How the situation was developed was made clear from a long statement sent to London, by a circuitous route, by the Rome correspondent of The Daily Telegraph, and published on September 5th. He said that the Italian fleet was fully mobilised, and was ready for all eventualities. The battle fleet was concentrated at Taranto, under the able and energetic command of the Duke of the Abruzzi. No decree had been issued for the complete mobilisation of the army; but six classes of reservists had been called out. The calling out of fifteen classes would be tantamount to a general mobilisation. Very careful and very thorough preparations were being made. Troops were being slowly and methodically concentrated on the Austrian frontier. Those stationed on the French frontier, except the ordinary peace garrisons and depôt troops, had already been transferred. Any idea of Italy acting against France was out of the question; but these preparations did not necessarily mean war with Austria.
The Italian Government, clearly enough, was fully alive to the situation. Italy wished to bide her time till the psychological moment arrived. That moment had not yet arrived. In any case, the Government was anxious not to precipitate events until after the Conclave electing the new Pope had finished its labours.
All sailings of the Veloce transatlantic liners were suspended at this time. This was regarded as significant, as transports would not be needed unless Italy were contemplating landing troops either in Albania or on Austrian soil.
The correspondent added:
If Italy goes to war with Austria it will be a popular war. The Government knows well that if Germany and Austria win they will bear as great a grudge against Italy for remaining neutral as they would if she threw in her lot against them. It is most important, therefore, that Italy should see to it that Germany and Austria do not win. If, on the other hand, the Triple Entente and their allies win, all Italy can hope for on the conclusion of hostilities is the cession of Trent and the protectorate of Central Albania, with Valona as a reward for her neutrality. Whereas if Italy threw in her lot against Germany and Austria she could hope to recover Trieste and to establish a sound military reputation into the bargain. Moreover, if Italy remains neutral she is likely to experience before long grave economic and social unrest. Italy is very hardly hit by the war. There is a great deal of unemployment. All this would be forgotten if she went to war; and although the problems would recur after the peace, there is much to be said for putting off the evil hour till after the new settlement.
All these facts point to the conclusion that Italy will eventually go to war with Austria. But the moment has not arrived yet. She will have no difficulty in finding a pretext. She may find one in Albania, or in the treatment of Italians in Trieste. The Government may plead the irresistible pressure of public opinion. There is no need for Italy to feel any shame at turning against her old allies, as there is no disguising the fact that she had remained a member of the Triple Alliance for purely time-serving purposes. When she does act, she will act with vigour.
The Marchese di San Giuliano has been for some time in very poor health. He is better again now, and is back in Rome. Among a certain section of the public and of the Press he has been called upon to resign. A more decisive and clearer policy is demanded. But, as a matter of fact, he is likely to remain at his post, as it is felt that there is no man able to fill it of his experience and capacity. The country as a whole has confidence in him. The same may be said of the Prime Minister, Signor Salandra. Since he has been at the head of affairs he has made something of a reputation, and he is known to be a sound economist. The financial position of Italy is not rosy, but there is every reason to hope that the critical period through which she is now passing will be successfully negotiated. Her entry into the war would not materially augment her difficulties on this score.