Mr. Banker: Your statement of the condition and forces that are always playing upon every center of credit from the single bank in the country town to the largest and strongest in our financial centers makes it necessary for the welfare of the whole people, that we should develop in the United States an atmosphere of absolute confidence that nothing can shake. Unless we can do this we shall continue to have commercial earthquakes of ever increasing violence and destructiveness.
How to develop, establish and retain a defense of impregnable confidence should be then our purpose, and if we succeed, this must be our great achievement.
Speaking of the matter in a more definite way, we must assume that from the primary form of reserve, which is what we started out with, such a part of our capital in gold as will always prove equal to the average demands upon deposits must be kept constantly available.
We must have what are aptly called secondary reserves, which will meet all ordinary, yes extraordinary, or unusual calls; but, finally we must have such access to an almost incomprehensible store of gold, as to impress and overwhelm the imagination, and place its possible exhaustion beyond human conception.
Mark this, your cash on hand of the reserve order, that is in gold coin, ought under all circumstances, to be ample to care for current requirements, while your credits, subject to call, with other banks, or arrangements for credit, ought to be ample to meet all ordinary, or seasonal, or periodic demands—and your general assets, which most of necessity be your ultimate reserve, must be of such a liquid character that if a panic comes, and the necessity arises, they can be converted into cash, of the reserve order; that is gold coin.
You perceive, of course, that such a condition assumes two things; first, that gold should always be running through the channels of trade in sufficient quantities to touch and characterize the quality of all credits; book credits, as well as note credits; both must always be equal to gold, and commerce must be kept conscious of that fact by the persistent presence of gold.
There must be kept before the business eye, the people's eye, the national eye, such a vast horde of gold concentrated for the purpose as to compel even the most timorous to feel safe, beyond a peradventure. There must be a conviction everywhere that the system cannot break down or fail.
Mr. Manufacturer: Mr. Banker, your position, or statement, is in perfect accord with Bagehot, the great banking economist of England. Here's what he said: "I have tediously insisted that the natural system of banking is that of many banks keeping their own cash reserves, with the penalty of failure before them if they neglect it." In another place he says: "Of course, in such a matter the cardinal rule to be observed is that errors of excess are innocuous, but errors of defect are destructive. Too much reserves only means a small loss of profit, but too small a reserve may mean ruin. Credit may be at once shaken, and if some terrifying accident happens to supervene, there may be a run on the banking department, that may be too much for it, as in 1857 and 1866, and may make it unable to pay its way without assistance, as it was in those years." And again he writes: "Why should a bank keep any reserve? Because it may be called upon to pay certain liabilities at once and in a moment."
Upon the same point I want to support your position by another great English economist, Stanley Jevons. He says: "There is a tendency to frequent severe scarcities of loanable capital, causing sudden variations of the rate of interest, almost unknown thirty years ago. I will therefore in the next chapter offer a few remarks intended to show that this is an evil naturally resulting from the excessive economy of the precious metal which the increasing perfection of our banking system allows to be practiced, but which may be carried too far, and lead to extreme disaster." Again he says: "The vast trade of the country cannot be placed upon a sound basis, until the force of public opinion among bankers imposes upon each member the necessity of holding a cash reserve, bearing a fair proportion to the liabilities incurred. It matters little who holds the reserve, provided it actually does exist in the form of metal, and is not evaporated away, by being placed at par, or deposited with other banks which make free use of it. In the absence of some common action among bankers, it is certain that the sensitiveness of the money market will increase, and it is probable that commercial crises will from time to time recur, even exceeding in their violence and disastrous consequences those whose history we know too well."
The want of the conservation of proper gold reserves is what has led to the weakness of the German situation today and compels them to take steps to strengthen the reserves of the individual banks in accordance with the finding of the commission appointed to revise the banking laws of Germany. The individual banks of England have also been increasing their cash reserves for several years past, recognizing the force of what Jevons wrote several years ago.