In the following period the same rising movement from $254,000,000 to $344,000,000 was reproduced in 1848. The panic in Europe burst forth in 1847; it resounded very slightly in the United States in 1848, as its subsequent liquidation in 1849 indicates, which only reduced the local discounts to $332,000,000.
A new period of prosperity followed the preceding events; the growing movement re-appeared, and from $332,000,000 carried the amount of the discounts to $684,000,000 between 1849 and 1857. The panic broke out simultaneously throughout the whole world; but notwithstanding the wrecks it caused, such was the saving already, so healthy was the general situation of business, that, after having thrown out a little scum, the current of affairs resumed its course until 1861, and discounts had already reached the amount of $696,000,000. This amount is greater than that we have noted in 1857, but at that time (whilst the movement continued in Europe up to 1864), despite the shock it received by the declaration of war here, there was complete stoppage until the end of the struggle; we have here come across a political panic, not a business one. Peace re-established, the movement resumed its course under new conditions and with a reorganization of the banks under the name of "National Banks." A change was due, but, as everything was made ready, it was speedy. The first balance sheet of the National Banks dates from 1864. The amount of discounts had already exceeded the sum of $100,000,000 in 1865, and grew to $500,000,000 in 1866. Once started the movement took its own course:
1865 …… $166,000,000 1870 …… $725,000,000 1866 ……. 500,000,000 1871 ……. 831,000,000 1867 ……. 609,000,000 1872 ……. 885,000,000 1868 ……. 657,000,000 1873 ……. 944,000,000 1869 ……. 686,000,000
The yearly progression was interrupted as in Europe, and the explosion occurred at the same time. The rise in prices stopped, and incipient liquidation became apparent at the end of the year, and reduced the amount of paper on hand to $846,000,000, but, instead of lasting, as in Europe, a movement of revival, analogous to that which had followed the panic of 1864 in England, occurred. The amount of discounts rose from $856,000,000 to $984,000,000 in 1875, and then, and then only, the real retrograde movement showed itself as in Europe, and reduced the amount of the discounts to $814,000,000 in 1879, simultaneously with the movement in France and in England, when prices had reached the lowest quotations, and when a resumption of business was about to occur. In a word, affairs resumed their course; from the end of the year the amount of paper discounted rose to $933,000,000, and the steady advance as set forth in table No. 3 continued each year, until it reached $1,300,000,000 in 1884. The panic had burst forth in Europe in 1882, and the agitation, so lively was its impulse, lasted during eighteen months; but, as we have stated, the rise in prices ceased in 1882.
Starting from this time, a reaction appeared. The paper on hand lowered to $1,200,000,000 in 1885. This liquidation was scarcely noticeable, because we cover the whole Union, and there is always an upward movement in the new portions of it which have not yet taken part in business movements. If we note what occurred in the Associated Banks of New York, the very place where the greatest amount of business is carried on, the depression of the amount of paper on hand is most noticeable after the inflation observed at the height of the panic, while the decrease that we point out showed itself more slowly with the slackening of business. Thus, in the last period, the greatest amount of paper appears on hand—at the close of 1881, $350,000,000, and the minimum in December, 1884, the very year the panic had burst forth, and when, during the first months, the sum of $351,000,000 reappeared once more; except for a million, exactly the same amount there was in 1881.
This maximum amount was only an accident, under the influence of pressing needs at the time of the difficulty, for since 1881 the yearly reduction of the maximum and minimum amounts ensued. This tendency had occurred suddenly, and disappeared likewise; the resumption dating from 1885, a year sooner than in Europe.
The discounts of the New York Banks, which had been reduced to $287,000,000, rose immediately upon the opening of the new period of prosperity, and a growing activity carried them to $408,000,000 in 1889; after a few more fortunate years we come to the end of the period of prosperity and high prices.
We gather the following about discounts from the balance sheets of the Associated Banks of New York. If we cast our eyes over the balance sheets of the National Banks of the Union, we must note a falling off of $100,000,000 in the paper discounted, that is, from $1,300,000,000 to $1,200,000,000 (1884-1885). After this short period of stoppage, clearly indicating the necessity for liquidation, discounts resumed their steady expansion, and rose to $1,470,000,000 in 1886, to $1,587,000,000 in 1887, and finally to $1,684,000,000 in 1888, when we were in the midst of a period of development and consequently of high prices and of prosperity; and the same is true in France and England.
The study of a single section of the balance sheets, that of discounts and loans, has allowed us to follow the periods of prosperity, of panic, and of liquidation. When we next consider the other sections, we find the confirmation of our anticipations. Among these sections, in the order of importance, we notice first, public deposits in the form of running accounts; they constitute the reverse of the loans and discounts, whose total is immediately credited to the banks' clients, and the increase of paper on hand also follows. From 1865 to 1873 the steady increase was uninterrupted, viz., from $183,000,000 to $656,000,000; the maximum amount shows itself in the first quarter of 1873, eight months before the maximum of discounts and loans; in 1888 they ran down to $622,000,000; there is, say, a difference of $300,000,000 between the two totals, and this difference is the same, we observe, as that between the highest and the lowest of the two sections, as we notice it in the same year, during the liquidation of the panic of 1873. [Footnote: See table of balance sheets of the Banks of the United States.]
In the last period the progression is the same; from $598,000,000 the amount of deposits advanced to $1,350,000,000, whilst discounts and loans reached $1,684,000,000; that is to say, there was still a difference of $334,000,000. The relationship of the two sections was much more marked than in France and in England, where the amounts carried in accounts current vary more.