That chance is a literal confession of ignorance, is a wholesome truth for all to bear in mind. If we were not so ignorant of atmospheric conditions, we would never be caught in the rain without an umbrella; if we knew perfectly the laws of mechanics, we would not speed our car and trust to luck that the car would hold together.
(2) Chance mathematically considered.
The principle of the “calculation of chances” has been discussed elsewhere. It will be sufficient here to illustrate the principle from a mathematical point of view.
Suppose that a jeweller desires to dispose of a ten-dollar watch by a raffle. He may place a hundred numbers in a box, one of which corresponds to the number on the watch. My chance of drawing the right number is one out of a hundred and may be expressed by the fraction 1⁄100. The fact that I may draw the right number on the first trial or on the last trial is immaterial. The real meaning of the ratio “one out of a hundred” is, that in the long run, I shall lose 99 times where I gain but once. This implies, that if I pay 25 cents for each draw, I shall in the end pay 99 times 25 cents for the watch, or I will have paid $24.75 for a ten dollar watch.
(3) Chance and gambling.
In all forms of gambling no wealth is produced. What one man gains the other man loses. In addition to this the institution which projects the gambling scheme mustbe supported. In consequence, more money must be lost than can possibly be gained. This leads to the conclusion that on the basis of averages he who would gamble must terminate his career “behind the game.” Statistics verify this conclusion.
(4) Chance and investments.
Interest, which is money paid for the use of money, is high when the demand for money exceeds the supply and low when the supply equals or exceeds the demand. The fact that the supply is short is largely due to the lack of confidence on the part of the investor. This means that he is unwilling to take the risk. Thus the principle: “High rate of interest, great risk; low rate of interest, little risk.”
7. THE RATIONALIZATION OF POLITICAL AND BUSINESS SOPHISTRIES.
“Win right or wrong” is a nut shell statement of modern sophistry. Corollaries to this are such aphorisms as “Of two evils choose the lesser”; “Do evil that good may come,” etc. Armed with these platitudes the modern business and political octopus will play the bully and squeeze the life out of the little fellow in the name of economy; will pay for editorials to elect the “right man”; will evade bad laws so-called; institute lobbies; buy votes; and perpetrate a thousand other immoral deeds in the name of “good business” or of “party loyalty.”