There seems to have been little enthusiasm for the project of a triple alliance on the part of any of the foreign Ministries concerned. Great Britain appears to have shown more inclination in this direction than the other two Powers, for until a late stage in the negotiations with Japan the point would seem to have been kept in view by the British Cabinet. If the German Government ever seriously entertained the idea—which is very doubtful—it was merely for the reasons mentioned by the Foreign Office in Berlin, that the inclusion of Japan might be acceptable to her on general grounds, since she would “find herself in good company,” and might make negotiations with Great Britain easier, “as Japan was popular in Germany.” The alliance with Great Britain was regarded as the main consideration; and even in this matter there is no reason to think that the German overtures were sincere, for Berlin’s insistence on Austria’s being brought into the business, though not as a contracting party, added to the difficulties already in existence. Nor, on the side of Japan, where the part played by Germany in the Liaotung incident was not forgotten, does there seem to have been any marked desire for the inclusion of that Power in any understanding between herself and Great Britain. This explains the separate character of the negotiations carried on in London. As between Great Britain and Germany, they lasted no longer than a few weeks, during which time they appear to have been kept alive only by the efforts of the German Chargé d’Affaires, to whose initiative the project was due. After the resumption of his duties by the German Ambassador the negotiations were transferred to Berlin, where they soon came to an end. Their failure is described by the author of the Reminiscences as “the starting-point of the encirclement [Einkreisung] of Germany, and of the world-war which was the mathematical consequence.”

The parallel negotiations between Great Britain and Japan were not interrupted by the inability of the British and German Governments to arrive at an understanding. No obstacles of the kind that stood in the way of an agreement between the two other Powers existed. The cordial relations which had been established as a result of the settlement of the long-pending question of Treaty revision had been improved by the close co-operation of the two countries in the international measures in which both had joined at the time of the Boxer outbreak, and by the harmony of views that was developed during the Peking negotiations. The only difficulty which presented itself lay in the fact, already referred to, that the Japanese Government was hesitating between two opposite courses—an understanding with Russia and an agreement with Great Britain. The decision rested with the leading statesmen, who on this point were divided into two parties, one led by the late Prince Itō and the late Marquis Inouyé, the other by Prince (then Marquis) Yamagata and the late Prince Katsura. Itō, whose pro-German tendencies were well known, was in favour of coming to an understanding, if possible, with Russia, and his opinion was shared by Inouyé. Yamagata and Katsura, on the other hand, were inclined towards an alliance with Great Britain. Fortunately for the London negotiations, the cleavage of opinion did not follow clan lines. The Chōshiū party, to which the four statesmen in question all belonged, was itself divided. Fortunately, also, Katsura was then Premier. His and Yamagata’s policy was adopted by the Cabinet, and finally prevailed. In his opposition to the Cabinet’s policy Itō went so far as to arrange that a visit he was about to make to America in connection with celebrations at the University of Yale should be extended to Russia, where he seems to have exchanged views with Russian statesmen. His action threatened at one moment to imperil the success of the London negotiations, and it became necessary for the Japanese Government to explain that his visit to Russia had no official character. In the face of this disavowal he could do little. Whatever plans he and those who supported him may have formed came to nothing, and in the end he was forced to content himself with criticizing unfavourably the draft of the Anglo-Japanese Treaty which embodied the final amendments proposed by Japan. The strength of his position in the country at the time, as well as his influence with the late Japanese Emperor, may be gathered from the fact that these last amendments were transmitted by the Government to him in Russia by special messenger, with a request for his opinion.

It is unnecessary to emphasize the importance of the Anglo-Japanese alliance. Count Hayashi, in speaking of it as “an epoch-making event,” does not overstate the case. For both countries it was a new and grave departure in policy, ending an isolation which was a source of weakness to each in the quarter of the world to which it applied. For Japan it had a treble value. It practically assured her against a repetition of the Liaotung incident, while the mere fact of her becoming the ally of one of the leading Powers of the world added greatly to her prestige, and it facilitated the floating of loans on the London market. If the benefit accruing to Great Britain may seem to have been less, the alliance was nevertheless opportune in view of the close understanding between Russia and France in the Far East, the open menace to her interests offered by Russian designs in Manchuria and the danger to be apprehended from their further extension. The fact that the alliance was renewed in an extended form three years later, was again renewed in 1911, and is still in force, shows that both Governments have reason to be satisfied with its results.

