The analogy, however, is misleading. The "marginal" one thousand wage earners refuse to work for four dollars a day because they can get better compensation in some other occupation. This phenomenon has been proved over and over again by observation and experience. On the other hand, there is no experience, no positive evidence, which shows or tends to show that any necessary group of present savers would discontinue or materially reduce their accumulations if they were no longer able to secure the present rate of interest. If the rate were lowered simultaneously in all civilised countries the dissatisfied savers, unlike the dissatisfied labourers, would not be able to get a better price for their capital elsewhere. Their only alternative would be to spend their actual or potential savings for present enjoyment. Now we have no empirical data to justify the assumption that any considerable number of savers would choose this alternative in preference to, say, three or two per cent. interest. The fact that any group of savers at present gets and insists on getting a higher rate, merely proves that they can get it, and that they are selfish enough to take advantage of the possibility. We know that some men who now obtain six per cent. interest would accept two rather than cease to save; yet they do not hesitate to demand six per cent. So far as we know, all present savers might take the same attitude. At any rate, we can not conclude that they would not take less from the fact that they now get more. Why then does not the rate of interest fall? If all present savers are getting a higher rate than is necessary to induce them to save, why do they not increase their savings to such an extent that the supply of capital will exceed the present volume of demand, and thus lead to a decline in the rate of interest? This is what happens when the price of consumption-goods rises appreciably above the minimum level that satisfies the most high-priced or "marginal" producers. There is, however, an important difference between the two cases. The capacity to produce more goods is practically unlimited, and the corresponding desire is also unlimited, so long as the price of the product exceeds the cost of production. The capacity to save is not unlimited, and the desire to save is neutralised and sharply restricted by other and more powerful desires. Hence it is quite possible that the price of capital, i.e., interest, is determined to only a slight degree by the "cost" of saving, being mainly dominated and regulated from the side of demand.
Even though many of the present savers and owners of capital should diminish or discontinue their functions on account of a fall in the rate of interest, a reduction would not necessarily take place in the supply of capital. The function of these "marginal savers" would in all probability be performed by other persons, who would be compelled to increase their accumulations in order to provide as well for the future as they had previously been able to provide with a smaller capital at a higher rate of interest.[143]
Whether at Least Two Per Cent. Is Necessary
While admitting that the present rate is unnecessarily high, Professor Cassel maintains that a certain important class of savers would diminish very considerably their accumulations if the interest rate should fall much below two per cent. This class comprises those persons whose main object in saving is a fund which will some day support them from its interest. At six per cent. a person can accumulate in about twelve years a sum sufficient to provide him with an interest-income equal to the amount annually saved. For example; two thousand dollars put aside every year, and subjected to compound interest, will aggregate in twelve years a principal capable of yielding an annual income of two thousand dollars. At two per cent. the same amount of yearly saving will not lead to the same income in less than thirty-five years. If the rate be one and one-half per cent., forty-seven years will be required to produce the desired income. Hence, concludes Cassel, if the rate falls below two per cent. the average man will decide that life is too short to provide for the future by means of an interest-income, and will expect to draw upon his principal. This means that he will not need to save as much as when he sought to accumulate a capital large enough to support him out of its interest alone.
The argument is plausible but not conclusive. If the rate of interest is so low that a man must save for forty-seven years in order to obtain a sufficient interest-income to support him in his declining years, he will rarely attain that end. In the great majority of instances men who are unable to save more annually than the amount that they will need each year in old age, will expect and be compelled to use up a part or all of their capital in the period following the cessation of their economic usefulness. Nevertheless, it does not follow that they will save less at one and one-half per cent. than at six per cent. The determining factor in the situation is the attitude of the saver toward the capital sum accumulated. He either desires or does not desire to leave this behind him. In the latter case he will save only as much as is necessary to provide an annual income composed partly of interest and partly of the principal. If this contemplated income is two thousand dollars, and the rate of interest is six per cent., he will not need to save that much annually for as long a period as ten years. He can diminish either the yearly amount saved or the length of time devoted to saving. On the other hand, if the rate is only one and one-half per cent. he will be compelled to save a larger total in order to secure an equal accumulation and an equal provision for the future. In all cases, therefore, in which the saving is carried on merely for the saver's own lifetime it will be increased instead of decreased by a low rate of interest.
