Their army is drawn up in hostile array; it is each day becoming more numerous and more perfectly prepared. Its generals are the same who have led it to constant victory; its main body is the veterans of three campaigns. The Chinese are persuaded, and it is impossible to say not justly persuaded, of the righteousness of their cause. The Russians can have no equal confidence either in their strength, or in their moral position. They are not exactly championing a bad cause, or a lost one, but, in comparison to the Chinese, they have no legal position. It remains to be seen whether by force of arms, or by diplomatic superiority, they can make up for the flaw in their tenure of Kuldja. Farther on, in the vista of the events yet to come, there looms the prospect of an Anglo-Chinese alliance, that must be most beneficial to the peoples of Asia generally. But, before it will be possible for Englishmen to count upon the presence of the Chinese as a favourable "factor in the Central Asian question," our relations with China must be placed upon a firmer and a more friendly basis than any which has yet existed. We have it in our power to do this, and the ever-widening breach between Russia and China simplifies our task in no slight degree. The day will come when Russia will discover that the Kuldja question was no trivial matter at all, and that to it can be traced many important events in Central Asia. England may also recognize in it one of the most useful circumstances that have ever operated in her favour in her long rivalry with Russia. At the very crisis of our border history, when we are on the eve of dealing out well merited chastisement to an Ameer of Cabul, Russia finds herself weakened by being compelled to discuss a question with China, when her attention is required elsewhere. She will not yield what the Chinese demand, yet she dare not refuse; and the latter will simply bide their time until she is hampered elsewhere. It is no rash prophecy to say that China will be reinstalled, either by peaceful means or by force, in Kuldja before the close of next year, probably long before. An alliance between any two of the three great Asiatic Powers must then be conclusive in all Central Asian matters, and, before that alliance, the third will have the prudence to submit. It behoves us to learn our lesson, when that day comes, thoroughly and in good time.
APPENDIX.
THE POSITION OF LOB-NOR.
Lake Lob-Nor is placed in the map accompanying this volume in accordance with the explorations of Colonel Prjevalsky in 1876–77; the result of which was published in Dr. Petermann's Mittheilungen as an extra number during the spring of the present year. The accuracy of the gallant explorer in identifying Lob-Nor with his lake of Kara Koshun had not been challenged when this map was drawn, and when the following good reasons for doubting its accuracy were published on the 14th of September, it was too late to make the necessary alteration.
The quotation of Baron Ferdinand von Richthofen's strictures on Colonel Prjevalsky's lakes is taken from the Athenæum of the 14th of September, 1878:—
"It would appear that the Russian traveller Prejevalsky, in his last remarkable journey in the heart of Central Asia, did not explore Lob-Nor at all, as he claims to have done. Baron Ferdinand von Richthofen, one of the first comparative geographers of the day, has examined the account of the journey, more especially by the light of Chinese literature, and proves, almost incontestably to our thinking, that the true Lob-Nor must lie somewhere north-east of the so-called Kara Kotchun Lake discovered by Prejevalsky, and that, in all probability, it is fed by an eastern arm of the Tarim river. This, at all events, would account for the remarkable diminution in bulk undergone by the waters of that stream as they proceed southward, which could not but strike an attentive reader of the Russian explorer's narrative. We have not space to reproduce all the arguments which Von Richthofen adduces, but the more important are these:—Prejevalsky's lake was fresh, whereas Lob-Nor has been called The Salt Lake, par excellence, in all ages; Shaw, Forsyth, and other authorities, report that the name Lob-Nor was known in those regions, whereas Prejevalsky found no such name applied to his lake; the Chinese maps, of the accuracy of which Von Richthofen has had repeated proofs, represent Lob-Nor as lying more to the north-east, and call two lakes lying nearly in the position of those discovered by Prejevalsky, Khasomo, Khas being the Mongolian for jade, a famous product of Khotan of which mediæval traders from China went in quest, passing by these very lakes en route. Another important argument is, as we have mentioned, based on the bulk of water discharged by the Tarim at its mouth. Von Richthofen's theory presupposes that the Tarim River has altered its course, and that the main rush of water is now south-east instead of due east as formerly. The whole question is well worthy of further investigation, and it is possible that Prejevalsky, whom a recent telegram from St. Petersburg reports about to return to Central Asia, may be enabled to elucidate it. He will return to Zaissan, the Russian frontier post, and thence endeavour to make his way into Tibet by way of Barkul and Hami.
"It is, however, certain that he will encounter great, if not insuperable, obstruction, for we learn from private advices from India, that the ill-advised publication in the Chefoo Convention of the then proposed mission to Tibet has resulted in the issue of the most stringent orders to the Tibetan officials at all the various routes and passes to allow no European traveller to enter into the country on any pretext whatever."
Having stated the view of Baron Ferdinand von Richthofen, which is endorsed by the high authority of the Athenæeum, and which bears, moreover, conviction upon its face, it is but fair to give the vital portion of Colonel Prjevalsky's own description. The Geographical Magazine, for May, 1878 Contains in extenso the report, and the sentences here quoted are from that translation.