December 2nd.—I returned to town yesterday, having been to Badger Hall, thence to Grimstone, then to Ossington, and yesterday from Hinchinbrook. If I have written nothing it is not from want of interesting events worth notice, but because I have known and heard nothing more than all the world learnt from the newspapers. The chief topics of interest have been the pamphlet and the trial of Montalembert and the visit of Palmerston and Clarendon to Compi�gne. The first seems to have excited more interest here than in Paris, where the tyrannical proceeding was taken very quietly, and little sympathy felt for a man who wrote so enthusiastically about England, and rebuked his own countrymen, and particularly his co-religionaries, for their unworthy conduct and language towards us. There appears to have been a general feeling of regret or disapproval of the visit to Paris, even on the part of those who are most friendly to the two Lords. I think it is a pity they should have gone just at this moment, when the Montalembert affair and the Portuguese quarrel have made the Emperor Napoleon very unpopular here; but it does not seem to me to be a matter of much consequence, or to be worth the indignation which in some quarters it has elicited.
Hillingdon, December 12th.—I went to The Grove on Wednesday last and came back on Friday. There I had long talks with Clarendon for the first time for many a day, when he told me a great deal that was interesting, just as he used to do formerly, first about his visit to Compi�gne and his conversations with the Emperor. The Emperor told him that his motive for prosecuting Montalembert was that he was aware that there was a conspiracy of literary men, enemies of his Government, to write it down in a very insidious manner, not by any direct attacks, but, under the pretence of discussing subjects either not political or not French, to introduce matter most hostile and most mischievous to him, and that it was necessary to put down such a conspiracy, and he thought the best course was to proceed at once against a man so conspicuous as Montalembert, and to make an example of him, by which others would be deterred. This was his excuse, whatever its value. It appears to me a very bad one, and I doubt if the fact itself is true, though Clarendon seemed to think it was. They had a great deal of conversation about Italy and the anti-Austrian projects attributed to France, touching which the Emperor's ideas were most strange and extravagant. He said there had been two questions in which France was interested: one the regeneration of Poland, the other the regeneration of Italy; that in the pursuit of the first France naturally became the ally of Austria against Russia, in the pursuit of the other she became the ally of Russia and Sardinia against Austria; that the peace with Russia had put an end to anything being done about the first, and the second alone became possible. Clarendon then pointed out to him all the difficulties of involving himself in such a contest as this scheme supposed, that Austria would sacrifice her last florin and her last man in defence of her Italian provinces, that to go to war with her would almost inevitably sooner or later plunge all Europe into war, and that the object to be gained by it, even by France herself, would be wholly incommensurate with the cost and the danger that would be incurred. The Emperor appeared to have no reply to make to Clarendon's remonstrances, nor did I gather that His Majesty had any casus belli against Austria, nor even any just cause of complaint to urge against her, from which I draw the inference not only that his policy is of a very wild and chimerical character, but that at any moment when he might see, or think he saw, any advantage in attacking another Power, no consideration of justice and good faith, still less of moderation and care for the happiness and peace of the world, would restrain him, and from such a contingency England would be no more exempt than any other country.[1]
[1] [It is remarkable that this conversation of the Emperor with Lord Clarendon at Compi�gne took place within a month of the speech to Baron H�bner on New Year's Day, which was the signal of war between France and Austria, and at a time when the secret alliance between the Emperor and M. de Cavour had been already concluded. The Emperor's object was evidently to delude his English guests, and Lord Clarendon was partially deceived by him, although he clearly perceived that there was danger of war ahead.]
December 12th.—Another day the Emperor asked Clarendon to come into his room, when he told him that he wanted his advice, that he was in a great dilemma and embarrassment in regard to his Roman occupation, and in a false position, from which he did not know how to extricate himself. He was dying to recall the French troops and yet unable to do it. He had always hoped to be able to get the policy laid down in the Edgar Ney letter carried out, but as soon as the Pope and his ecclesiastical councillors returned to Rome they refused to do anything, and whenever he held out any threat of withdrawing his troops they always said he might do so whenever he pleased, for they knew very well the reasons which prevented his doing it: the moment the French troops marched out there would be an uprising in Rome and in the Papal States. The religious party in France would deeply resent his exposing the Pope to any such danger, and as soon as the French went away the Austrians would march in and be masters of the whole country. Clarendon acknowledged the gravity of the situation and the difficulty, but could suggest no solution of it. They discussed the possibility of inducing the Pope to relinquish his temporal sovereignty, and to accept a great revenue instead, but neither of them seems to have thought this plan feasible.
NAPOLEON'S SPEECH TO BARON H�BNER.
