Berlin, January 31, 1850.—Yesterday there was a rumour that the King would come to the town on Sunday and take the oath to the Constitution of 1850 in the great white room of the council where the Diet of 1847 sat. There will be stands for the spectators. I certainly shall not swell the number of the curious.
Berlin, February 2, 1850.—If my uncle had lived he would have attained his ninety-sixth year to-day. God showed him great mercy in taking him away before the beginning of this new phase of revolution, so profound, so destructive, and so final; a revolution which at his death had lasted fifty years, according to him. I think that we can now see the end of it, so near are we to the bottom of the abyss, but I doubt if we shall have time to rise again to the upper air. The newspapers yesterday mentioned February 6 as the day fixed for the King to take his oath.
Berlin, February 4, 1850.—A reliable informant who has arrived from Frohsdorf says: "There is at Frohsdorf a sincere desire for reconciliation and reunion, but not in France. The old Conservative party, led by M. Guizot, are asking for union, and would obtain it, were it not for the obstinacy of the pure Orléanists, who are represented by the members of the former Opposition. They include some very influential men in their ranks, among others the Duc de Broglie. Recently, in a meeting of journalists, M. de Rémusat spoke very strongly against the coalition, basing his arguments not upon any dynastic dislike, but upon the unpopularity of the nobles and the priests, who made legitimacy, according to him, hateful and deadly. This is a fatal attitude to adopt. The divisions which are rising deprive the Orléanist party of all strength, and every one seems to be playing the game of Louis Bonaparte, or, what is worse, that of the Red Socialists." Another letter, also from a very reliable source, which I received yesterday from Paris, dated January 31, says: "The French Government is much more reasonable than I had expected with reference to the communication which it has recently received concerning the Swiss affair.[ [219] The matter will be decided ad referendum. Probably no final attitude will be adopted on this point, but no support whatever will be given to Switzerland, from whence the wind of Socialism blows over France, and also upon Germany and Italy. Finally, no engagement will be made with England, a point of primary importance. In the Assembly, the side of the Montagne is about to create a stir; possibly there will be an armed demonstration at Lyons under the influence of the Socialists, who are there numerous; no apprehension in consequence is felt here, and perhaps even no resentment will be shown. At London they will be furious. Ellice, as he left here yesterday, said that Lord Palmerston was going to do all the mischief he could. Ellice, Whig as he is, seemed very uneasy on account of the bad disposition of his friend of Downing Street."
As I have thus begun to repeat political gossip, I may also say that a prompt resumption of hostilities over the Danish affair is expected. The people of Schleswig are allowed to arm themselves and make preparations, and before long there will be a general rising which may have serious consequences. Negotiations do not advance. The haughty language of Radowitz upon questions affecting Germany daily adds fuel to the fire, and so embitters the relations between the Courts of Vienna and Berlin that one has more reason to expect war in the near future than the continuation of peace, although a conflict between the two great German Powers would be utter madness in the eyes of the most far-sighted. The Emperor Nicholas has recently said that he thought an almost universal war in Europe was inevitable next spring. It is said that Austria proposes to promulgate a new tariff law, so widely framed as to produce great political advantages to itself, which will be a crushing blow to Erfurt and will give Lord Palmerston an epileptic fit.
Berlin, February 7, 1850.—Yesterday was a remarkable day in the annals of Prussia; the King took the oath to the new Constitution. There were no stands, or spectators, or court officials present, and no princes or princesses. The King is said to have been greatly moved, and to have delivered a very touching speech which he had not communicated to his Ministers. He did not regard himself as a constitutional monarch until he had taken the oath, and the speech was the last echo of the old régime. The King and some of the Princes dined with the gentlemen of the Chamber and certain well-worn toasts were given. All the Polish deputies have resigned in order to avoid taking the oath; Count Hochberg-Fürstentein-Pless, a rich Silesian lord, has done the same. Twenty-six other Deputies stayed away under pretext of illness. And such has been the day and the deed which is to lay the cornerstone of the new edifice.
Berlin, February 12, 1850.—Herr von Meyendorff had a letter yesterday from Madame de Lieven. She says that the scene on the 4th at Paris during the removal of the trees of liberty,[ [220] a foolish act of provocation on the part of the police, was enough to bring about a revolt, armed intervention and the introduction of the Empire, of which the Elysée continually dreams, though Changarnier seems to have pronounced against it.
