OPPOSITION TO THE COMMERCIAL TREATY.
In the meantime there is apparently a strong feeling of doubt and quasi-hostility getting up against the Commercial Treaty, and it looks as if the English and French Governments would both have great difficulties in the matter. Public opinion here remains suspended till the Treaty is produced, and till we are informed what the immediate sacrifices may be that we shall have to make for it, and what are the prospective advantages we obtain in return. The French Protectionists are more impatient and have begun to pour out their complaints and indignation without waiting to see the obnoxious Convention. Thiers is said to be furious. So far from any Commercial Treaty like this cementing the alliance, and rendering war between the two countries more difficult, it is much more likely to inflame the popular antipathy in France, to make the alliance itself odious, and render the chances of war between the two countries more probable. In maturing his scheme Louis Napoleon has given it all the appearance of a conspiracy, which is in accordance with his character and his tastes. The whole thing was carried on with the most profound secrecy, and the secret was confined to a very few people, viz. the Emperor himself, Fould, Rouher (Minister of Commerce), Michel Chevalier, and Cobden. All the documents were copied by Madame Rouher, and Rouher was so afraid that some guesses might be made if he was known to be consulting books and returns that were preserved in the Library of the Council of State, that he never would look at any of them, and made Chevalier borrow all that he had occasion to refer to. Now the Emperor springs this Treaty upon his reluctant Chambers and the indignant Protectionist interest. His manner of doing the thing, which he thinks is the only way by which it can be done at all, naturally adds to the resentment the measure excites. They feel themselves in a manner taken in. The objections here are of a different kind and on other grounds, but Gladstone kept his design nearly as close as the Emperor did, never having imparted it to the Cabinet till the last moment before Parliament met. I do not know how the Cabinet looked at it, only that they were not unanimous.
THE REFORM BILL OF 1860.
While, however, it seems at least doubtful how the Government will fare when they produce this Treaty, it appears certain that they will get into a scrape with their Reform Bill. I had imagined from all I heard that the Government were certain to bring forward a measure so moderate as to insure the support or at least prevent the opposition of the Conservatives, or certainly of a large proportion of them. Everything rendered this probable. The assurances conveyed to the Government by Walpole, the professions of Disraeli, the apathy of the country, and the total failure of Bright's attempts to get up the steam, all encouraged them to take this course, and the Duke of Bedford told me Lord John was not so tied and bound by his declarations last year that he would not concur in any moderate measure that the Cabinet might frame. A few days ago, however, I asked Clarendon what the Bill would be, and he alarmed me by his reply that 'it would be as bad as possible,' John Russell having insisted upon the franchise being in accordance with his pledges, and upon his consistency being entirely preserved. This meant of course a 6l. franchise, which everybody denounces as full of mischief and danger.
Just now Henry Lennox came to me and told me that all the dissensions and jealousies of the Conservative party and the Carlton Club had been suddenly appeased, and that from being split into little sections and coteries, squabbling among themselves and forming plots to oust Disraeli, and elevate one man or another in his place, they were suddenly reunited as one man in opposition to the Bill that they hear is to be offered to them, and that Disraeli will be higher than ever in their confidence and support. The Government estimate their majority at four, leaving out of calculation the Irish Catholics, who will probably all vote against them on every question, and the Conservatives boast of having 320 men who will cling together with immoveable constancy in opposition to the 6l. clause. That they will be able to carry it under these circumstances seems impossible. Lord John is himself to bring on the Reform Bill. The best thing that could happen (unless they are warned in time and alter their measure) would be that he should be beaten on the 6l. franchise, go out upon it and the rest stay in; but whether they would think themselves bound to stand or fall with him and break up the Government for his sake, I have at present no idea. The Queen would no doubt do all in her power to induce Palmerston to let him go, replace him, and carry on the Government without him. His loss would be a gain in every possible way, and the Government would be strengthened instead of being weakened by his absence, even though he should throw himself into the arms of Bright and join him in a Radical opposition to his former colleagues.
