LORD COWLEY'S VIENNA NEGOTIATION.
His account of his mission does not quite correspond with what I had before heard of it, and is an additional proof of the difficulty of arriving at truth. He told me that he had written to Malmesbury and told him he thought it very expedient to send somebody to Vienna to talk to Buol and the Emperor, and to try and mediate between Austria and France, to which Malmesbury had replied he had better go himself, as nobody else would be so likely to effect the object. The consent of Buol having been previously obtained, he proposed it at Paris, where his services were gladly accepted. He had already spoken very openly to the Emperor, and told him very plain truths as to his position and his conduct, and when he went he told His Majesty without disguise what his intentions were and his wishes, and what he desired that Austria should do. The Emperor was very frank, totally disdained any wish to make war, but said he should like Austria to do certain things, which amounted to full security for Piedmont and renunciation of any unfair and unjustifiable predominance in Italy. He found them at Vienna more angry than alarmed; suspicious, but not unreasonable; their military condition so good and powerful that, believing France really bent on attacking them, there was a very general feeling that it was better war should come at once than have it indefinitely hanging over them, and at first it seemed unlikely that they would return any conciliatory assurances which he might carry back to France. At last, however, he got them to say what he thought was as much as could be expected from them, and what ought to satisfy the French Government. Since he left Paris (now three weeks ago or more) he has not had a line from thence, and he is wholly ignorant of the march of affairs during his absence; but he hopes and expects to find a pacific disposition, and his object is to prevail on the Emperor to put an end to the general state of uncertainty and alarm by announcing to Sardinia that she is in no danger from Austria, and that therefore no assistance from France will be necessary, and she may safely desist from her warlike preparations. This is in fact the only way by which the crisis can be put an end to, and if the Emperor really has been sincere in his professions and means to make his acts correspond with them, he will forthwith put forward some clear and unambiguous declaration, and some definite communication to Piedmont which will leave no room for doubt or suspicion, and restore confidence and tranquillity to Europe again.
March 22nd.—Yesterday the 'Times' announced that a Congress had been agreed upon, which was believed, so the funds rose and there was a general belief that a solution was at hand, but it turns out not to be true. The Emperor wishes for one as a means by which he may back out of his scrape, which Cowley writes is now his object, but it is impossible to believe that Austria will listen to it, and Clarendon thinks that she would do wrong to consent to it, and that we should get into a scrape by being a party to it, as no reliance whatever can be placed on the good faith or honesty of France, who would deceive us and Austria, as she has often done before.
Yesterday the Neapolitan exiles arrived at an hotel in Dover Street in several hack cabs, decorated with laurels, and preceded by a band of music. I did not see the men, but saw the empty cabs; there was no crowd.
Nothing could be more uninteresting than the first evening of the debate on John Russell's Resolutions last night. Lord March told me in the morning that the Government would certainly dissolve as soon as the Resolutions were carried. Every day makes the folly of Derby more apparent in bringing in any Reform Bill at all.
DEBATE ON REFORM BILL
March 24th.—When I think of the Reform Bill of 1832, and compare the state of affairs at that time with that of the present time, nothing can be more extraordinary. Then the interest was intense, the whole country in a fever of excitement, the Press rabid, the clamour for Reform all but universal, party running tremendously high, no doubt or hesitation about individual wishes and opinions, and each camp perfectly united in itself, and full of energy and zeal. In this condition of the public mind and of politics the debates began and continued. This debate has begun and seems likely to continue, how differently! There are neither zeal nor union on one side or the other, everybody is dissatisfied with the state of affairs, and nobody can see a satisfactory issue from the general embarrassment. There have been two nights of debate, and as yet all the speaking has been one way, all on the anti-Reform side. John Russell was flat, and Stanley, who replied to him, actually read his speech, which, though it was much complimented by his own friends, seems to have been far from effective. Horsman made a very good speech the first night, and Bulwer Lytton spoke with great eloquence and effect on Tuesday, far better than anybody thought he could speak, and the Solicitor-General made a magnificent speech, in which he attacked John Russell with great vigour and complete success. The only tolerable speech on the Opposition side was Sidney Herbert's. Nobody has the least idea what course the Government will take of the three open to them, whether they will resign, dissolve, or go on with the second reading. The inference from Stanley's speech was that they will dissolve, but Lytton and Cairns seemed anxious to do away with the impression that speech had made, and one is led to infer from what they said that the Government will most likely proceed to the second reading, which would probably be their wisest and certainly their most popular course. The majority of those who are going to vote for the Resolutions do so unwillingly, and would have preferred going into Committee, or to have fought the battle on the second reading. As it is, if Government do not throw up their cards, the second reading is in my opinion sure to pass, and not improbably the Bill itself with great alterations.
The state of foreign affairs is as uncertain as ever. So incurable is the distrust of the Emperor Napoleon that the greatest doubts prevail whether he means peace or war, and whether even this Congress which he is trying to bring about is not a mere dodge for the purpose of gaining time, and in order to extract out of it a plausible case for a complete breach with Austria.
Gladstone is come back from Italy completely duped by Cavour, who has persuaded him that Piedmont has no ambition or aggressive objects, and that Austria alone is guilty of all the trouble in which the world has been plunged. He told this to Aberdeen, who treated his delusions and his credulity with the utmost scorn and contempt, but he is said to have found John Russell more credulous, and ready to accept Gladstone's convictions.
March 26th.—The debate goes on, to the intense disgust of everybody, though enlivened by a few clever and telling speeches. But everybody is disgusted with the whole affair, from which all see that no good can come, and probably much mischief will ensue. The Government side continues to have the best of the debate, Horsman, who spoke for them, and Lytton and Cairns having been very superior to all the speakers on the other side. On Friday Palmerston spoke, with great vigour, but not much effect. His speech was very jaunty, but very insincere. When he said that he cordially supported the Resolutions of his noble friend, everybody knew that it was not true, that he really disapproved of them and that he only consented to go with Lord John in order to evince his willingness to make up their political difference, and to lend himself to the reunion of all the Whig party; but in his speech he said enough to show that there is not likely to be an entire or lasting agreement between them, and that the two Kings of Brentford will not long continue to smell at the same nosegay. The Opposition have been all along quite confident of victory on the Resolutions, and it has been impossible to make sure of the intentions of the Government in the event of their being beaten, as they have severally held such very different language on the point.