Von Spee was at his full strength, having recently added the Dresden and Leipzig to the squadron while at Easter Island, he possessed the advantage of homogeneity, and his squadron was far more modern. The result we know, our ships were out-gunned and completely outclassed. Fate played right into the hands of von Spee on this occasion.
It was undoubtedly a severe blow to British prestige in these parts, and the Germans in all the large towns were not slow in making the most of this temporary success in order to advance their own interests. The rumours that were circulated caused no little perturbation amongst the neutral shipping agents, who feared that von Spee would lose no time in attacking British trade, and that those cargoes which were consigned to Great Britain would be in jeopardy. Insurance rates rose with a bound, and it is said that the Germans went about openly deriding the British and causing the most fantastic articles to be inserted in the local Press. The exaggerated reports that were published, both of the action and of its effects, certainly lends colour to this source of information.
It will be interesting to consider what von Spee would have done if he had missed Admiral Cradock and the action off Coronel had not been fought. In view of his superior speed, von Spee would in all probability have continued on his southerly course and rounded Cape Horn, leaving Admiral Cradock behind him. There seem to be grounds for supposing that he might go to the Cape of Good Hope, but the campaign in German South West Africa could scarcely be said to be progressing favourably for the Germans, and it is not unreasonable to suppose he would have preferred to go north along the eastern side of South America to harass our trade. It is legitimate to suppose that in this case he would not have delayed to attack the Falkland Islands, with Cradock's squadron on his heels and Stoddart's ships converging on him from the north; in fact, it would have been suicidal, for the wireless station there would have given our ships warning of his approach, and the delay might have enabled our two forces to unite. From Stoddart's squadron alone he had nothing to fear, and most likely would have welcomed an opportunity of bringing it to action. The presence of the Defence at Montevideo would certainly have been known to him at that time, and he would probably have hoped to intercept her before she joined Cradock. Had all this come to pass, the Germans might then have separated, and when it was found that the theatre of operations in the South Atlantic became too hot for them, they might have endeavoured to make their way home after doing as much damage as possible to our commerce.
As events turned out, however, von Spee waited about at sea for a day or two after the action, apparently in the hope of either hearing news of the Good Hope or finding her. Writing at sea on November 2nd, he says, in a letter that afterwards appeared in the German Press: "If Good Hope escaped, she must, in my opinion, make for a Chilean port on account of her damages. To make sure of this, I intend going to Valparaiso to-morrow with Gneisenau and Nürnberg, and to see whether Good Hope could not be disarmed by the Chileans." Writing under date of November 5th, he adds: "We arrived at Valparaiso this morning.... The news of our victory had not yet reached here, but spread very quickly." The squadron split up, it seems, arriving at different dates at Mas-a-Fuera, which became the temporary headquarters of the German squadron for the next fortnight. Here all ships coaled in turn. Communication was maintained by sending the German light cruisers into Valparaiso one after the other to get the latest information. The Leipzig was there somewhere about November 13th. This would show a proper caution on his part, as belligerent vessels cannot use neutral ports except at extended intervals.
At Valparaiso von Spee must have obtained information concerning the movements of our squadron under Admiral Stoddart, who had then just sailed north from Montevideo. He would also have probably been aware of the presence of the Japanese squadron operating in the Northern Pacific.
In order to make the position clear, it must be apprehended that a squadron consisting of the British light cruiser Newcastle, together with the Japanese cruiser Idzuma, and the small battleship Hizen, was concentrated in the North Pacific. The battle-cruiser Australia left Suva, Fiji, on November 8th to strengthen this squadron, so that it may be deduced that this was a direct result of the Coronel action which took place just a week before. She joined these ships on November 26th at Chamela Bay on the west coast of Mexico. The object of this squadron was to prevent von Spee from coming north, and to close on him should he remain on the western coast of South America. Sailing southwards, these ships visited the Galapagos Islands and then proceeded on their quest for the enemy, the Newcastle searching the Cocos Islands en route. When nearing the coast of Colombia, the splendid news of the Falkland Islands battle was received, after which these ships split up and separated.
In view of these various courses of action open to von Spee, the reader will appreciate how our minds were occupied with the question of his future movements. Would he, in the hope of adding further to his laurels, attempt to repeat his success by going into the North Pacific to engage the Allied squadron there, which might have been inferior to him in strength? Or would he go south and follow up his advantage in a direction where there was nothing to oppose him for the moment, except the Canopus and Glasgow? He could not hope successfully to combat all the different squadrons looking for him, nor, for that matter, did he wish to risk his ships, for there were no others to replace them. It was not his rôle to adopt such an offensive. He therefore chose to give the impression that he was remaining off Chile, and then suddenly vanished into complete oblivion. Leaving no trace of his movements, he was careful to forgo using all wireless; and, having completed arrangements as to future supplies, he determined to appear suddenly where he was least expected. History repeats itself, and he evidently decided that the boldest plan was what would be least anticipated, and therefore most likely to be productive of success.
Taking another point of view, it was obviously to von Spee's advantage to hasten round to the east coast of South America as quickly as possible after the action off Coronel took place, and thus to reap the full benefit of the success that he had already gained. He could not possibly have shut his eyes to the fact that the immediate following up of his victory was the most promising policy for any scheme of operations in the South Atlantic. He would then have been able to strike before reinforcements could come out from England, which he must have been aware would be sent out to hunt him down. Why, then, did he delay a whole month? On his own showing the repairs necessary to render his ships fit for further service only took a few days, and it would not take long to arrange for his future supplies on the east coast of South America with all the German shipping cooped up in this part of the world waiting to be put to any useful purpose. Is it, therefore, unreasonable to suppose that he waited in order to collect German reservists from Chile, either to garrison the Falkland Islands once they had been captured, or to take or escort them home to Germany? He knew that he was really superior to the force under Admiral Stoddart, yet he delayed leaving till November 26th, a period of nearly four weeks. The inference of which is that he was not ready, and further that a seizure of the Falkland Islands was deliberately contemplated and prepared for, and was to be his first step. An additional possible explanation lies in the deduction that he could not have estimated that he would have defeated Cradock so completely, and therefore took time to consider the altered situation before committing himself to a definite move, hoping in the interval to get more information which might lead to a further stroke of good fortune. The threat of the Australia and the Japanese squadron to the north was not sufficiently pronounced to force him to hurry.
We have seen that it was almost out of the question for von Spee to maintain his ships in the Northern Pacific, but the conditions were entirely different on the west coast of South America. Here there were a number of uninhabited anchorages where he could shelter, and he had a large German population to help him on the coast of Chile. In fact, he did maintain himself here until he knew that hostile forces were concentrating and would move south to drive him out. Meanwhile, he had effected repairs to his ships, and had completed arrangements in advance for the supplies of his ships on the east coast of South America. Thus the conclusion appeared to be that there was no alternative open to von Spee but to leave the Pacific, where he had already shot his bolt.
Whatever the true explanation of his policy may be, the movements of his squadron point to his having been quite at a loss what to do next. His position was so hazardous and uncertain, so full of future difficulties, that he could not see his way clear for any length of time in order to work out any concerted plan. He was a fugitive pure and simple, and felt that whatever he did was in the nature of a venture.