January 14th,1859.—I purposed at the close of the last year to say a few words about a year which might well be called annus mirabilis and annus m�stissimus besides, for I do not remember any year marked by a greater number and variety of remarkable events and occurrences, and certainly none which has been so fatal to the happiness of so many of our friends. One calamity has succeeded another with frightful rapidity, till it is difficult to point to any one who has not sustained some terrible bereavement in the persons of near and dear relations or intimate friends. A severe fit of gout which attacked me on Christmas Day, and has kept hold of me ever since, prevented my executing my purpose, and now I have forgotten all I intended to say, and can only take up the present condition of affairs as they present themselves at the beginning of this year, and this is dark and unpromising enough. All Europe has been thrown into alarm by the speech which the Emperor Napoleon made to the Austrian Ambassador H�bner on New Year's Day, and by the announcement which followed it that Prince Napoleon was going to Turin to marry the King of Sardinia's daughter. The language of the King of Sardinia in his speech to his Parliament shortly afterwards confirmed the general apprehensions. The menacing manifestations having produced their effect, the Emperor seems to have thought it adviseable to draw in his horns, and to try and calm the effervescence he had produced. This, however, was not so easy, and in spite of certain tranquillising articles which the French Press was instructed to put forth, the impression that mischief is brewing cannot be effaced, and though many think that there will be no immediate outbreak, and the money dealers and speculators comfort themselves with thinking that want of money will prevent the great military Powers from going to war, the best informed persons, and those who are most accustomed to watch the signs of the times, are convinced that the time is near at hand when the peace of the world will be broken, that the Emperor is determined upon an aggression on Austria, and that he is only undecided as to the time when the operation shall be begun. It is now evident that when our Ex-Ministers were at Compi�gne, and when the Emperor pretended that he wanted to consult Clarendon confidentially, he only made a half-confidence of his views and his position, and that he concealed from Clarendon the important fact of the marriage of Prince Napoleon, which was arranged at the time.
The Grove, January 25th.—I have passed three days here very agreeably; a large party on Saturday and Sunday, after which Clarendon, George Lewis, and I, talking over everything interesting at home and abroad. There has been a good deal of correspondence between Clarendon and John Russell in a very friendly spirit, quite different from the terms they have been on till lately, and indicating the possibility of their coming together again in Opposition and in office. I saw also some letters of Palmerston's upon foreign affairs, exceedingly sound and judicious. I am bound to say that all I hear and see of Palmerston's views, opinions, and conduct is highly creditable to him, and very different from what I expected. He evinces no impatience to return to office, and no misconception of his own position. All he writes on foreign affairs, on France and Austria and Italy, is marked by great wisdom and moderation. He is taking his proper place as head of the Liberal and Whig party, prepared to go to Parliament and wait for the development of the policy and measures of the Government, before forming any plan of a political campaign. Reading at the same time the letters of Lord John and those of Palmerston on the same subject, that of foreign policy, I am struck with the great superiority of the latter.
LORD PALMERSTON'S VIEW OF THE ITALIAN WAR.
Bretby, January 27th.—I left The Grove yesterday morning, and came here to-day. At breakfast yesterday Clarendon handed over to me a letter from Reeve, enclosing one from Guizot upon the aspect of affairs in Europe and the chances of war and peace; an admirable letter, as all his are. Reeve said that he had been told that Palmerston was likely to give utterance to some sentiments very anti-Austrian, and in favour of Italian nationality, than which nothing could be more mischievous or more conducive to the objects of Louis Napoleon. This seemed to me so inconsistent with the spirit of moderation and good sense which I had remarked in the letters I had already seen of Palmerston's, that I said I could not think it possible that he was meditating anything of the sort, and I was greatly surprised when Clarendon replied, and George Lewis agreed with him, that nothing was more possible, and that he should not be at all surprised if he expressed sentiments which were very much those which he had always entertained. Of course they both deprecated any such language in the strongest manner. When I got to town I told Reeve what had passed, and he then told me his authority for what he had written, and that his informant had gathered it from conversations with Palmerston himself. It was at all events satisfactory to find that the language of the 'Times' had undergone no alteration, and that they adhered to the same judicious course and vigorous argumentation which they have all along adopted. Clarendon and George Lewis are equally afraid of what John Russell may say, but they are aware that though he may do considerable mischief, his dicta are infinitely less important than Palmerston's. Granville arrived last night from Paris and Rome, and I saw him for a few minutes as I was starting to come here. I had just time to ascertain that his views are identical with those of Clarendon and George Lewis, and that his efforts will be joined to theirs in attempting to persuade both Palmerston and John Russell to refrain from saying anything which may serve as an encouragement to the Emperor, and George Lewis said that on Palmerston's language in the House of Commons the peace of the world might possibly depend. There seems no reason to doubt that one of the things which keeps the Emperor's mind in suspense and uncertainty is his desire to hear what passes in our Parliament, and to ascertain what amount of sympathy and support the Italian cause and a war against Austria are likely to find in this country. Palmerston must have already taken such a measure of the public feeling here as to know that any appeal to anti-Austrian and pro-Italian sympathies would meet with no response either in or out of Parliament. The most, therefore, that he will probably venture to do will be strenuously to recommend a complete neutrality, and that this country should determine to keep aloof from any contest that may ensue. This would be playing the Emperor's game, and might perhaps be more useful to him than any other course we could take, for it would find pretty general concurrence, and most likely elicit many expressions of opinions which the Emperor would be able with some plausibility to construe in the manner most favourable to his own pretensions and designs.
January 31st.—Dined with Lord Salisbury on Saturday at the Sheriffs' dinner, when I met all the Cabinet, except Malmesbury, Hardwicke, and John Manners. Derby told me a curious thing. An experiment was made of the possible speed by which a telegraphic message could be sent and an answer got. They fixed on Corfu, made every preparation, and sent one word. The message and return were effected in six seconds. I would not have believed this on any other authority.