Far more important were the cessions of territory soon afterwards made to Great Britain in compensation for the occupation of the ports of Liao-tung by the Russians. Their value did not consist in their extent, which was not considerable, being merely Wei-hai-wei and a little town in Shan-tung, and 400 square miles of territory in the peninsula of Kowloon, and immediately opposite Hong-Kong. Both were leased for ninety-nine years. The strategical value is, however, of the highest importance. In the peninsula of Kowloon, where the English had up to this time only a small piece of land, they now came into possession of all the heights and bays necessary to shelter the port of Hong-Kong from attack and to insure its extension. Wei-hai-wei, on the other hand, gave them precisely what they had long coveted—a naval station in the North of China, so that when their squadron was in these latitudes it would no longer be obliged to make a voyage of from four to five days in order to take in provisions or seek shelter at Hong-Kong. Wei-hai-wei, the fortifications of which were immediately undertaken, in a measure weakens Port Arthur, the two being exactly opposite each other, with a stretch of sea of only sixty miles between them, and the former is not much more distant from the mouth of the Pei-ho. Needless to say, being in possession of so excellent a station, England with her superior fleet will necessarily during many years to come be in a position to prevent the Russian squadron interfering with her projects, and also, notwithstanding the shortness of the journey, to impede any assistance by sea being afforded to Russian troops who might be operating in the north of China. The English, moreover, can from this position, by a dexterous movement, cut the line of railway between Tien-tsin and the Great Wall.
Notwithstanding these advantages, the insatiable British public was not satisfied, and complained that the Government had allowed Germany to occupy a privileged position in Shan-tung, and had, moreover, promised not to interfere with her rights in that province, nor to construct a railway starting from Wei-hai-wei, and, moreover, to consider this place as a sort of Far Eastern Gibraltar without any commercial pretensions, thereby consenting to the creation of a German sphere of interest in opposition to the policy of the ‘open door.’ When Parliament was prorogued in August, the Chinese Question had been discussed no fewer than eight times, and the Salisbury Ministry had been frequently and very bitterly attacked by its own supporters. The intemperate oratory of certain Ministers, and notably of Mr. Chamberlain, who unhesitatingly accused Russia of bad faith, and even went so far as to say one must remember when dealing with Russia the old proverb, ‘He who sups with the devil must have a long spoon,’ had not a little contributed to excite public opinion in Great Britain. In order to soothe matters a little, the Cabinet declared to Parliament that its Minister at Peking had been authorized to inform the Chinese Government that Great Britain would lend its support in order to resist an attempt on the part of any Power to commit an act of aggression against China under the pretext that she had granted to a British subject the concession of a railway or other public work.
This was a return to the policy of the ‘open door’ to which England attaches so much importance. She refused to admit that commercial privileges should be given to any one Power, or any preference for public works to be executed; in a word, she would hear of no ‘spheres of interest.’ Such stipulations are, indeed, diametrically opposed to the wording of the treaties, but in these times hardly, except by force or the threat to use it, can one expect even the most solemn engagements to be observed. England herself was obliged to concur in the German ‘sphere of interest’ in Shan-tung. In the months of August and September, 1898, it was once more feared that there might be trouble between England and Russia over the matter of the railway from Shan-hai-Kwan to Niu-chwang, a prolongation beyond the Great Wall of the line between Peking, Tien-tsin, and Shan-hai-Kwan. The principal bank in the Far East, the Hong-Kong and Shanghai Banking Corporation, was to build it for the Chinese Government and exploit it, reserving as security a first mortgage on the line. