Climate and Time in Their Geological Relations / A Theory of Secular Changes of the Earth's Climate

by James Croll

Mr. Murphy’s Theory.—In a paper read before the Geological Society by Mr. Murphy[44] he admits that the glacial climate was due to an increase of eccentricity, but maintains in opposition to me that the glaciated hemisphere must be that in which the summer occurs in aphelion during the greatest eccentricity of the earth’s orbit.

I fear that Mr. Murphy must be resting his theory on the mistaken idea that a summer in aphelion ought to melt less snow and ice than one in perihelion. It is quite true that the longer summer in aphelion—other things being equal—is colder than the shorter one in perihelion, but the quantity of heat received from the sun is the same in both cases. Consequently the quantity of snow and ice melted ought also to be the same; for the amount melted is in proportion to the quantity of energy in the form of heat received.

It is true that with us at present less snow and ice are melted during a cold summer than during a warm one. But this is not a case in point, for during a cold summer we have less heat than during a warm summer, the length of both being the same. The coldness of the summers in this case is owing chiefly to a portion of the heat which we ought to receive from the sun being cut off by some obstructing cause.

The reason why we have so little snow, and consequently so little ice, in temperate regions, is not, as Mr. Murphy seems to suppose, that the heat of summer melts it all, but that there is so little to melt. And the reason why we have so little to melt is that, owing to the warmth of our winters, we have generally rain instead of snow. But if you increase the eccentricity very much, and place the winter in perihelion, we should probably have no snow whatever, and, as far as glaciation is concerned, it would then matter very little what sort of summer we had.

But it is not correct to say that the perihelion summer of the glacial epoch must have been hot. There are physical reasons, as we have just seen, which go to prove that, notwithstanding the nearness of the sun at that season, the temperature would seldom, if ever, rise much above the freezing-point.

Besides, Mr. Murphy overlooks the fact that the nearness of the sun during summer was nearly as essential to the production of the ice, as we shall shortly see, as his great distance during winter.

We must now proceed to the consideration of an agency which is brought into operation by the foregoing condition of things, an agency far more potent than any which has yet come under our notice, viz., the Deflection of Ocean-currents.

Deflection of Ocean-currents the chief Cause of secular Changes of Climate.—The enormous extent to which the thermal condition of the globe is affected by ocean-currents seems to cast new light on the mystery of geological climate. What, for example, would be the condition of Europe were the Gulf-stream stopped, and the Atlantic thus deprived of one-fifth of the absolute amount of heat which it is now receiving above what it has in virtue of the temperature of space? If the results just arrived at be at all justifiable, it follows that the stoppage of the stream would lower the temperature of northern Europe to an extent that would induce a condition of climate as severe as that of North Greenland; and were the warm currents of the North Pacific also at the same time to be stopped, the northern hemisphere would assuredly be subjected to a state of general glaciation.

Suppose also that the warm currents, having been withdrawn from the northern hemisphere, should flow into the Southern Ocean: what then would be the condition of the southern hemisphere? Such a transference of heat would raise the temperature of the latter hemisphere about as much as it would lower the temperature of the former. It would consequently raise the mean temperature of the antarctic regions much above the freezing-point, and the ice under which those regions are at present buried would, to a great extent at least, disappear. The northern hemisphere, thus deprived of the heat from the equator, would be under a condition of things similar to that which prevailed during the glacial epoch; while the other hemisphere, receiving the heat from the equator, would be under a condition of climate similar to what we know prevailed in the northern hemisphere during a part of the Upper Miocene period, when North Greenland enjoyed a climate as mild as that of England at the present day.

This is no mere picture of the imagination, no mere hypothesis devised to meet a difficult case; for if what has already been stated be not completely erroneous, all this follows as a necessary consequence from physical principles. If the warm currents of the equatorial regions be all deflected into one hemisphere, such must be the condition of things. How then do the agencies which we have been considering deflect ocean-currents?