[CHAPTER VIII]
POSSIBILITIES AND PROBABILITIES
The various possible courses open to Admiral Count von Spee, both before and after Coronel, have already been discussed, but the movements of his squadron have not been subjected to examination in the light that they bear on the policy which he adopted, nor have the results of that action been considered from his point of view.
The German squadron sailed from Mas-a-Fuera on October 27th, and three days later arrived about noon at a position some fifty miles to the westward of Valparaiso, where it remained for upwards of twenty-four hours. On October 31st—the same day that the Glasgow went into Coronel with telegrams and the day before that action was fought—the squadron steamed off south, leaving the Nürnberg to wait off Valparaiso for a few hours and probably to get information of importance. The German Admiral undoubtedly went to the neighbourhood of Valparaiso with the express intention of obtaining news and was in communication with the shore, for he begins his official report on the action fought off Coronel by saying that his three light cruisers reached on November 1st a point about twenty "sea miles from the Chilean coast, in order to attack a British cruiser (Glasgow), which, according to trustworthy information, had reached the locality on the previous evening."
It is, of course, impossible to know what were von Spee's intentions at this moment; they can only be surmised from a general survey of the situation and the means that he had of obtaining information. The latter was acquired by an organised system, for there were German agents in every South American port. It may be taken as certain that any ship calling at or passing Punta Arenas (Magellan Straits) would be reported to him, and that the names of the ships and certain of their movements on the south-east coast would also be known to him.
Easter Island—which was von Spee's original base—is approximately 2,300 miles from Valparaiso, and therefore out of range of wireless communication, although it is possible he might occasionally be able to take in a message under favourable conditions. However, it is known from an officer survivor of the Gneisenau that on October 19th the German Admiral received a message—possibly through a German supply ship—stating that a British Squadron consisting of "Good Hope, Monmouth, and Glasgow was to the south." Now we know that this squadron was at Punta Arenas on September 28th, and leaving on that date was employed searching inlets and bays round Tierra del Fuego for some days. The Good Hope then returned to the Falklands, finally leaving them on October 22nd, whilst the others went on to the coast of Chile and were there from October 11th onwards, making use of a sequestered spot as a base. The Glasgow was at Coronel on October 14th and at Valparaiso the day following, so the fact of a British Squadron being "south" was well known, though the information did not reach von Spee till the 19th.
On receiving this news von Spee sailed immediately. He knew he was in superior force to Cradock's squadron, and the presumption is that he went over to prospect and, if possible, to force an action. He went straight to Mas-a-Fuera, only remained two days to coal, and then on to a position off Valparaiso to pick up further information.
Immediately on hearing that the Glasgow was at Coronel on the 31st, he proceeded south to cut her off, and, as was likely to be the case, to meet Cradock. He must have judged that the rest of the squadron could not be far behind the Glasgow. The probability was that he received information of the Good Hope passing through the Straits about the 24th or 25th, and he might also have heard of the Canopus doing so a day or two later, in which case he would have calculated that the latter could scarcely be so far north by this time.
There is no indication that by this date von Spee had made up his mind to quit the South Pacific. He had hardly had time to make his arrangements for so doing, and there is no doubt that they were not then completed.