I hear that Herr von Bernstorff, who was puffed up with Prussian haughtiness two months ago, has changed his tone; that the despatches which he writes from Vienna are all inspired by great fear of war, and beg people here to avoid it at any cost. Herr von Schleinitz is disgusted, and is impatiently awaiting an opportunity to ask for the post at Vienna in exchange for the Ministry to which Bernstorff will probably be called. Radowitz had promised Schönhals and Kübeck, the Austrian plenipotentiaries at Frankfort, to sign, in company with them, the decree referring to Mecklenburg. However, he left Frankfort without performing this promise, and attempted to excuse himself upon different pretexts. Schönhals then sent him word that if he did not sign within three days he himself and Kübeck would leave Frankfort, and that the last bond would be broken. Radowitz then hastily left Erfurt to give the required signature; such, at least, is the story that I heard yesterday.
Berlin, February 13, 1850.—Yesterday the King presented to the Second Chamber a law authorising the borrowing of eighteen millions of thalers for military preparations. The Chamber considered the matter and appointed a commission. There is doubt that this authorisation will be obtained. The First Chamber also made its nominations for Erfurt yesterday; the choice fell upon the democrats. Herr von Meyendorff has no doubt that his Sovereign will regard Lord Palmerston's recent action as a further piece of impertinence, when he accepted the intervention of France in the affair with Greece[ [221] and ignored the offers of Russia. England is asking for a new armistice between Denmark and Prussia, and as the armistice now in force was largely disregarded by Prussia, who has decidedly encouraged and supported the insurrection, the Danes are not inclined to fall into a new trap. Prussia has not only failed to recall General von Bonin, but actually lent him to the insurgent government of Schleswig-Holstein, where he publicly wore his Prussian uniform. The Danish envoys here can get no reply from the Government; Herr von Usedom will not see them and negotiates only with their adversaries.
Berlin, February 14, 1850.—I admit that every Government has its difficulties, and that the number and diversity of the complications should be guarantees against violent means of settling them. In a word, I agree that if war should break out it will be the most irrefutable symptom of madness upon one side, of weakness upon the other, and of bewilderment in general; but unfortunately these aberrations are contagious and make such progress before my eyes that any one who, like myself, can observe all the inventions of bad faith and haughtiness, speedily grows anxious for the future. If we can get through April and May without the sound of the cannon I think that peace might last between the great powers, at any rate for a year or two; this would give people time to breathe, to turn round and to get their affairs in order; but I am sadly afraid that between this date and May 15 at the latest we shall once more be in the midst of a conflagration. My own opinion is that the latter part of the month of April will definitely settle the possibility of war or peace. At the present everything points to a general conflagration in the near future. Lord Palmerston is doing his best to promote it, and M. de Persigny, with his eyes upon the right bank of the Rhine, is also working vigorously. Here, with marvellous stupidity, people run into every snare and take a delight in alienating their natural allies.
Berlin, February 23, 1850.—I spent the evening with the Meyendorffs, the house where the most authentic news is oftenest to be obtained. Yesterday's news was more peaceful. Two incidents serve to calm in some degree the warlike ideas in progress here: in the first place an individual has returned who has been sent to inquire into the military preparations in Bohemia, in the existence of which there was general disbelief. His report has fully confirmed the rumours. Then M. de Persigny has made an inconceivable blunder. Feeling hurt because overtures were made directly to Paris through Hatzfeldt on the Swiss question, he took umbrage and picked a quarrel with Count Brandenburg a few days ago. He said that France would not permit the employment of coercive measures against Switzerland, and that an opportunity of crossing the Rhine with two hundred thousand Frenchmen and of fighting in Germany would be all to the advantage of the President. In short, he showed his teeth so clearly as to give rise to subsequent reflections which might have been made a little earlier. Whether these reflections will be sufficiently strong to induce a more prudent attitude I cannot say. Persigny is completely done for: he came here with proposals of peace and will probably go with the threat of which I have spoken; his policy shows neither intention nor consistency. The newspapers represent French domestic affairs as growing worse day by day, and the attitude of her representative here is therefore more inexplicable.