The high school failures

by F. P. O'Brien

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4. THE INITIAL RECORD IN HIGH SCHOOL FOR PROGNOSIS OF FAILURE

For this purpose the pupil record for the first year, in reference to failures, is deemed more adequate and dependable than the record for the first semester only. Accordingly, the pupils have been classified on their first year's record into those who had 0, 1, 2, 3, and up to 7 or more failures. Then these groups were further distributed into those who failed 0, 1, 2, 3, and up to 7 or more times after the first year. From such a double distribution we may get some indication of what assurance the first year's record offers on the expectation of later failures. [Table VII] presents these facts.

[Table VII] is read in this manner: Of all the pupils who have failures the first year (805 boys, and 1,129 girls) 397 boys and 672 girls have failures later, 105 boys and 130 girls have 1 failure later, 77 boys and 98 girls have 2 failures later, while 68 boys and 63 girls have seven or more failures later. The column of totals to the right gives the pupils for each number of failures for the first year. The line of totals at the bottom gives the pupils for each number of failures subsequent to the first year.

The table includes 3,508 pupils, since those who did not remain in school more than three semesters are not included (1,120 boys, 1,513 girls). Obviously, those who do not stay more than one year would have no subsequent school record, and those remaining only a brief time beyond one year would not have a record of comparable length. It seems quite significant, too, for the purposes of our prognosis, that of the 2,633 pupils dropping out in three semesters or less only about 43 per cent have ever failed (boys—46 per cent, girls—41 per cent). In contrast to this, nearly 70 per cent (69.6) of those continuing in school more than three semesters fail one or more times. Those who drop out without failure, in the three semesters or less, constitute nearly 60 per cent of the total non-failing pupils (2,568), but the failing pupils who drop out in that same period constitute less than 32 per cent of the total who fail (3,573). This situation received some emphasis in [Chapter II] and will be further treated in [Chapter IV], under the comparison of the failing and non-failing groups.

TABLE VII

SUBSEQUENT RECORD OF FAILURES FOR PUPILS
FAILING 1, 2, 3, ETC., TIMES THE FIRST YEAR

FAILURES
OF 1ST	FAILURES SUBSEQUENT TO FIRST YEAR
YEAR	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7+	TOTALS
0 B.	397	105	77	50	47	37	24	68	805
G.	672	130	98	60	53	27	26	63	1129
	1069	235	175	110	100	64	50	131	1934
1 B.	46	43	34	33	35	21	15	46	273
G.	65	43	53	33	33	19	17	67	330
	111	86	87	66	68	40	32	113	603
2 B.	22	24	23	23	30	21	13	57	213
G.	42	32	27	21	22	13	15	83	255
	64	56	50	44	52	34	28	140	468
3 B.	7	5	16	10	10	13	10	30	101
G.	8	9	7	10	17	6	7	41	105
	15	14	23	20	27	19	17	71	206
4 B.	6	8	5	7	7	11	7	23	74
G.	8	7	5	6	10	8	4	27	75
	14	15	10	13	17	19	11	50	149
5 B.	3	1	0	2	1	5	3	11	26
G.	5	9	5	6	5	4	2	14	50
	8	10	5	8	6	9	5	25	76
6 B.	0	1	4	2	1	1	1	10	20
G.	2	1	2	2	6	2	0	6	21
	2	2	6	4	7	3	1	16	41
7+ B.	3	2	1	0	1	0	2	5	14
G.	1	2	1	1	5	2	0	5	17
	4	4	2	1	6	2	2	10	31
Tot. B.	484	189	160	127	132	109	75	250	1526
G.	803	233	198	139	151	81	71	306	1982
	1287	422	358	266	283	190	146	556	3508

Referring directly now to [Table VII], we find that 44.7 per cent of those not failing the first year do fail later. Of all those who fail the first year, 13.8 per cent escape any later failures. Of all the pupils included in this table 15.8 per cent have 7 or more failures, while of those failing in the first year 27 per cent later have 7 or more failures. For the number included in this table 30.4 per cent have no failures assigned to them.

PERCENTAGE OF FIRST YEAR FAILING GROUPS, WHO LATER HAVE NO FAILURES