The Opposition now found all their hopes on the dissensions which they expect to arise in the Tory Government and camp, which is a very uncertain prospect, and as to which they are very likely to be disappointed. The day I went to Osborne I had some conversation with Disraeli, who gave me to understand that he was well aware the Opposition relied on this contingency, but that it was not likely to happen. He was aware of Lord Stanley's liaison with Lord John, and it was evident that the former had made no secret of it, and had told Disraeli that there was (at present) nothing political in it. Lord John had not said a word about his Reform Bill to Stanley, and Disraeli knew that he had not. All this looks like union and confidence between them.
THE QUEEN AND THE MINISTRY.
As far as outward appearances go, the Queen is on very good terms with them, for she gave audiences to several of them, and long ones. Her conduct at the time of the breakup was certainly curious and justifies them in saying that it was by her express desire that Derby undertook the formation of the Government. If Palmerston and his Cabinet were actuated by the motives and expectations which I ascribe to them, Her Majesty certainly did not play into their hands in that game. When Derby set before her all the difficulties of his situation, and entreated her again to reflect upon it, a word from her would have induced him (without having anything to complain of) to throw it back into Palmerston's hands. But the word she did speak was decisive as to his going on, and there is no reason to believe that she was playing a deep game and calculating on his failure. Nor do I believe that she would herself have liked to see Palmerston made all powerful. She can hardly have forgotten how inclined he has always been to abuse his power, and how much she has suffered from his exercise of it, even when he was to a certain degree under control, and although she seemed to be quite reconciled to him, and to be anxious for the stability of his Government, it is difficult to know what her real feelings (or rather those of the Prince) were, and it is more than probable that her anxiety for the success of Palmerston's Government was more on account of the members of it whom she personally likes, and whom she was very reluctant to lose, than out of partiality for the Premier himself. To Clarendon she is really attached, and Granville she likes very much; most of the rest she regarded with indifference.
London, November 4th.—Two months have elapsed during which I have felt no inclination to note down anything in this book, but now that the Newmarket meetings are at an end, and I must needs think of other things, I shall jot down the very few things that have come across me in the interval. When I was at Hillingdon a few weeks ago, I was surprised to hear from Charles Mills a glowing panegyric on Lord Stanley, who has gained golden opinions and great popularity at the India House.[1] I was prepared to hear of his ability, his indefatigable industry, and his businesslike qualities; but I was surprised to hear so much of his courtesy, affability, patience, and candour, that he is neither dictatorial nor conceited, always ready to listen to other people's opinions and advice, and never fancying that he knows better than anybody else. I afterwards told Jonathan Peel what I had heard, and he confirmed the truth of this report, and said he was the same in the Cabinet; but he made me comprehend his popularity with the Council by telling me that he espoused all their views and interests, and co-operated with them in endeavouring to retain certain powers which belonged to the extinct Court of Directors, but which ought, as a consequence of the change, to pass into other hands, particularly military appointments and matters of military control. This received confirmation not long ago from the Duke of Cambridge, whom I met at Cheveley, and who gave me an account of some matter in which he had received and executed certain orders from the Secretary of War, and soon after received a very sharp letter from Stanley calling him to account for having interfered in what, he said, belonged to the Indian Secretary. The Duke referred him to the War Office, so that there seems already a conflict of jurisdiction between the two offices. From all this it is apparent that we shall have fresh Indian discussions when Parliament meets, and there will be a necessity for fresh arrangements for the transaction of business. This may seem to be a very trifling matter, and not worth noticing, but Lord Stanley is so completely the man of the present day, and in all human probability is destined to play so important and conspicuous a part in political life, that the time may come when any details, however minute, of his early career will be deemed worthy of recollection.
[1] [Lord Stanley, the present Earl of Derby, had succeeded to the Presidency of the Board of Control upon the resignation of Lord Ellenborough, and was the first Secretary of State for India upon the abolition of the former office.]
I hear the Queen has written a letter to the Prince of Wales announcing to him his emancipation from parental authority and control, and that it is one of the most admirable letters that ever were penned. She tells him that he may have thought the rule they adopted for his education a severe one, but that his welfare was their only object, and well knowing to what seductions of flattery he would eventually be exposed, they wished to prepare and strengthen his mind against them, that he was now to consider himself his own master, and that they should never intrude any advice upon him, although always ready to give it him whenever he thought fit to seek it. It was a very long letter, all in that tone, and it seems to have made a profound impression on the Prince, and to have touched his feelings to the quick. He brought it to Gerald Wellesley in floods of tears, and the effect it produced is a proof of the wisdom which dictated its composition.
LORD DERBY'S REFORM BILL.
November 17th.—The principal topics of interest for the last fortnight have been Bright's speeches, the visit of Palmerston and Clarendon to Compi�gne, the Portuguese and French quarrel, and the pamphlet and approaching trial of Montalembert, on all of which there is plenty to say. Bright's speeches have evidently been a failure, and if they produce any effect, it will probably be one rather useful to the Government; but the very failure only proves more strongly the bad policy of Derby in bringing forward a Reform measure, and how much more safe he would have been if he had let it alone. There is a considerable though not universal impression that by some means and through the operation of the chapter of accidents this Reform Bill will prove fatal to him. Mr. Elwin, the editor of the 'Quarterly Review,' told the Duke of Bedford he thought so, and that he had been told by a Cabinet Minister that there had been such serious differences of opinion amongst them on this subject that if the session had been prolonged the Government would probably have gone to pieces at that time, and Lord John told the Duke that Walpole had intimated to him something of the same kind. Lord John is expecting, and Palmerston is hoping, that the Government will fall, and the latter is still confident that his day will come again, a confidence which no one else seems to partake of. Clarendon, who is the staunchest of Palmerston's allies and colleagues, has been endeavouring to dissipate this illusion and to bring him to take a more accurate view of his own position, but without success. 'He cannot see why John Russell should not again take office under him,' and it is in vain that Clarendon assures him that nothing on earth will induce Lord John to do so. Lord John seems disposed to bide his time, and evidently cherishes a hope and expectation that the Whig party will return to their allegiance to him and enable him to form another Government. He seems to have a liking for Bright, though he does not agree with all his views of Reform. At this moment my own belief is that the present Government have the best chance in this race for power from the mere fact of their being in possession, and from the hopeless disunion and confusion in which the Whigs and Liberals are plunged.
Montalembert's paper is admirable, and I agree with almost every part of it, especially about the Indian debate and Indian policy, and the causes of Palmerston's extraordinary fall and the loss of his popularity. His prosecution by the Imperial Government is either an enormous mistake and political error, or a stroke of policy so deep and refined as to be beyond my comprehension. Here everybody regards it as a great imprudence.
PROSECUTION OF COUNT MONTALEMBERT.