The Government determine to dissolve the Parliament—Apathy of the Country—Hopes and Fears as to the War—The Congress a Trick—Disraeli on the approaching Elections—War declared—Mr. Greville resigns the Clerkship of the Council—Result of the Elections—Mistakes of the Austrian Government—Policy of the Opposition—Reconciliation of Lord Palmerston and Lord John Russell—The Reconciliation doubtful—Meeting of the Liberal Party—Resolution of the Meeting—Debate on the Resolution of Want of Confidence—Defeat of Ministers—Lord Derby resigns—Lord Granville sent for by the Queen—Lord Granville does not form a Government—Lord Palmerston sent for—Lord Palmerston's Second Administration—The Queen confers the Garter on Lord Derby—Successful Progress of the French in Italy—Causes of Lord Granville's Failure—Lord John claims the Foreign Office—Lord Clarendon declines to take Office—Lord Clarendon's Interview with the Queen—Mr. Cobden declines to take Office—The Armistice of Villafranca—Peace concluded—The Terms of Peace—Position of the Pope—Disappointment of Italy—Conference of the Emperors—Alleged Sensitiveness of the Emperor Napoleon—Details of the War—A Visit to Ireland—Irish National Education—Dublin—Howth Castle—Waterford—Killarney—Return from Ireland—Numerous Cabinets—A Dispute with China—Lord Palmerston and Lord John Russell—Lord Clarendon at Osborne—Spain and Morocco—The Duc d'Aumale—Perplexity of the Emperor Napoleon—The Emperor Napoleon and the 'Times.'
DISSOLUTION OF PARLIAMENT.
April 7th, 1859.—The determination of the Government, announced in both Houses on Monday evening, took the world by surprise. Nobody thought there would be a dissolution. Derby's speech was very bad, much below his usual level. The attack on John Russell which formed a chief part of it was merely a r�chauff� of that of Disraeli, but very inferior to it in every respect. Disraeli in the other House spoke much better, and with more taste and temper. The Opposition leaders are evidently much taken aback; the Derbyites assert that they have reason to expect a gain of forty votes, but nobody believes it. Many think a much more Radical and an angry Parliament will be returned, but there is no excitement, and it seems to me more probable that those are right who think the relative proportions will not be materially altered. The Whig chiefs are very angry with John Russell for committing himself as he did on Monday night by his speech and announcement of his own plan of Reform. Great attempts were made to dissuade him from doing this, but he would not listen to reason. Palmerston made a speech clearly indicative of disagreement with Lord John, though with a semblance of union. The Resolutions on one side and the Dissolution on the other have both been great faults, of which the mischievous consequences may be very serious, but which cannot be made manifest till we see the result of the election.
April 15th.—I have been reading over to George Lewis my account of what took place about the Reform Bill of 1832, to assist him in reviewing that period of history, and in so doing it is impossible not to be struck with the contrast between the public excitement which prevailed then and the apathy and absence of interest which we witness now. At every general election there is a great deal of bustle, activity, party zeal, and contention, but there are not more of these now than on ordinary occasions, if anything less. Both parties are confident that they shall gain, and the Derbyites are making great efforts, and have collected a very large sum of money. Derby has given 20,000l. to the fund, but candidates are slack in coming forward with the prospect of the new Parliament not lasting many months. The question of peace or war is still in abeyance, but inclines rather towards war; the public securities oscillate like a barometer, and people are puzzled and unable to form any opinion.
April 20th.—The long promised statements were made in both Houses on Monday night, but they told us nothing that was not already known, and merely expressed hopes that war might still be averted. Disraeli in the Commons was more sanguine than Malmesbury and Derby in the Lords. Clarendon and Derby both made excellent speeches, the former particularly; all he said was sound and true. The most striking thing in both Houses was the extreme caution and reserve of the speakers on both sides, and particularly their reticence and forbearance about France. Not one word of blame of the Emperor of the French; no more about him, his sayings and doings, than about the Emperor of Russia, or than if he had had nothing whatever to do with the present state of things. This was probably politic, but it was lamentable and disgraceful that we should be obliged, or think ourselves obliged, to abstain from speaking the truth, for fear of offending this rascally adventurer, who by the egregious folly and cowardice of the French nation has been invested with such an awful power of mischief, and whom neither fear nor shame deters from pursuing his own wicked ends at the expense of any amount of misery and desolation which he may inflict upon mankind. One cannot help contrasting the extreme delicacy and forbearance exhibited towards him with the violence and abuse which were directed against the Emperor Nicholas in 1854.
