Berlin, February 24, 1850.—To-day is a serious and very tragical date: it marks the downfall of what was called modern society, and very falsely called civilised society, as experience has shown.
A letter from Madame de Lieven received here yesterday predicts further catastrophes in France in the near future; the result in her opinion will be a temporary military dictatorship in the hands of Changarnier.
The King of Hanover has written a letter which I have seen. He says that he has spent some very disagreeable days and that he had a crow to pick with his Ministers, and had much trouble in converting them to his opinion. However, he has succeeded and has broken the last tie of connection with Berlin to begin closer relations with Vienna.
Sagan, February 26, 1850.—I arrived here yesterday afternoon. In the train I met Herr von Benningsen, the Hanoverian Minister of Foreign Affairs, who was going to Vienna for forty-eight hours to gain information, and was then to return at full speed to his Sovereign's side. This visit will doubtless cause much displeasure at Berlin.[ [222]
Sagan, February 28, 1850.—Count Stirum passed here yesterday on his way from Berlin, and told me that the Electorate of Hesse had definitely and officially broken with Prussia. I hear that the King of Hanover has officially announced to the Prussian Government his secession from the Prussian Bund, but that he has been obliged to yield to his Ministers, who absolutely decline any alliance with Austria, because Austria is in favour of a Single Chamber, while the Hanoverian Ministers want two. I suppose that Herr von Benningsen went to Vienna to make all these explanations. The poor King of Hanover is therefore completely isolated.
Sagan, March 1, 1850.—We are entering upon a month that has been notorious and fatal in the annals both of ancient and modern history. Heaven alone knows what kind of Ides it has in store for us at this point of the half-century. Dates and anniversaries inspire terror, and I feel that we are standing upon ground that is undermined.
Sagan, March 6, 1850.—Yesterday I had some letters from Paris. On the 2nd of this month Paris was in much perplexity concerning the approach of the elections, and news from the provinces caused some anxiety; the Red Party was rising once more. Social pleasure and the follies of dress are not checked in consequence, and are, indeed, carried to an appalling degree. The Grand Duchess Stephanie has been received by the President with the greatest honour; he gave her an establishment apart from his own, in order that her movements might be quite free, and summoned the Diplomatic Body in uniform to be introduced to her. She received the introductions seated in a chair of state, which was a strange sight at the house of the President of the Republic, and provoked some caustic remarks. She is to spend a month at the Elysée, and will then live with her daughter, Lady Douglas, who will arrive at Paris in a few weeks. As the Grand Duchess was ready to receive people of every shade of opinion while she was at Baden, many people who do not visit the President have asked permisssion to call.
Sagan, March 7, 1850.—Letters truly alarming have reached me from Paris. Those who see everything in a favourable light flatter themselves that there will be a change in the English Cabinet, and that this will produce an immediate effect at the Elysée, where Lord Normanby's influence is more powerful than ever on questions of domestic as well as foreign policy. His advice is far from excellent, and is usually given in the evening at the house of the President's mistress, amid the petty amusements which fill the Presidential hours of leisure. On the Swiss question Lord Palmerston will again direct the President's action; his instincts are warlike, whereas those of his Ministers are pacific; but the Ministers have no authority over Prince Louis or over the Assembly, which distrusts them and distrusts the President yet more. The President's attitude, again, upon the Greek question is even more Palmerstonian than upon the Swiss question; in a word, every problem which arises in Europe, whether involving a conflict or mere rivalry, will be treated with inconsistency and certainly concluded in confusion. France is also greatly distracted. I am told that the President has definitely decided to grasp the first opportunity of breaking with the Assembly and of crushing it. In short, his 18th of Brumaire and his Imperial cloak have been prepared; he is waiting his opportunity, champing the bit meanwhile. Probably his struggle against the Reds will give him an opening, and he believes that the public danger will secure him the public support. All eyes are turned upon Changarnier, who is the great puzzle of the moment; no one can divine his intentions, and he maintains so impenetrable a reserve as to lead observers to infer that he thinks himself master of the situation; there is, in fact, no doubt that he will check the coup d'état, but in the excitement of civil war some popular movement might be begun which would sweep away even Changarnier himself. Everything will thus depend upon the extent of this struggle and of popular excitement. Will the Reds fight? People seem inclined to think that they will, and the outbreak is even expected this month, while the news from the provinces is most serious. The provinces threaten to overthrow Paris, and to deprive her of the long power of initiative which she has exercised upon politics and revolutions. It is certain that the President is not the man to meet this decisive crisis; for the last six months he has sunk in the opinion of all reasonable people; he is surrounded by advisers of the worst possible colour, imbued with absurd and dangerous ideas. But in spite of all this and even more, the conclusion seems inevitable that there is no one at present to take his place, and that he must be endured as he is. Obviously France could only be saved by a military dictator who would overthrow universal suffrage, the Press, the jury, the National Guard—in short, everything that poisons France and infects Europe with its contagious miasma. If the Comte de Chambord or the Comte de Paris were to return to France to-morrow, I doubt if they could do what is necessary; such action seems only within the competence of an exceptional and irregular power. Hence the wish for a military dictatorship with full power, which, when the present crisis is over, would return the regular power to the hands of a Government sanctioned by tradition. But is this the view of God's providence, or is the old world to fall asunder in blood? Will ferocious hordes quarrel over our remains? Who can say?
Sagan, March 11, 1850.—I hear from Berlin that M. de Persigny thinks that he has done an excellent stroke of business by inveighing against Prussia before the Austrian Minister, to whom he said that two thousand Frenchmen would soon make an end of the propensities of Neuchâtel. Thereupon Prokesch, who is a somewhat rough and violent character, turned white with rage, and trembling with fury, told the little favourite that he would endure no such language at his own house, and that in spite of the coolness between the Courts of Vienna and Berlin, he would assure M. de Persigny that when the first French soldier had crossed the Rhine in hostility to Prussia, the whole of the Austrian forces would come and help their old ally to stem the revolutionary flood. On this vigorous outburst the little man beat a hasty retreat. He is said to have begun intrigues with the Prussian demagogue party, feeling that he has not sufficient influence over the Brandenburg Cabinet. The latter body, unfortunately, is a perfect weathercock, continually doing and undoing, beginning and abandoning, advancing and retiring with the most deplorable ineptitude that can be imagined.
Sagan, March 12, 1850.—The people of Schleswig say that if they are not sent a million and a half of crowns they will attack the Danes alone on April 1. The Danes reply that if they are attacked they will immediately seize all the German ships, and upon this occasion there will be no question of restoration. Thereupon Rauch was sent to Schleswig with the most vigorous instructions to dismiss Bonin, and to recall all the Prussian officers; but three hours later the Cabinet was terrified by its own unusual display of energy, and sent fresh instructions after Rauch by express messenger, so much milder in purport that no definite result can be expected.