"The Queen of England's speech is awaited here with some curiosity. People are wondering whether she will say anything suitable in view of the situation here. There is no inclination in Paris to diverge from the line of conduct that has been decided upon; an armed peace, quiet expectation and isolation, threatening no one, neither disturbed nor disturbing. Our neighbours, however, are anxious, and would like to see this state of suspense at an end. Lord Palmerston's obstinacy drives them to despair, for it is but too true that he is the real governor of Europe. Some means of forming a connection for France must somehow be found, and an intermediary has not yet been discovered. It is certain that the Pasha's position will be made hereditary.
"France has made peace with Buenos Aires, and Rosas, the tyrant of this republic, has been appointed ambassador here and will arrive in the spring. England will arrange the difference between Spain and Portugal.
"Conversation is concerned with nothing but fortifications; it is not quite clear whether the Chamber is in favour of them. The King on the one hand and M. Thiers on the other, are taking infinite trouble over the question. The Ministry will support the proposals but will not die of grief if they fail to pass.
"M. de Barante has been ordered to remain at St. Petersburg; some inclination to coquetry has been obvious in that quarter, but time alone will show whether any definite result will follow. M. de Lamartine had an audience of the King which lasted two hours and a half and is said to have been much impressed. He talks a great deal about it. The question of diplomatic changes will not arise until the matter of the fortifications has been settled."
I have the following news from Madame Mollien: "There is every readiness to support the law concerning the fortifications in the Tuileries, but considerable reluctance in the Chamber. The château is greatly obliged to M. Thiers for joining the general opinion in his report; he is anxious to reassure the Chamber as to his position. It is said that he is greatly wearied by his partisans of the Left and has had a lively scene with Odilon Barrot which reached the point of insults and in which he termed the journalists of the party "ruffians." The fact is that if this law does not pass, the thirty millions already expended, the works that have been begun, the private property that has been bought up, destroyed and ruined and the devastation of the Bois de Boulogne, would place him in a terrible position; and so he is as gentle as a lamb and sends his wife to the Tuileries. The Ministry would be content with what would cause him embarrassment; the château, on the other hand, is making common cause with him; thus the position is very complex. The Duc d'Orléans is in a bad temper: the recall of Marshal Valée which was issued in the course of two hours without any previous notice to himself, has greatly wounded his feelings; he does not like the idea of the Marshal's return because he is one of his personal enemies and he fears for the safety of Africa in the hands of Bugeaud. However, he is retiring somewhat more into the background in adherence to the wishes of the King, who is growing anxious about his successor, as Louis XIV. was about the Grand Dauphin. All our princes live like the Infantas of Spain, in loneliness and obscurity. The Pavilion Marsan is nothing more than a wearisome convent; on the ground floor there is very little vivacity and equally little on the first floor. The King retains his imperial confidence in his star. He thinks less of M. Guizot than he did some time ago, and does not so much dread a change of Ministry."
Rochecotte, January 17, 1841.—The Duc de Noailles who came here yesterday, read this morning in the drawing-room half of the article which he has written upon Jansenism, which is to be inserted in the work he is preparing upon Madame de Maintenon.[ [2] This part of the book is written cleverly and clearly; at the same time I can criticise it for an excessive partiality to the Jansenists and a failure to observe a proper moderation of tone.
Rochecotte, February 1, 1841.—Yesterday I received this bulletin from M. de Salvandy: "Our Ministry is the feeblest, the most diminished and the most elusive that ever was seen. I do not know, Madame, whether I have told you what I have often told them, that there is only one danger for them; not the danger of supporting views which might be defeated, but of having no opinion at all, or even worse, of having two opinions. They have run straight upon the rocks with sublime carelessness, in consequence of Guizot's speeches and with utter foolishness in consequence of Marshal Soult's speech, while the general attitude and language drive them along most miserably. The truth is that as a matter of principle they brought forward their proposed law concerning the fortifications in defiance of the Marshal's opinion and opposed their military expert because they thought that public opinion was on their side. Since that time the position assumed by M. Thiers as a supporter of the bill has kept them awake and though they agreed with him in committee they were attempting to secure some means of checking him when he was with us in the Chamber. Schneider's amendment has been proposed with their support in opposition to M. Thiers and in agreement with the Marshal against M. Guizot, with the support of another combination which is more or less public property. Thus M. Guizot has suddenly revised his opinion and after asking us to pass the law in his great speech with a significant phrase, he went round to the members three days ago and solemnly told us that he was opposed to it. The great success of M. Dufaure has again produced a change in these views, as people fear that the real strength of the opposition may lie in that quarter. Yesterday evening Thiers demanded that they should explain themselves. They asked for a night to think over the matter, but reflection will tell them nothing that can make such conduct worthy or politic. No question was ever so badly managed. They have succeeded in securing the protectorate of M. Thiers, in exasperating him by their obvious treachery and in separating MM. Passy and Dufaure, while also wounding the feelings of the Conservative party, the majority of which is ready to reject the great bulwark of M. Thiers. In any case, they are defeated, for they have conspired against all in turn. What will be the result of all this? Great discredit and deep divisions, if nothing else. I am going to the Chamber where I will try and write a postscript to describe the tone of the Cabinet and the vote of the Assembly, but I expect storms, and as I am acting as President in place of M. Sauzet, I must keep my hand upon the bag of Aeolus."
"Postscript from the Chamber.—The Marshal has made a speech of coarse and obvious duplicity which is setting the Chamber on fire. I have only time to send you my kind regards with this letter."
Rochecotte, February 2, 1841.—Yesterday's letters say nothing; the newspapers announce that Schneider's amendment has been rejected and that the forts and the continuous circuit wall will probably be adopted, notwithstanding the most inconceivable speech from Marshal Soult which was counterbalanced by the really clever speech of M. Guizot.
Rochecotte, February 4, 1841.—It was very cold yesterday but quite clear and I went for a walk with my son-in-law in the woods where there is always shelter in spite of the absence of leaves. To-day it is snowing as if we were in Siberia. Last night the thermometer fell more than ten degrees. Winter has indeed begun again.