MR. DISRAELI'S EXPECTATIONS.
I met Disraeli yesterday afternoon, when he told me they had got such satisfactory news from the Continent that he considered the affair as virtually settled and the danger at an end. God grant it may be so, but I am far from being satisfied that the danger is over. On the eve of great resolutions, and as the moment of taking an irrevocable step draws near, the actors in great events have generally some misgivings, and pause upon the brink, and so probably will these quasi-belligerents do now; but I believe the concessions which France expresses herself willing to make to our entreaties to be a part of her game. Clarendon or Derby said that if Cowley had been allowed to work out his purpose of mediation, probably all would have been settled, and that the proposition of Russia for a Congress had been mischievous, and only involved the question in fresh doubt and delay. But it appears evident that this was a French trick, and that Russia proposed the Congress at the instigation of France, who sought it for the purpose of delay, and most likely in order to extract from it a plausible cause of quarrel. Derby in his speech attributed a great deal to the menacing and disturbing speech of the King of Sardinia in opening his Chambers, but nobody said a word of Napoleon's sortie to the Austrian Minister on the 1st January, nor was any allusion made to various important facts which were well known to many people in both Houses. No reproaches were cast upon Sardinia, but a good many upon Austria; no comment made upon the flagrant breach by Sardinia of the treaties existing between her and Austria, and of the forbearance of the latter in not making that breach a casus belli, as she might well have done.
I went to a Council on Monday for the prorogation, when I had some conversation with Disraeli, and asked him what his real belief was as to their prospects in the election. He said there was so much luck in these matters that it was difficult to speak positively, but that he had endeavoured to ascertain the true probabilities of the result, and his conclusion was that if they had luck they should gain sixty votes; and what, I asked, if there was no luck on one side or the other? Then, he said, they should gain forty. I told him the Opposition calculators did not believe the Government would gain at all, or at most not above eight or ten, if so many, and asked if he was confident they should gain from twenty to thirty anyhow. He said from the day of their taking office they had looked forward to a dissolution, that their organisation was excellent, they had plenty of candidates and of money, and he was quite confident they should gain that number and more; he added that there was in no part of the country the slightest desire for Reform, and he had altered the address he had first intended to put forth, in consequence of finding what the prevailing sentiment was on that question. I suppose they hold this language to justify their dissolution, for it is difficult to believe they can really expect such results, or that their opponents, who tell such a different story, can be so completely mistaken.
April 24th, Newmarket.—Disraeli's information on Tuesday last, when I met him at Lady Jersey's, might well have warranted me in believing that no war would take place, but I have never been able to persuade myself that this calamity would be averted, and it appears that my apprehensions were well founded, for now the die seems to be really cast, and at the moment when I am writing it is probably actually declared and begun. Though Austria is perfectly justified in declining to wait any longer while France is maturing her preparations, and cannot justly be blamed for bringing the affair to a crisis, she is certain to be exposed to every sort of obloquy and misrepresentations even in this country, and of course much more in France.
April 27th.—On Monday we heard that the Austrians had sent their ultimatum to Sardinia, and there was a complete panic in the City. Yesterday we were informed that she had given fourteen days' grace to Sardinia, and everything was up again. But this morning we were undeceived, and found this latter report had no foundation. Meanwhile the clamour against Austria has been senseless and disgraceful; nothing could be more unworthy than Derby's allusion to her in his speech at the Mansion House dinner on Monday. It was a claptrap, and meant to obtain popularity and assist the Ministerial interest at the election. Nothing has ever disgusted me more than to see the readiness with which everybody finds fault with Austria, and the care with which they avoid any notice of France, not, however, that this can or will last. What sort of relations we shall continue to have with France I cannot imagine. We have been treated in a manner which puts an end to the possibility of any amicable feelings between the two countries. We can never trust the Emperor again, and must take measures for our own security as best we may; but unhappily the Indian war has so materially diminished our power and absorbed our resources, and France has so enormously gained upon us in point of naval strength, that we are not in a condition to hold the language and play the part that befit the dignity and the honour of the country. We can revile Austria with impunity, for we know that we are in no danger of an attack from her, but, on the contrary, that she has so much need of our good will that she will endure our taunts and reproaches, and not quarrel with us even in words. It was a prophetic saying of Mackintosh forty years ago at Roehampton that it remained to be proved whether the acquisition of our Indian Empire was in reality a gain to us, and we must hope that the remark will not be illustrated in our days by seeing England herself placed in danger by her exertions to retain or reconquer India, whose value is so problematical and of which nothing is certain but the immense labour and cost of her retention.