March 3rd.—It would be difficult to say what the feeling of the House of Commons really is on the subject of the Government Reform Bill. The night it came out everybody who spoke spoke against it. The Ultra-Reformers, from Bright down to John Russell, naturally express nothing but abhorrence and contempt for such a measure; half-and-half Reformers, who consider Reform a necessity, and who would be glad to have the question settled for the present on such easy terms, do not venture to say much in its favour; and the Whigs generally, particularly at their head-quarters, Brooks's, discuss with much variety of opinion whether the second reading ought to be resisted or not, the prevailing opinion being that the principle of the Bill (which is the equalisation of town and county franchise) is so inadmissible that it ought to be rejected, and they come to that conclusion the more readily because they think its rejection in that stage would put an end to the Government. On the other hand, Derby brought together two hundred of his supporters the day after the Bill appeared, and obtained their assent to it, and an engagement to support it. The resignations of Henley and Walpole have been prejudicial to the Government. Their explanations, which were full of half-suppressed bitterness towards their colleagues, were considered damaging, and to have revealed trickery on the part of Derby, though they seem to me to have rather exhibited weakness on the part of the retiring Ministers. But what they have clearly shown is the extreme penury of the party in point of intellectual resources, when they can find no man of any weight or reputation to fill up the vacancies. But if the Government is weak, and their position very precarious, the state of the Opposition is at least as deplorable, for there is no union or agreement amongst them, and Granville acknowledged to me last night that if Derby should fall on the second reading, and Palmerston be sent for, as it may be expected he would be, by the Queen, that it is impossible to see how another Government could be formed. This state of affairs and the magnitude of the embarrassment will probably at last make some of those who so obstinately insisted upon their being right in resigning last year after the Vote of Censure, begin to think that they would have done better to accept the rebuke and stay in. All that is now occurring serves to confirm my own opinion upon that point.
Since Cowley's arrival at Vienna nothing has been heard of his mission, but there is nothing apparent tending to lead to the conclusion that he has been able to do any good, and the general impression is that the Emperor Napoleon is only endeavouring to gain time, and making a tool of Cowley in hopes of thereby committing this country in some degree to his ulterior designs, and there are not wanting persons who believe that it will after all be against this country that his arms will be turned, and not against Austria.
March 8th.—On Saturday morning the 'Times' published the article in the 'Moniteur' (evidently the Emperor's composition), in which a formal denial was given to the imputed warlike intentions of France. The general impression produced by this manifesto was that the Emperor had at last been diverted from his purpose by the various manifestations which he had seen at home as well as abroad, and that he had resolved to abandon it altogether. Many, however, refused to believe in this happy result, and thought that he was only trying to throw dust in the eyes of the world, and endeavouring to gain time. All things considered, I incline to believe that he has resolved to postpone his warlike designs sine die, though retaining his wish to employ the vast means on which he has expended so much money, and looking forward to some pretext which the chapter of accidents may afford him to execute his purpose.
Strenuous efforts are making to bring about an understanding and agreement between the Whig leaders as to opposing the Government Bill, in which nobody is so active as George Lewis, who being very intimate with John Russell, and much in his confidence, and at the same time still on a footing of an adherent of Palmerston, is better qualified than any one to form a link between the two and to produce a mutual accord. John Russell has drawn up certain Resolutions which he intends to move on the second reading. These Resolutions have been shown to George Grey and to Palmerston, who have agreed to support them, and it may be presumed that if all the Whig leaders, or even most of them, take this course, they will be followed by the majority of the rank and file. The Government and their friends are considerably alarmed at this hostile demonstration, and the more disappointed because they had been led to believe that Palmerston intended to support the second reading, and they knew that many moderate Whigs were inclined to take the same course. Some may do so still, but if the rival leaders can agree upon an attack on the Bill, though they may be agreed on nothing else, it is certainly probable that the Government will be beaten. Then will come the question of dissolution or resignation. This will probably depend on the amount and composition of the majority, and it will be a knotty point for Derby to decide upon.
OPPOSITION TO THE REFORM BILL.
Savernake, March 9th.—I met George Lewis at the Athen�um yesterday, and had a talk about the state of affairs here. He told me that the whole Liberal party, he believed, would support John Russell's Resolutions. There had been considerable doubt at first whether the second reading of the Bill should be opposed or not, but upon a close examination of the Bill they found that it was such a dishonest measure that it could not be allowed to pass, and therefore it was better to throw it out at once. Palmerston and Lord John are now on very good terms. Lord John had sent his Resolutions to Palmerston, and Palmerston had sent him word he would support whatever he proposed. Lewis thinks, though there is no agreement between them further than this with regard to the Reform Bill, that if this Government falls, and the Whigs return to power, means will be found of adjusting the rival pretensions of the two leaders, and getting them to act together. To effect this, his reliance is mainly on the Queen, who he thinks may and will exert her influence and authority for this end. There is, however, a notion abroad that if John Russell persists in his Resolutions, the Government will withdraw the first clause, which is tantamount to withdrawing the Bill itself. Lewis believes in this intention, and that if they do it they will become so unpopular, and incur so much discredit, that it will be impossible for them to go on or to attempt a dissolution. Another notion is that they will withdraw the Bill, and endeavour to go on without any Bill at all, trusting to the Opposition not daring to propose a vote of want of confidence, which it is very doubtful if they could carry. The only thing clear is that they are very anxious to turn the Government out, and to take their chance of the consequences. Their success seems not at all unlikely, but when they have accomplished their object their embarrassments will begin. First there will be Lord John and Palmerston, then l'embarras des richesses of the numerous candidates for office, and settling who is to come in and who are to be thrown overboard.
