London, January 22nd.—For the last three weeks the sayings and doings of the Emperor Napoleon have occupied all thoughts in every part of Europe, and he has wellnigh recovered in this country the confidence and popularity which had been exchanged for distrust, suspicion, and alarm. It would really look as if the sole or at least the main object of his policy was to conciliate English opinion and to ingratiate himself with the present Government; and he certainly has exhibited great courage and above all a boundless confidence in his own power and authority in his own country. There was a time when he paid great court to the Catholic clergy in France, and it was supposed that his motive in retaining the French troops in Rome (which it was known he very much disliked) was his apprehension lest their withdrawal should expose the Pope's person or Government to danger, which the clergy in France would not readily forgive him for doing. When he made peace with Austria he still evinced a desire to uphold the dignity and authority of the Pope, and therefore nobody was the least prepared for the pamphlet of 'The Pope and the Congress.' It fell like a thunderbolt, striking terror into the minds of all the Papal supporters and adherents, and filling with joy all revolted Italy, and with a more sober satisfaction all the Liberals and ultra-Protestants here.
TREATY OF COMMERCE WITH FRANCE.
We had hardly recovered from our amazement at this great change in the foreign policy of France, when we were still more astonished and pleased by the publication of the Emperor's letter to Fould, in which he announced his intention to change the whole commercial policy of France, and to make her a country of Free Trade. In thus confronting at once the Clerical body and the Protectionist interest in France, he has certainly acted with enormous boldness and reliance on his own influence and power, and it will be very interesting to see whether the success of his policy corresponds with its audacity. The Commercial Treaty has been in great measure the work of Cobden, who went over to Paris under the wing of Michel Chevalier and with letters to Cowley, who introduced him to everybody who could be of use to him in his endeavours to forward a Free Trade policy. The scheme seems to have been arranged between the Emperor and Fould without the knowledge or participation of any of the other Ministers. Cobden had no mission, but he reported his progress home, and as an acknowledgement of his exertions he is to be made joint Plenipotentiary with Cowley in signing the Commercial Treaty.
The return of Cavour to power looks as if there was a secret understanding between France and England that the King of Sardinia should be permitted to consummate the annexation of all the revolted provinces to his dominions; for this object, which Palmerston has so much at heart, he would gladly consent to the transference of Savoy to France, which most people think will take place; but everything is still and must be for some time in the greatest uncertainty in North Italy, the only thing apparently certain being that the Dukes will not recover their Duchies, and still less the Pope his Romagna.
January 24th.—To-day Parliament opens, and everything promises a prosperous session for the Government. So little spirit is there in the Opposition, that very few of them are expected to make their appearance, and Disraeli, under the pretext of a family affliction, gives no dinner; but the probable cause of this is not the death of his sister, which happened two months ago, but his own uncertainty as to whom he should invite, and who would be disposed to own political allegiance by accepting his invitation. Such is the disorganised state of that party.
Clarendon called on me yesterday, and told me various things more or less interesting about passing events, about Cobden and the Commercial Treaty. Cobden went over to Paris with letters from Palmerston to Cowley, begging Cowley would give him all the aid he could in carrying out his object of persuading the leading people there to adopt Free Trade principles, saying he went without any mission and as 'a free lance.' Cowley did what he could for him, and he went about his object with great zeal, meanwhile putting himself in correspondence with Gladstone, who eagerly backed him up, but all this time nothing was said to the Cabinet on the subject. At length one day Walewski sent for Cowley, and asked him whether he was to understand that Cobden was an agent of the British Government, and authorised by it to say all he was saying in various quarters. Cowley denied all knowledge of Cobden's proceedings, but wrote a despatch to John Russell stating what had occurred, and at the same time a private letter, saying he did not know whether he would wish such a despatch to be recorded, and therefore to number it and place it in the Foreign Office, or put it in the fire as he thought fit. John Russell accepted the despatch, and at the same time told him he might endorse whatever Cobden did in the matter of commercial engagements.
THE EMPEROR ON FREE TRADE.
Clarendon said that when he was at Paris four years ago for the Congress, the Emperor one day said to him, 'I know you are a great Free Trader, and I suppose you mean to take this opportunity of advancing Free Trade principles here as far as you can.' Clarendon said certainly such was his intention, when the Emperor said he was happy to be able to take the initiative with him on this subject, and that he would tell him that it had just been settled in the Council of State that a great change in their commercial and prohibitive system should be proposed to the Chambers, which it was his intention to carry out as soon as possible. But not long after the Emperor renewed the subject, and told him he found the opposition so strong to his contemplated measures and the difficulties so great, that he had been obliged to abandon them for the present, and as there is no reason to doubt that the elements of opposition will be found as strong now as they were then, it is by no means certain that His Majesty will be able now to do all he wishes and has announced. It has already been stated in the French papers that something is to be done to meet the objection or allay the apprehensions of the French Protectionists, and Clarendon thinks it very doubtful whether the Commercial Treaty, which will confer advantages on France immediately without any reciprocal ones to us for eighteen months to come, will be received with much favour here, especially as the loss to our revenue will require the imposition of fresh taxes to a considerable amount.
We discussed the Italian question, and he said the Emperor is in a constant state of doubt and perplexity, one while inclining to the Congress, and another to leaving affairs to be settled without one. Granville told me last night there appears a chance of the Pope's consenting to enter the Congress with the expectation of being supported there by a majority of the Powers, and deriving considerable benefit from such support. The Emperor Napoleon, too, now shows some signs of drawing closer to Austria again, while Austria is quite determined never to consent to any of the schemes of revolution and annexation which France and England are intent upon carrying out. Apponyi told Clarendon, with tears in his eyes, that they were ruined, and quite unable to take any active part, but that in the way of passive resistance they might still do a great deal, and that they should not only refuse with the greatest perseverance to set their hands to any paper acknowledging the new state of things, but that they should solemnly protest against it on every occasion and in every way in their power. Austria therefore never will consent to the annexation of Central Italy to Piedmont, and if it takes place in spite of her remonstrances and in direct violation of the conditions of Villafranca and Zurich, she will not only refuse her recognition, but proclaim her intention of biding her time, with a view to avail herself of future possible contingencies to redress the wrongs of which she may justly complain. I asked Clarendon if he did not think it possible a mezzo termine might be effected by which France and Austria might again be put d'accord, France saying, 'I would carry out the stipulations of Zurich if I could, but you see it is impossible. Still I will not consent to arrangements obnoxious to you and in direct violation of them, such as the annexations to Piedmont; let us recur to the formation of a Central Italian independent State.' Clarendon said this had been his own idea, and he still thought it was not impossible that such a compromise should be effected. It is hardly possible to doubt that if Cavour succeeds in annexing to Piedmont all the Central Italian States, a very short time will elapse before war will break out again between Sardinia and Austria, and that Austria will have to relinquish her Venetian possessions or fight for their retention.
January 27th.—The session opened with great appearance of quiet and prosperity for the Ministers, which nothing that passed the first night in either House threatened to disturb. Derby made a very good and moderate speech. When he left office the Queen entreated him not to use the power he seemed to have from the nearly balanced state of parties to upset this Government, urging the great objections there were to eternal changes, and she repeated the same thing to him when he was at Windsor on a visit not long ago. Derby expressed his entire concurrence with her, and he promised to act in conformity with her wishes, and he has entirely done so. Nothing could be more temperate and harmless than the few remarks he made on Tuesday night, but leaving himself quite unfettered on every point.