If the saver does desire to bequeath his capital he will not always be deterred from this purpose merely because he is compelled to use some of the capital for the satisfaction of his own wants. Take the man who can save two thousand dollars a year, and with the rate of interest at six per cent. assure himself an interest-income of the same amount, and who intends to leave the principal (some thirty-three thousand dollars) to his children. Should the rate fall to one and one-half per cent. he would be unable to accumulate and bequeath nearly such a large sum. Surely this fact, discouraging as it is, will not determine him to save nothing. He will not, as Cassel's argument assumes, decide to leave nothing to his children, and content himself with that amount of saving which will suffice to provide for his own future. In all probability he will try to accumulate a sum which, even when diminished by future deductions for his own wants, will approximate as closely as possible the amount that he could have bequeathed had the rate remained at six per cent. This means that he will save more at the low than at the high rate of interest.
The relative insignificance of the sum which would be saved at a low rate might sometimes, indeed, deter a person from saving for testamentary purposes. With the rate at six per cent., a man might be willing to save six hundred dollars a year for a sufficiently long period to provide a legacy of twenty thousand dollars to an educational institution. With the rate at one and one-half per cent., the amount that he could hope to accumulate would be so much smaller that it might seem to him not worth while, and he would decline to save the six hundred dollars annually. Cases of this kind, however, always involve the secondary objects of saving, the luxuries rather than the necessaries of testamentary transmission. They do not include such primary objects as provision for one's family. When the average man finds that he cannot leave to his family as much as he would desire, as much as he would have bequeathed to them at a higher rate of interest, he will strive to increase rather than decrease his efforts to save for this purpose.
Speaking generally, then, we conclude that the assumption underlying Professor Cassel's theory is contradicted by our experience of human motives and practices. Men who save mainly for a future interest-income, at the same time wishing to keep the principal intact until death, and who could have fully realised this desire under a high interest régime, will not become entirely indifferent to it when they find that they cannot attain it completely. They will ordinarily try to leave behind them as large a capital or principal as they can. Hence they will save more rather than less.
Whether Any Interest Is Necessary
Perhaps the best known recent statement of the opinion that interest is inevitable, appears in Professor Irving Fisher's "The Rate of Interest."[144] While he does not assert explicitly that sufficient capital would not be provided without interest, and even admits that in certain circumstances interest might disappear, the general logic and implications of his argument are decidedly against the supposition that society could ever get along without interest. He lays such stress upon the factor of "impatience," i.e., man's unwillingness to wait for future goods, as to suggest strongly that other causes of interest, and the number of savers free from "impatience," are quite insignificant. Now, if "impatience" were the only cause of interest the latter must continue as long as "impatience" continues; and if practically all savers, actual and possible, are completely dominated by "impatience" the abolition of interest would be socially disastrous. However, neither of these assumptions is demonstrable. We have just seen that the present rate of interest has other causes than "impatience"; that a large proportion of savers insist upon getting the present rate, not because they require it to offset their "impatience," but simply because they can obtain it, and because they prefer it to the lower rate. Therefore, the mere existence of the present rate does not prove it to be necessary. By the same argument it is evident that the existence of any interest does not demonstrate the necessity of some interest. In the second place, the number of savers, present and prospective, whose "impatience" is so weak as to permit them to save without interest, is probably greater than the average reader of Professor Fisher's pages is led to assume. The question whether interest is necessary cannot be answered by reference to the general fact of human "impatience"; it demands a preliminary analysis of the extent to which "impatience" affects the different classes of savers.