WAR IN ITALY.
May 14th.—Another severe fit of the gout, principally in the right hand, has prevented my writing a line for the last fortnight, during which war has broken out, and the general election has been begun and ended, and, what is most important to myself, I have resigned my office. Hitherto the war and the election have equally disappointed the expectations they gave rise to. The Austrians committed a blunder in plunging into the war, and have not taken the only advantage such a measure seemed to promise, viz. that of overpowering the Sardinians before the French could join them, and now nobody can make out what their tactics are, or when and where the contest will begin in earnest. Meanwhile we are taking an imposing attitude of armed and prepared neutrality. Disraeli's anticipated sixty votes have dwindled down to a gain of twenty, but Malmesbury told Cowley that they should have force sufficient to maintain their ground, which I see their opponents do not believe.
May 17th.—The elections are nearly if not quite over, and, as well as can be collected from the conflicting calculations of the rival parties, they present a gain of nearly thirty for the Government. With this they evidently hope and their opponents fear they will be able to go on at least to the end of the session, and I incline to think so likewise. Their Government is miserably weak and incapable, their numbers respectable, but their staff deplorable. It is expected they will propose to Lord Elgin to take Lytton's place. The general election has been eminently satisfactory in this, that it has elicited the completely Conservative spirit of the country. Palmerston, who predicted that the consequence would be a large increase of Radical strength, has been altogether mistaken. It may be added (whether this is a good or an evil) that it has also manifested the indifference of the country to all parties and to all political ties and connexions. In the last general election the cry was all for Palmerston, in this there has been no cry for anybody, neither for Palmerston nor Derby, and less than all for John Russell or Bright. And yet John Russell is flattering himself he shall have an opportunity of forming a Government, and talks of his regret at being obliged to leave out so many of his friends. It is remarkable that the Catholics have supported the Government, and that they have done so under orders from Rome. Archbishop Cullen is there, and has signified to the priests the pleasure of the Pope that the Derby Government should be supported. Clarendon told me this yesterday, and that the reason is because they think this Government more favourably inclined to Austria than any other, especially than either Palmerston or John Russell would be. The Papal Government have never forgiven the Whigs for the Ecclesiastical Titles Bill, and this accounts for the otherwise strange support given by the Catholics to those who have always been their bitterest enemies.
The war still languishes, and nobody can make out what the Austrian plans are. A great sensation has been made by the retirement of Buol and the appointment of Rechberg. The first report was that it was a sacrifice made to appease the resentment of Russia, but Clarendon told me yesterday he did not believe this, but that it was rather to satisfy some of the German Powers whom Buol had deeply offended. Nothing could have exceeded the stupid blundering and misconduct of the Austrian Government during the last few critical weeks, and their want of tact towards Prussia and the German Powers. The Archduke Albrecht was sent to Germany for the purpose of stirring up the German Powers, and professedly to procure such a demonstration as should be the means of preventing war, and then, while the Archduke was still at Berlin, they blurted out their ultimatum (which was a declaration of war) without letting Prussia know what they were about. The Archduke was obliged to declare his own ignorance of the intentions of his Government, and Prussia consequently to announce her disapprobation of the measure and to signify the same to France, which was just what suited the Emperor Louis Napoleon. I hear also that his departure from Paris was accelerated by the necessity of repairing as speedily as possible to the seat of war, in order to quiet the dissensions and quarrels which were already raging between the French generals. Not a very promising beginning of the campaign. This used to be the case formerly in the great Napoleon's time wherever he was not present. His presence silenced these quarrels, but it remains to be seen whether this man will have equal authority over unruly subordinates, who cannot possibly regard him with the same deference with which the old marshals looked up to their mighty master.
RESULT OF THE ELECTIONS.
May 24th.—The elections are all over, and the Opposition leaders are already busy in devising the means of attacking the Government. On Friday Palmerston went to Pembroke Lodge, and had a long conference with John Russell. On Sunday there was a gathering there, attended by Granville, George Lewis, Charles Wood, and probably others. The question immediately to be decided is whether an Amendment shall or not be moved to the Address. A very nice point of political strategy. The Whig leaders are impatient to drive the Government to resignation, without, as I believe, knowing how they are to form a Government likely to be durable and strong. As matters stand, the Government appear to be too strong to be driven out, and not strong enough to count upon staying in. A greater fix can hardly be seen.
