But an incident has occurred which is very likely to extricate the Government from their difficulty, and of which I presume they will avail themselves. Owen Stanley (brother of Stanley of Alderley) the other night blurted out, without previous concert with anybody, a notice of a motion of want of confidence in the event of the second reading not passing. The Opposition are unanimously disgusted at this piece of folly and meddling, while the Government are of course delighted at such a plank of safety being held out to them, and if they use it dexterously, they may completely defeat Lord John and Palmerston, and prolong their own tenure of office for some time at least.
DEFEAT OF THE MINISTRY
April 1st.—The great debate came to an end last night. The majority was greater than either side expected, and the Government and their friends were sanguine to the last that they should win by a few votes.[1] Although there was a great deal of tedious speaking, it was on the whole a very able and creditable debate, and there were several very powerful speeches, but principally on the side of the minority. Gladstone's was particularly good, and Dizzy's reply, with a very effective philippic against John Russell, was exceedingly clever, and delivered with much dignity and in very good taste. Although the question of Reform was regarded with so much indifference, as the debate proceeded and party spirit and emulation waxed hot, the interest and curiosity became intense. They have become still more intense to-day, and the town is in a state of feverish anxiety to know what is going to happen, and, as usual on such occasions, there are a thousand reports, speculations, and guesses afloat. This morning the prevalent idea was that they would resign, but this evening, and since Derby's brief notice in the House of Lords, it is rather that they will dissolve. Certainly the Queen might very well refuse her consent to a dissolution if proposed to her, and this would of course compel the Government to resign; but nobody knows whether she wishes Derby to stay in, or would prefer to take the chance of forming another Ministry. I have no idea that happen what may she will send for Lord John Russell; but no doubt she knows all that has recently passed between him and Palmerston, and about the formation of another Government, and it is not impossible that she may shrink from being plunged into the difficulties which would attend the attempts to form a Government in which they were to divide the power and authority between them.
[1] [The numbers were: for the second reading of the Bill 291, for Lord John Russell's Resolutions 330; majority against the Government 39.]
April 4th.—The report yesterday was that Derby does not mean to resign or dissolve, or to go on with the present Bill, but perhaps bring in a fresh one. As we shall hear it all this evening, it is useless to speculate on the subject. The Opposition are evidently puzzled what to do. I went to Kent House, where Lewis said the Government were much mistaken if they imagined they should be left alone; he did not know what would be done, but certainly they must look to be attacked in some shape or other. Granville in the evening took the opposite line, and said the best party game would be to let them alone. Nothing, however, will ever induce John Russell to keep quiet.
M. DE CAVOUR'S POLICY
Clarendon came in, and we talked of foreign affairs. He thinks war inevitable, and that the French are only gaining time to complete their preparations. I said I thought Cowley had been duped by the Emperor, but he thought not. Cowley had all along seen all the objections to the proposed Congress and suspected the arri�re pens�e of it, but said it was impossible when proposed to object to it, as the Emperor would put forward such a refusal as a pretext, and say that it would have prevented war. Two years ago he had a reliance upon the Emperor which he had no longer; that he was completely changed now from what he was, and it was difficult to know what he really meant, and when he was sincere or the reverse. Clarendon told us he had lately seen Marliani, an old acquaintance of his, a Spanish Liberal and friend of Cavour's. Marliani said that the Italian question was ill understood in England, and he had come over for the express purpose of seeing Clarendon and talking it over with him, and putting before him a paper he had written upon it. The conversation was curious. Clarendon told him he was quite mistaken if he thought the Government or any other Government could take any part at variance with the existing treaties, or that the country would allow them to do so, even if inclined. He then asked him what his friend Cavour meant to do in the dilemma in which he had got himself and his country, and expressed very strong opinions on his conduct. Marliani replied that it was not quite just to censure Cavour with such severity, and without considering his position, that during his whole life his most ardent desire and fixed idea was that of purging Italy of the Austrians and aggrandising his own country, and now when he saw before him the probable realisation of his fond hopes, that he was backed up and encouraged by the master of 300,000 men in the game he was playing, and taught to rely upon that aid, could it be wondered at that he should yield to the seduction? Clarendon asked what would happen if the Emperor proved faithless to him, as he had done to others, and in what position Cavour would find himself. Marliani replied that he had no hesitation in telling him what he thought need not be a secret, at least to him, as he was sure Cavour would tell Clarendon himself if he saw him, and that Cavour had fully made up his mind what to do. If the Emperor ended by throwing over the Italian cause and refused to go to war, Cavour would resign, the King would abdicate, and the whole correspondence with all the Emperor's letters (of which they had an immense number) would be published and circulated over all Europe to show the baseness and perfidy of the man in whom they had trusted, and to force him to hide his head from the indignation and contempt of the world. Everything indicates that, whether from fear of this vindictive explosion or because he thinks it his policy, he is hastening his preparations, has renewed his engagements to Cavour, and that he means to go to war as soon as he can.