The conclusion of the Anglo-Japanese alliance drew from the Russian and French Governments a Declaration, signed in St. Petersburg on March 3rd, 1902, which left no doubt as to the interpretation placed on it in St. Petersburg and Paris. In this Declaration the two Governments, while approving of the fundamental principles affirmed in the Anglo-Japanese Agreement, reserved to themselves the right to consult each other, if necessary, regarding the protection of their interests. The comment of the author of Le Monde et la Guerre Russo-Japonaise on this counter-move was that “it had almost no value as an answer to the Anglo-Japanese Treaty.”

The action of Russia in prolonging indefinitely her occupation of Manchuria, in spite of the protests of other Powers, and her attempts to strengthen her position there by secret arrangements with China, in defiance of the principle of “the open door and equal opportunity” which she had united with other Powers in accepting, caused fresh uneasiness in Washington. On February 1st, 1901, almost simultaneously with the signature of the Anglo-Japanese Treaty, the American Secretary of State, to whose initiative in 1899 the acceptance of this principle had been due, addressed Circular Notes to the Governments of China, Russia and nine other Powers on the subject of the situation created in Manchuria by the Russian occupation. Any agreement, he pointed out, by which China ceded to corporations, or companies, exclusive industrial rights and privileges in connection with the development of Manchuria constituted a monopoly, and, being a distinct breach of the stipulations of treaties between China and foreign Powers, seriously affected the rights of American citizens. Such concessions would be followed by demands from other Powers for similar exclusive advantages in other parts of the Chinese Empire, and would result in “the complete wreck of the policy of absolute equality of treatment of all nations in regard to trade, navigation and commerce within the confines of the Empire.”

Influenced, perhaps, by the Anglo-Japanese alliance and the written protest of the United States, Russia at length, on the 8th April, 1902, concluded at Peking an Agreement for the evacuation of Manchuria. The Agreement was to come into force from the date of signature, and was to be ratified within a period of three months, but this latter stipulation was never observed. It provided for the evacuation to be conducted in three stages, and to be completed in eighteen months—that is to say, by October, 1903. The evacuation was, however, made dependent on two conditions: the absence, meanwhile, of disturbances in the province, and the abstention of other Powers from any action prejudicial to Russian interests therein. The first stage fixed by the Agreement, the withdrawal of Russian troops from the south-western portion of the province of Moukden (Fêng-t’ien), was duly carried out by the date agreed upon, the 8th October, 1902. Before, however, the date fixed for the completion of the next stage of evacuation (March, 1903), the withdrawal of Russian troops from the remainder of the province of Moukden and from the province of Kirin, other and quite new conditions were formulated by the Russian Government, one being that no “treaty ports” should be opened in the evacuated territory. In the face of the well-known fact that the fresh commercial treaties which America and Japan were negotiating with China contemplated the opening of additional places for foreign trade in Manchuria, these sudden demands indicated no intention on Russia’s part to abide by the Agreement. If any doubt in this respect existed, it was removed by her action in reoccupying early in 1903 districts she had already evacuated, this step being followed by the issue in July of the same year of an Imperial Ukase appointing Admiral Alexeieff Viceroy of the Amur and Kwantung territories—the latter being, as already mentioned, the name of the small peninsula in which Port Arthur is situated.

CHAPTER XXVI
War with Russia—Success of Japan—President Roosevelt’s Mediation—Treaty of Portsmouth—Peace Terms.

The threatening attitude of Russia, who no longer made any pretence of masking her designs in China, was regarded with increasing anxiety in Japan, where the necessity of preparing to meet force with force had already been foreseen. But the high-handed proceedings of the Russians in Manchuria were not the only cause of the tension that from this moment began to appear in the relations between the two countries. Mischief of a kind which had already led to war between China and Japan was also brewing in Korea. By the Treaty of Shimonoséki, which ended the war, the independence of that country was recognized. China in relinquishing her claim to suzerainty no longer maintained Chinese guards for her Legation in Seoul, and ceased from all political activity in the peninsula, where the influence of Japan for a time became predominant. But history was about to repeat itself. Into the place vacated by China, Russia at once stepped, and Japan found herself confronted by another and far more dangerous competitor. The positions of the two new rivals in Korea were very different. The alliance forced by Japan on the Korean Government at the outset of the war with China had enabled her to strengthen her political influence, while the energy she threw into the development of business projects of various kinds had increased her material interests in the peninsula. The lion’s share of Korea’s foreign trade and maritime transport was in the hands of Japan. She had also constructed and was in charge of the working of telegraphic communications in that country; she had secured a concession for the construction of railways; and she had her own postal service. Russia, on the other hand, took no part in business enterprise, and her trade with Korea was insignificant. She could not, like China, point to traditions of old-established intercourse, nor had she the latter’s plea of suzerainty to justify interference in Korean affairs. Her position in the peninsula was, nevertheless, not without some advantages. As in the case of China, her territory was co-terminous for a considerable distance with that of Korea. This supplied a reason for regarding with disfavour the extension of Japanese influence on the mainland, as well as a pretext for the activity she soon began to display in political matters. Moreover, having gained the ear of the formerly pro-Chinese Court party and—which was more important—the favour of the masterful Queen, she acquired valuable support in the campaign of political intrigue upon which both Powers embarked.

