A B C D   P

– B C D   –

or

P   A B C D

–   – B C D

In the first instance A is probably the cause of the phenomenon, since it is present when the phenomenon occurs and absent when it does not occur. For a similar reason, A is the effect in the second case.

(3) Concrete illustrations.

(A) A wise teacher in ascertaining the cause of John’s tardiness would have suggested at once a change of route. Using as symbols the initial letters of the key-words of the antecedents in the case, the following results:

s d h w   t

s d h −   –