If you are in the RIGHT HABITAT and the RIGHT AREA at the RIGHT SEASON, you should be able to find the “hard to miss” birds on nearly every field trip; the “should see” on 3 out of 4 trips; the “may see” on 1 out of 4 trips; and the “lucky to find” on 1 out of 10 trips or even less frequently. The “how lucky can you get” species occur at very infrequent intervals or take an expert to identify.
Although “forget it” is the answer that you will probably receive when inquiring about your chances of seeing a very rare species, do not stop looking. Adding a rarity to your list is what puts the topping on a trip. If you are positive of your identification, take careful notes and report your find to the regional editor of American Birds: Esther M. Serr, 615 8th Street, Rapid City, S.D. 57701.