It was openly asserted in the Austrian Press that the Epirotes were being aided by Greece, who wished to recover the province; but there was another group who held that the insurgents were deriving their assistance from Italy, who wished by this means to destroy the authority of the Austrians in the northern part of Albania. Italian interests in Albania, as had always been emphasised, converged on the important harbour known as Vallona Bay, which lies almost directly opposite Brindisi. After the outbreak of the present war, this group strongly urged that Italy was merely holding back for the time being in order that she might at a subsequent date make a raid on this part of Albania and annex the territory she desired. The importance of Vallona Bay will be shown by a glance at the map. Austria's only exit to the open sea lies through the Straits of Otranto, which are about forty-five miles wide at the narrowest points, viz: Otranto on the Italian side and Cape Glossa at the mouth of Vallona Bay on the opposite side. It is obvious that if Italy had both these points strongly fortified, it would be practically impossible for an Austrian fleet to pass through.
Whatever Italy's ultimate designs may be—and they are not clear at the time of writing—the fact remains that down to the middle of September, she had taken no steps in the direction of swerving from the neutrality which she had proclaimed at the beginning of the war.
Throughout August various hints were given as to what Italy might lose by not joining her Allies and what she might gain if she did join them. It soon became evident, however, even to the German Press, that Italy, whatever she did, would certainly not come into the firing line with Germany and Austria; and from about the middle of August onwards the inspired German Press confined itself to expressing the hope that their partner's Government would not at least join the other side. On August 14th, for example, the Vossische Zeitung said: "After several years of alliance the very minimum that Germany can demand from Italy is a neutrality, not half-hearted, but having Germany's real welfare in view." This was the tone adopted by the other semi-official organs of the Government about this time.
This change of tone in the German Press, which at first seemed to take it for granted that Italy would join her Allies enthusiastically, must have been due either to forgetfulness or to an entire misconception of the Italian nation. If, to take an inconceivable hypothesis, the Italian Government had wished to go to war on behalf of Germany against the wishes of the Italian people, and if, further, Italy, like Germany, had been composed of a powerful ruling caste and a well-drilled population, no doubt the Italian army would have invaded France. Unlike Germany, however, Italy is composed of peoples whose nature are of a more independent character, and whose form of government is entirely different.
As soon as war broke out, it was clear that the sympathies of the Italian people were wholly on the side of England, France, and Russia, and that it was the wish of the people, if it became necessary to draw the sword, to wield it in such a way as to recover Italia Irredenta, which happened to be under Austrian rule.
It should be remarked that Italy's obligations under her treaty of alliance with Germany and Austria did not compel her to take part in any war unless the war were a purely defensive one; and the Government at Rome made it clear from the first that it regarded the action of Austria towards Servia, and the action of Germany towards France and Belgium, as aggressive.
In spite of reiterated assurances of neutrality, it was persistently rumoured, particularly in Paris, that Italy would declare war on Austria at almost any moment. Although no general mobilisation order was issued at Rome, it was understood that several classes of reservists had been called up. It was indeed felt that any action which Italy might take ought to be taken soon. Well-known military and naval experts, such as Admiral Mahan, expressed the view that Italy "would do well to make her strength felt early."
On August 29th an incident was reported which seemed to show that the decisive step might come at any time. On the previous day information was received at Malta to the effect that Herr von Bitzow, who had been acting as German Consul at Tripoli, had been carrying on an anti-Italian propaganda among the natives; and it was even alleged that he had issued a secret manifesto urging them to make demonstrations. The Italian Government, with more than its usual promptitude, had the offending Consul arrested and removed to Italy, at the same time lodging a protest with the German Foreign Office. No more was heard of this incident at the time; but, as may easily be imagined if it had occurred at any other juncture it would have brought about an acute crisis within the radius of the Triple Alliance.