its niceties and operations.
M. DE CAVOUR AT WINDSOR.
Lord John Russell met Clarendon at Windsor Castle,[1] but refused to hear what Clarendon offered to tell him of the state of the negotiation; he thought he should compromise his own independent action if he did. He says, 'Were peace to be made on the four points newly explained and enlarged, I would do nothing but applaud and support.' The only men Lord John communicated with at Windsor were Cavour and Azeglio. He writes: 'I asked Cavour what was the language of the Emperor of the French; he said it was to this effect: France had made great efforts and sacrifices, she would not continue them for the sake of conquering the Crimea; the alternative was such a peace as can now be had by means of Austria, or an extension of the war for Poland,' etc. The Sardinians, Ministers and King, are openly and warmly for the latter course. I suspect Palmerston would wish the war to glide imperceptibly into a war of nationalities, as it is called, but would not like to profess it openly now. I am convinced such a war might suit Napoleon and the King of Sardinia, but would be very dangerous for us in many ways. Cavour says if peace is made without anything being done for Italy, there will be a revolution there. Clarendon is incredulous.
[1] [The King of Sardinia, Victor Emmanuel, arrived in England on the 30th November, accompanied by his Minister, M. de Cavour. Lord Clarendon and Lord John Russell were invited to Windsor to meet the King.]
THE KING OF SARDINIA.
London, December 11th.—I met Clarendon at the Travellers' on Friday evening, and had a talk with him. He did not seem inclined to enter much into the question of peace and war, but he told me that Buol declared most solemnly that he had had no communication with Russia about the terms, and that he had only slight hopes that peace might be made. Of the terms themselves Clarendon did not say a word. He talked a great deal about the King of Sardinia, and gave me an account of his conversations both with the King and Cavour. He thinks well of the King, and that he is intelligent, and he has a very high opinion indeed of Cavour, and was especially struck with his knowledge of England, and our Constitution and constitutional history. I was much amused, after all the praises that have been lavished on Sardinia for the noble part she has played and for taking up arms to vindicate a great principle in so unselfish a manner, that she has after all a keen view to her own interest, and wants some solid pudding as well as so much empty praise. The King asked Clarendon what the Allies meant to do for him, and whether he might not expect some territorial advantage in return for his services. Clarendon told him this was out of the question, and that, in the state of their relations with Austria, they could hold out no such expectation; and he put it to the King, supposing negotiations for peace were to take place, and he wished his pretensions to be put forward by us, what he would himself suggest that a British Minister could say for him; and the King had the candour to say he did not know what answer to give. Cavour urged the same thing, and said the war had already cost them forty millions of francs, instead of twenty-five which they had borrowed for it and was the original estimate, and they could only go on with it by another loan and fresh taxes, and he did not know how he should propose these to the Chambers without having something advantageous to offer to his own country, some Italian acquisition. They would ask for what object of their's the war was carried on, and what they had to gain for all their sacrifices and exertions. Clarendon said they must be satisfied with the glory they had acquired and the high honour their conduct had conferred on them; but Cavour, while he said he did not repent the part they had taken, thought his countrymen would be very little satisfied to have spent so much money and to continue to spend more without gaining some Italian object. They complained that Austria had, without any right, for a long time occupied a part of the Papal territory, and suggested she should be compelled to retire from it; but Clarendon reminded him that France had done the same, and that this was a very ticklish question to stir.
The King and his people are far better satisfied with their reception here than in France, where, under much external civility, there was very little cordiality, the Emperor's intimate relations with Austria rendering him little inclined towards the Piedmontese. Here the Queen was wonderfully cordial and attentive; she got up at four in the morning to see him depart. His Majesty appears to be frightful in person, but a great, strong, burly, athletic man, brusque in his manners, unrefined in his conversation, very loose in his conduct, and very eccentric in his habits. When he was at Paris his talk in society amused or terrified everybody, but here he seems to have been more guarded. It was amusing to see all the religious societies hastening with their addresses to him, totally forgetting that he is the most debauched and dissolute fellow in the world; but the fact of his being excommunicated by the Pope and his waging war with the ecclesiastical power in his own country covers every sin against morality, and he is a great hero with the Low Church people and Exeter Hall. My brother-in-law said that he looked at Windsor more like a chief of the Heruli or Longobardi than a modern Italian prince, and the Duchess of Sutherland declared that, of all the Knights of the Garter she had seen, he was the only one who seemed as if he would have the best of it with the Dragon.
My hopes of peace wax fainter. Everybody seems to think there is no chance of Russia accepting our terms, or of her proposing any that the Allies would accept. Lewis told me yesterday evening that he expected nothing, and that Russia had now made known (but in what way he did not say) that she was disposed to treat. Meanwhile Palmerston continues to put articles in the 'Morning Post' full of arrogance and jactance, and calculated to raise obstacles to peace. I told Lewis so, and he said it was very foolish, and that he held very different language in the Cabinet, but this is only like what he did in '41, when he used to agree to certain things with his colleagues and then put violent articles in the 'Morning Chronicle' totally at variance with the views and resolutions of the Cabinet. Labouchere told me that he thought the condition of the cession of Ismail ought never to have entered into the terms proposed to Russia.
December 14th.—My hopes of peace, never very sanguine, are now completely dashed, for Lewis told me last night that he thought the terms were at last pretty well agreed upon between England, France, and Austria. I was greatly surprised, for I thought they had been agreed upon long ago and must be by this time on their way to St. Petersburg. I said so; and he replied, 'Oh no, they are only just on the point of being settled.' It was quite extraordinary, he said, how eager Palmerston was for pursuing the war. I gathered from him that our Government has been vehemently urging that of France, through Cowley, to be firm in pressing the most stringent terms on Russia, and particularly not to consent to any negotiation, and to compel her to accept or refuse. I said this was not reasonable, and that we had no right to propose the terms as an ultimatum. That, he replied, was exactly what we were doing, that Cowley was very urgent with the Emperor, who appeared to be intimidated by him, and that he was evidently very much in awe of England and afraid of having any difference with us. I said I could not believe that the Emperor would not leave himself a loophole, and if, as was most probable, Russia declined the terms, but offered to negotiate, that he would agree to that course, which, however, Lewis clearly thought he would not do against our inclination. I was greatly surprised to hear this, because I had a strong impression that the Emperor, when he really desired anything very much (as I believe that he did this peace), would obstinately persevere in it; and it seems so obviously his interest to gratify his own people rather than to be led by this country, that I was persuaded he never would consent to this proposal being un dernier mot, and thus to ensure the failure of the attempt. Palmerston, who is the most obstinate man alive in pressing any object he has once set his mind upon, was sure to press the French Government with the utmost vehemence and pertinacity as soon as he found there was a chance of making them yield to his will.