With interest abolished, those persons who were willing to subordinate present secondary satisfactions to the primary future needs of themselves and their families, would save at least as much for these purposes as when they could have obtained interest. Most of them would probably save more in order to render their future provision as nearly as possible equal to what it would have been had interest accrued on their annual savings. Whether a person intended to leave all his accumulations, or part of them, or none of them to posterity, he would still desire them to be as large as they might have been in a régime of interest. In order to realise this desire, he would be compelled to increase his savings. And it is reasonable to expect that this is precisely the course that would be followed by men of average thrift and foresight. Such men regard future necessaries and comforts, whether for themselves or their children, as more important than present non-essentials and luxuries. Interest or no interest, prudent men will subordinate the latter goods to the former, and will save money accordingly.
When, however, both future and present goods are of the same order and importance, the future is no longer preferred to the present. In that case the preference is reversed. The luxuries of to-day are more keenly prized than the luxuries of to-morrow. If the latter are to be preferred they must possess some advantage over the luxuries that might be obtained here and now. Such advantage may arise in various ways; for example, when a man decides that he will have more leisure for a foreign journey two years hence than this year, or when he prefers a large amount of future enjoyment at one time to present satisfactions taken in small doses. But the most general method of conferring advantage upon the secondary satisfactions of the future as compared with those of the present, is to increase the quantity. The majority of foreseeing persons are willing to pass by one hundred dollars' worth of enjoyment now for the sake of one hundred and five dollars' worth one year hence. This advantage of quantity is provided through the receipt of interest. It affects all those persons whose saving, as noted in the last chapter, involves a sacrifice for which the only adequate compensation is interest, and likewise all those persons who are in a position to choose between present and future luxuries. Were interest suppressed these classes of persons would cease to save for this kind of future goods.
According to Professor Taussig, "most saving is done by the well-to-do and the rich."[145] On this hypothesis it seems probable that the abolition of interest would diminish the savings and capital of the community very considerably; for the accumulations of the wealthy are derived mainly from interest rather than from salaries. On the other hand, the suppression of interest should bring about a much wider diffusion of wealth. The sums formerly paid out as interest, would be distributed among the masses of the population as increased wages and reduced costs of living. Hence the masses would possess an immensely increased capacity for saving, which might offset or even exceed the loss of saving-power among those who now receive interest-incomes.[146]
To sum up the results of our inquiry concerning the necessity of interest: The fact that men now receive interest does not prove that they would not save without interest. The fact that many men would certainly save without interest does not prove that a sufficient amount would be saved to provide the community with the necessary supply of capital. Whether the savings of those classes that increased their accumulations would counteract the decreases in the saving of the richer classes, is a question that admits of no definite or confident answer.
The State Is Justified in Permitting Interest
If we assume that the suppression of interest would cause a considerable decline in saving and capital, we must conclude that the community would be worse off than under the present system. To diminish greatly the instruments of production, and consequently the supply of goods for consumption, would create far more hardship than it would relieve. While "workless" incomes would be suppressed, and personal incomes more nearly equalised, the total amount available for distribution would probably be so much smaller as to cause a deterioration in the condition of every class. In this hypothesis the State would do wrong to abolish the system of interest.
If, however, we assume that no considerable amount of evil would follow, or that the balance of results would be favourable, the question of the proper action of the State becomes somewhat complex. In the first place, interest could not rightfully be suppressed while the private taking of rent remained. To adopt such a course would be to treat the receivers of property incomes inequitably. Landowners would continue to receive an income from their property, while capital owners would not; yet the moral claims of the former to income are no better than those of the latter. In the second place, the State would be obliged to compensate the owners of existing capital instruments for the decline in value which, as we have already seen, would occur when the item of interest was eliminated from the cost of reproducing such capital instruments. It would likewise be under moral obligation to compensate landowners for whatever decrease in value befell their property as a result of the abolition of rent.
Nevertheless, the practical difficulties confronting the legal abolition of interest are apparently so great as to render the attempt socially unwise and futile. In order to be effective the prohibition would have to be international. Were it enforced in only one or in a few countries, these would suffer far more through the flight of capital than they would gain through the abolition of interest. The technical obstacles in any case would be well nigh insuperable. If the attempt were made to suppress interest on producing capital, as well as on loans, the civil authorities would be unable to determine with any degree of precision what part of the gross returns of a business was pure interest, and what part was a necessary compensation for risk and the labour of management. Should the State try to solve this problem by allowing the directors of industry varying salaries to correspond with their comparative degrees of efficiency, and different rates of insurance-payments to represent the different risks, it would inevitably make some allowances so low as to discourage labour and enterprise, and others so high as to give the recipients a considerable amount of pure interest in the guise of profits and salaries. Should it fix a flat rate of salaries and profits, the more efficient undertakers would refuse to put forth their best efforts, and the more perilous enterprises would not be undertaken. The supervision of expenses, receipts, and other details of business that would be required to prevent evasion of the law, would not improbably cost more than the total amount now paid in the form of interest. On the other hand, if the method of suppression were confined to loans it would probably prove only a little less futile than the effort to abolish interest on productive capital. The great majority of those who were prevented from lending at interest would invest their money in stocks, land, buildings, and other forms of productive property. Moreover, it is probable that a large volume of loans would be made despite the prohibition. In the Middle Ages, when the amount of money available for lending was comparatively small, and when State and Church and public opinion were unanimous in favour of the policy, the legal prohibition of loans was only partially effective. Now that the supply of and the demand for loans have enormously increased, and interest is not definitely disapproved by the Church or the public, a similar effort by the State would undoubtedly prove a failure. Even if it were entirely successful it would only decrease, not abolish, interest on productive capital.[147]
In view of the manifold and grave uncertainties of the situation, it is practically certain that modern States are justified in permitting interest.