The situation in Korea thus became in many ways similar to what it had been before, when China and Japan were contending for supremacy in the peninsula. We have seen in the former instance the attempts that were made from time to time by the Chinese and Japanese Governments to arrive at an understanding with regard to their respective interests which should introduce more stable conditions into Korean administration, and put an end to the dangerous outbreaks which disturbed the country and threatened at any moment to produce a collision between the two Powers concerned. The process was now repeated, Russia occupying the position held by China before. In 1896 an arrangement was effected between the Russian and Japanese representatives in Korea. This tided over the first difficulties that had arisen, and later in the same year was confirmed by a Convention signed at St. Petersburg by Prince Lobanoff, the Russian Minister for Foreign Affairs, and Prince (then Marquis) Yamagata, who had gone to the Russian capital to attend the late Tsar’s coronation. Count de Witte, in his recently published Memoirs, referring to this Convention, says that Prince Lobanoff “knew no more about the Far East than the average schoolboy.” Two years later a more detailed Agreement in the form of a Protocol was concluded at Tōkiō between Viscount (then Baron) Nishi, the Japanese Minister for Foreign Affairs, and the Russian Minister to Japan, Baron Rosen. This Agreement resembled closely the Convention negotiated at Tientsin in 1889 between China and Japan.

The conclusion of the above mentioned Agreements did not prevent the occurrence of disputes between the two rival Powers. These differences were aggravated by the mischievous influence of Korean political factions, which lost no opportunity of fomenting trouble between the two Powers whose protection was sought. The harmony of relations was also impaired by the presence of Russian and Japanese guards in the capital; by the Russian efforts to obtain control of the Korean army and finances; by the unfortunate implication of the Japanese Minister in Seoul in the murder of the Queen; by the virtual imprisonment of the King in one of the royal palaces; and by his subsequent escape from confinement to the Russian Legation, where he remained for some time under Russian protection. Matters were at length brought to a crisis by the refusal of Russia in the spring of 1903 to evacuate Manchuria in pursuance of her Agreement with China concluded in the previous October. This refusal was followed by the appointment of Admiral Alexeieff as Viceroy of the Russian Far Eastern Territories, and an increase of activity in Korea, where large timber concessions were obtained, and other Russian enterprises set on foot. For this renewal of aggressive action on the part of Russia the way had been prepared by the construction of railways in Siberia and Manchuria—a work of many years; and it is significant that Russia should have timed her refusal to carry out the Agreement for evacuation so as to coincide with the completion of the Chinese Eastern Railway, which practically established direct railway communication between Moscow and Port Arthur. There could no longer be any doubt that the Russian Government had not abandoned the far-reaching designs which her lease of Port Arthur had heralded, and was bent on pursuing a provocative policy. Count de Witte, in the Memoirs already quoted, holds the late Tsar directly responsible for the course adopted, which he describes as “the Far Eastern adventure.” The Tsar, he says, had no definite programme of conquest, but was anxious to spread Russian influence in the Far East by acquiring fresh territory, and he speaks of him as having a thirst for military glory and conquests. He further explains that the Tsar at this time came under the influence of Bezobrazov, Plehve and other unscrupulous officials, who encouraged him to defy Japan. Had Russia at this stage of affairs been content to limit her activity to Manchuria, leaving Japan a clear field in Korea, the Russo-Japanese war would probably not have taken place, or it might, at least, have been postponed. A proposal to this effect was, indeed, made by Japan in the course of the negotiations between the two Powers, which were commenced at the Russian capital about the time of Alexeieff’s appointment, and continued until early in the following year. Russia, however, refused to entertain it. The uncompromising and obdurate attitude she displayed was in marked contrast to the conciliatory disposition evinced by Japan. For the deadlock thus created Russia alone was responsible. The Japanese Government, recognizing the futility of any further attempt to arrive at a satisfactory understanding with her, decided to take the bull by the horns, and terminate negotiations. Accordingly, in two Notes addressed to the Russian Government on the 5th February, 1904, it announced its intention to break oil diplomatic relations, reserving to itself the right to take what independent action might be necessary to defend its threatened interests. At the same time the Japanese Government sent a circular despatch to the same effect to its diplomatic representatives abroad for the information of the Governments to which they were accredited.