Rochecotte, January 7, 1841.—Yesterday I had a letter from Madame de Lieven, in which the main points are as follows: "Things in general seem to me to be going better, though security is not absolutely certain. Have I written to you since the news from St. Petersburg arrived? Do not believe the exaggerations of certain newspapers on the point, but believe what is true, that the tone of the last communications is quite proper; that Russia is sincerely anxious to see France return to the concert of Europe, and is hoping that the present Ministry will remain in office. This demonstration, which experts consider to be more friendly than any that has been made at St. Petersburg, has caused much pleasure here and some anxiety to the English. There is no further development at present. At London attempts are being made to find a point of junction with France which is everywhere desired. Can you think of one? Jerusalem. Jerusalem delivered from the yoke of the infidels! Jerusalem, a Christian town, open to all Christian worship; a free town guaranteed as such by Christianity! What do you think of this? I should much like to see it. Is it likely that so simple an idea and so easy to perform could be rejected, for if ever the idea is carried out, it could be to-day. Lord Melbourne will probably laugh at it and Lord Palmerston too.
"The opening of Parliament has caused much discussion. It is said that Peel and the Radicals will easily overthrow the Ministry, but I see no reason for it at this moment. Time will show.
"The Academy meeting caused a twenty-four hours' sensation. M. Molé enjoyed a great triumph. I was unable to hear his speech and it reads to me a trifle forced; such is also the impression of many people, and it has even been called somewhat insignificant. About M. Dupin's speech I have nothing to say. From the point of propriety it speaks for itself, but it amused me. My taste, however, is not particularly good.
"I hope you will make no mistake about the conclusion of the Egyptian question. Whatever happens, Mehemet Ali will preserve the pashalik as hereditary in his family; but what a conflict of opinions among the sailors, the Ambassador and the Minister of Foreign Affairs!
"I am told, my dear Duchesse, that the King of Prussia is a little strange in his conduct, that the fact is remarked among his people, that his popularity is rapidly declining, and that the old King is more regretted every day."
Rochecotte, January 12, 1841.—M. de Salvandy writes as follows: "I think that the Powers are seriously looking for an opportunity and an excuse to bring us back to the concert of Europe. The declarations of Prince Metternich; the Russian despatch with its unusual expressions concerning the wisdom of the King and his services to Europe, the desire to come to an understanding with his Government; and the sentiments, too, of Prussia, which are more French and less Russian than ever, are providing food for reflection in England. Lord Palmerston is finding his course more difficult than he expected. The Duke of Wellington and Sir Robert Peel will propose amendments; it is said that these amendments will be in favour of France and will pass, and the Tories seem certain on the point. I cannot believe it. It is impossible to think that the real successes of Palmerston throughout the Asiatic continent from St. Jean d'Acre as far as China, should mark the date and the reason of his fall. In any case it is certain that England, both as a government and as a nation, is concerned with the question of our isolation and of our liberty of action.
"Here the question of fortifications takes precedence of everything else. It has been simplified by M. Thiers' resolution to make no proposal without the approval of the Government. He abandons or modifies his amendments according to the desires of the Cabinet and so the struggle will not be in that direction. Victory or failure will be shared by MM. Thiers and Guizot. However, by a strange change of opinion M. Guizot seems to be threatened at the outset of this proposed plan. MM. de Lamartine, Passy and Dufaure, forty votes on the Left, together with Tracy and Garnier-Pagès, in short, fifty votes at least will be against the proposal. People are also asking whether Marshal Soult is not against the idea. His position seems somewhat obscure. People wonder whether the objections which he offered to the detached forts in 1833, to the compromise and the continuous circuit walls proposed in 1840, are not more prominent in his mind than any other interest; whether he does not expect to advance his views by rejecting half the law which might easily end in the overthrow of the whole, and also of the oratorical party in the Cabinet, bound as they are to support their project in its entirety. People are also wondering whether this last result is not the object which the parliamentary strategy of the Marshal has in view. The Prince Royal, whom I saw yesterday, seems uneasy on the point. But what then can be the idea in the background? Can it be a combination of Passy and Dufaure, with Passy as the Minister of Foreign Affairs? This would be to restore the Ministry of May 2, which would not act upon the first occasion and will be no more possible now that it is dead. A combination of Soult and Molé is very unlikely; and finally, will M. Molé come forth from his ruins? All this is very obscure. M. Molé is very touchy. There are too many people who would regard adherence as an honourable confession of error. In any case it is certain that M. Guizot's prospects are impaired and that even at the Tuileries the chances of his overthrow are regarded as more probable than they would formerly have been. It is noticed that he makes no mention of London. Can he have reached the point when he begins to doubt of success, though he never doubted it before, and to consider the possibilities of a retreat?
"Rambuteau yesterday held a house-warming in his new rooms in the Hotel de Ville. They are magnificent and are characterised by splendour, luxury and good taste: the paintings, the ornaments and the furniture are admirable; it is pleasant to see an object worthy of praise and since we are now under the electoral régime I am glad to see that it can produce something at least that is earmarked by good taste and a certain grandeur. It is curious to see the town of Paris treat its Prefect in this way. Let us hope that this will pave the way for the kings.
"M. Pasquier has been greatly disappointed that he has not been elected to the Academy in place of M. Pastoret. He had great hopes, but the candidature of M. de Sainte Aulaire was too well supported. He is keeping himself for the place held by the Bishop of Hermopolis.[ [1] Is it not remarkable, Madame, that at his age a man should think of inheriting anything, and should still have ambition, holding the rank he does?"
Rochecotte, January 18, 1841.—Madame de Lieven writes from Paris as follows the day before yesterday: "Madame de Nesselrode is full of the great men of France, and has certainly come to Paris chiefly to see them. M. Eynard of Geneva has them on show; he invites Madame de Nesselrode to dinner with each of them alternately. I do not think he has missed one so far, except Garnier-Pagès.