Bath, February 15th.—When I left London a fortnight ago the world was anxiously expecting Gladstone's speech in which he was to put the Commercial Treaty and the Budget before the world. His own confidence and that of most of his colleagues in his success was unbounded, but many inveighed bitterly against the Treaty, and looked forward with great alarm and aversion to the Budget. Clarendon shook his head, Overstone pronounced against the Treaty, the 'Times' thundered against it, and there is little doubt that it was unpopular, and becoming more so every day. Then came Gladstone's unlucky illness, which compelled him to put off his expos�, and made it doubtful whether he would not be physically disabled from doing justice to the subject. His doctor says he ought to have taken two months' rest instead of two days'. However, at the end of his two days' delay he came forth, and consensu omnium achieved one of the greatest triumphs that the House of Commons ever witnessed. Everybody I have heard from admits that it was a magnificent display, not to be surpassed in ability of execution, and that he carried the House of Commons completely with him. I can well believe it, for when I read the report of it the next day (a report I take to have given the speech verbatim) it carried me along with it likewise. For the moment opposition and criticism were silenced, and nothing was heard but the sound of praise and admiration. In a day or two, however, men began to disengage their minds from the bewitching influence of this great oratorical power, to examine calmly the different parts of the wonderful piece of machinery which Gladstone had constructed, and to detect and expose the weak points and objectionable provisions which it contained. I say it, for, as the Speaker writes to me, it must be taken as a whole or rejected as a whole, and he adds the first will be its fate.
MR. GLADSTONE'S BUDGET.
Clarendon, who has all along disapproved of the Treaty, wrote to me that Gladstone's success was complete, and public opinion in his favour. He says: 'I expect that the London feeling will be reflected from the country, so that there will be no danger of rejection, though I think that the more the whole thing is considered, the less popular it will become. The no-provision for the enormous deficit that will exist next year will strike people, as well as the fact that the Budget is made up of expedients for the present year. The non-payment of the Exchequer bonds is to all intents and purposes a loan; the war tax on tea and sugar, the windfall of the Spanish payment, the making the maltsters and hopgrowers pay in advance, &c., are all stopgaps. If anybody proposes it, I shall not be surprised if an additional 1d. Income Tax in place of the war duties was accepted by Gladstone. He has a fervent imagination, which furnishes facts and arguments in support of them; he is an audacious innovator, because he has an insatiable desire for popularity, and in his notions of government he is a far more sincere Republican than Bright, for his ungratified personal vanity makes him wish to subvert the institutions and the classes that stand in the way of his ambition. The two are converging from different points to the same end, and if Gladstone remains in office long enough and is not more opposed by his colleagues than he has been hitherto, we shall see him propose a graduated Income Tax.' These are only objections to the Budget, and speculations (curious ones) as to the character and futurity of Gladstone.
In another letter he says: 'Gladstone made a fair defence of the Treaty, though there are things in it which deserve the severest criticism and will get it, such as tying ourselves down about the exportation of coal (which is a munition of war), letting in French silks free while ours are to pay thirty per cent., and establishing a differential duty of nearly fifty per cent. in favour of light French wines against the stronger wines of Spain and Portugal, for that will be the operation of the Treaty.' Since all this was written there has been a meeting of the Conservative party, and I hear this morning that Derby has decided to take the field with all his forces with a Resolution against the condition about the exportation of coal, and confining himself to that, which will very likely be carried. On the other hand, the publicans and licensed victuallers appear to be in arms against that part of the Budget which more immediately interests them, and are waging a fierce war in the Press by their paper, the 'Morning Advertiser,' so that in spite of his great triumph and all the admiration his eloquence and skill elicited, it is not all sunshine and plain sailing with his measures. Delane writes to me that Gladstone will find it hard work to get his Budget through, that Peel when he brought forward his Budget had a majority of ninety, all of which he required to do it, whereas Palmerston cannot command a majority of nine.