May 26th.—Palmerston and John Russell have now made up all their differences, and have come to a complete understanding and agreement on all points, so that the schism may be considered at an end. Upon Reform, upon foreign policy, upon the mode of opposition, they are fully agreed, and even upon their respective personal pretensions. Both are resolved not to quit the House of Commons, and Lord John himself says that the question of the Primacy must be determined by the Queen herself, and that whomever she may send for and charge with the formation of a Government must necessarily be Premier. There is not much doubt that this will be Palmerston, but what post Lord John would require for himself I have not heard. It may possibly be the Foreign Office, which Palmerston could hardly refuse to him, particularly as they are agreed on foreign policy, and Clarendon is not inclined to share their opinion. This reconciliation will be very favourable to Granville's pretensions, and secure to him the lead of the House of Lords, and not improbably, at some not very distant day, lead to his being Prime Minister. In this age of political Methuselahs it is an enormous advantage to be little more than forty years old. This state of affairs I heard at Brooks's from the Duke of Bedford. It was Lord John who took the initiative in their approaches to each other. He wrote to Palmerston, on which Palmerston repaired to Pembroke Lodge, where they had a long conversation, with the result aforesaid. Soon afterwards I met Disraeli in the street. He did not appear to me to be in very high spirits, and talked of the position and chances of his Government without any expressions of confidence, though without despondence. He said he hoped that they would move an Amendment to the Address, as it was better to fight it out at once and bring the question of strength to a crisis.
LORD PALMERSTON AND LORD JOHN RUSSELL.
May 29th.—It seems not unlikely that the Government may be after all relieved from the immediate danger of an Amendment by the divisions amongst the Opposition, or rather between the rival leaders. After all I was told of the meeting between Palmerston and Lord John, and the agreement they had come to on all the important points, I was astonished at hearing on Friday evening that everything was again thrown into uncertainty because Lord John would not say what he intended to do. On the important question of who should be Premier he would make no frank statement. He had, indeed, before said that the Queen must decide it, and the man she sent for would naturally be at the head of the Government; but he refused to say whether, supposing Palmerston to be sent for, he would take office with and under him, or even whether he would sit in the House of Commons on or behind the Treasury Bench—in short he would give no clear and positive assurance of his intentions. This is naturally very disgusting to the Whigs, and throws everything into doubt and confusion. The Duke of Bedford is to go down to him and tell him the plain truth, which no one else would venture to do, pointing out to him the effect of his conduct on the sentiments of the Liberal party and on his own position, with regard to which his conduct is indefensible and suicidal. It remains to be seen whether any effect will be produced on his mind, but in any case nothing can look more hopeless than it does, or promise worse for the future. Even though Lord John should consent to act under Palmerston (and nobody expects that it is Lord John for whom the Queen would send), there seems little hope of any cordial or lasting union between them, or of his being satisfied with any position in which he might consent to place himself, for his mind is evidently in a sour and jaundiced state. The majority of the Whig and Liberal party who are come up full of resentment from the elections are certainly desirous of attacking the Government, but there is a considerable number of them who are averse to joining in any vote of want of confidence, or any other move which may turn the Government out without first being assured that another Government can be formed, and that the union is sufficiently complete to promise that such new Government would be strong enough to maintain itself when formed.
June 6th.—As I was at Epsom every day this week, I have heard nothing of what has been going on, except the fact that there is to be a great meeting of the Liberals at Willis's Rooms this afternoon, called by a list of people which includes Palmerston and Lord John and Milner Gibson, whose signature betokens the assent of the Radicals to the object of it, which I conclude to be an agreement as to the attack to be made on the Government to-morrow, and certain explanations as to the intentions and sentiments of the Whig leaders. I see that there are many dissentients from the course that is going to be adopted, many who think this attempt to oust the Government at once neither patriotic nor politic. Without any very decided opinion, or the means of forming one, I am rather inclined to think that it would be better to leave them alone, and to trust to their furnishing good cause for turning them out, as they probably will do. The Government does not appear to be obnoxious to any serious reproach and objection, except about their mismanagement of foreign affairs. But it is very questionable whether another Government might not give us a policy equally or still more mischievous.