March 15th.—Cowley arrived from Vienna on Saturday. I have not yet seen him, but Clarendon told me yesterday that he brings back the most satisfactory assurances on the part of Austria, who is ready to give every pledge of her pacific intentions, and to come to any agreement with France upon the withdrawal of both their forces from the Papal States, but that she will make no concessions inconsistent with her rights and her dignity, or which could seem to damp the enthusiasm now prevailing in Germany in her favour; in fact, that she has no concessions to make. Within the last few days the symptoms from France have been more menacing. At Paris the conviction is general that war is meant, and I am obliged to believe it likewise. The resignation of Prince Napoleon seems to have been a mere sham, and his intimacy with the Emperor as close as ever. There is no reason to believe that the military preparations in France are suspended, and in Piedmont they are certainly going on actively.
LORD JOHN RUSSELL'S RESOLUTIONS.
The other great topic of interest, viz. the Reform Bill and John Russell's Resolutions, does not look in a more satisfactory state. While many sensible people deprecate this move of John Russell's, and lament that Palmerston should have consented to support it, the probability seems that it will be carried, but the greatest uncertainty prevails as to the course which the Government will adopt, and whether they will try to go on, dropping their Bill altogether, or continue the fight with its remaining clauses, or whether they will take the chance of a dissolution. It is now clear enough that Derby made a great blunder in undertaking to deal with the question of Reform at all, and that a consistent Conservative course would have been the most honourable and the wisest, and have afforded him the best chance of staying in office. By bringing forward a measure to the principle of which it is well known that he and his whole Government and party are in their hearts adverse, and then trying to vitiate the principle by certain contrivances in the details, by which the scruples of his own party may be obviated, he exposes himself to the charge of producing a dishonest measure, and this is what the Whigs urge as their ground for attacking it in front and at once. This is what Lewis said to me, 'We are bound to defeat a measure which is so dishonest that it is not susceptible of such improvement in Committee as would warrant our passing it.' The conduct of the Whigs, however, is not a whit more honest. Their allegation is a mere pretext, and their real motive is that they think they see their way back to office through an attack upon the Government Bill; they are indifferent to the consequences, and all they want is to get the coast clear for themselves, and take the chance of settling the difficult questions which will arise as to the formation of a Government and the conditions on which it can be formed. All this appears to me quite as dishonest as anything the Government have done or are doing. Palmerston never was a Reformer. He was opposed as much as he dared and could be even to the great measure of 1832, which all the world was for. When he brought forward a measure of his own two or three years ago, he did it without sincerity or conviction, and merely for a party object, and now he is uniting with John Russell without any real agreement with him in opinion, and with full knowledge that if they succeed and climb into office on the ruins of the Government Bill he will be obliged to propose a measure much stronger than he believes to be either necessary or safe. Believing that Palmerston and John Russell were agreed no further than upon the Resolutions on Monday next, I thought that a difference must arise between them (in the event of their coming into office) on the Reform Bill they should produce, but I was told just now that upon this point they are already nearly if not completely agreed. They are, however, not yet agreed upon the great question of the Premiership, or which of them shall go to the House of Lords. The impatience and confidence of Lord John seems to be unbounded, and in spite of his being the younger by seven years, his eagerness to be in office again much more intense than that of Palmerston. Although this is such a miserable Government, both discreditable and incompetent, and it is a misfortune to have the country ruled by such men, I cannot desire the success of such selfish and unpatriotic manœuvres as those by which the Whigs are endeavouring to supplant them, and consequently I regard the whole state of affairs with indescribable disgust and no small apprehension. I believe the country to be in nearly equal danger from Louis Napoleon abroad and Mr. Bright at home, and I fear that there is no capacity in the Government to cope with the one, and no such amount of wisdom and patriotism amongst the chief men of all parties as is requisite to defeat the designs of the other.
March 16th.—Cowley called on me yesterday at the Council Office. He said that he had never believed there would be war, and he did not expect it now; that all the agitation and turmoil that had been vexing Europe for the last three months were to be attributed to the conduct of Cavour and his attempts to drag France into assisting Piedmont in her aggressive policy, and to misunderstandings which had been produced by the strange conduct of the French Government, the imprudent speech of the Emperor to H�bner on January 1st, and the ambiguous manifestations which had followed it. To comprehend all these things it was necessary to be acquainted with the whole course of Cavour's policy and his dealings with France, and to understand the peculiar character of the Emperor and the motives and impulses by which he is actuated. When Austria refused to join England and France in the Russian War, Cavour thought that an opportunity presented itself of which he might take advantage, and which would lead to a realisation of his views for the aggrandisement of Piedmont, and he offered to join the alliance and send an army to the Crimea. This offer (as Cowley thinks very imprudently and unfortunately) was accepted. He thinks it was unwise, because the assistance of Piedmont was not required, and could not have any material effect on the result of the contest, while it was sure to excite hopes and expectations, and to give rise to demands which would be afterwards found very inconvenient and embarrassing. Accordingly Cavour took the earliest opportunity of expressing his hopes that when peace should return Sardinia and her services would not be overlooked. General expressions of goodwill were given, but Cowley cannot answer for what more the Emperor may have said.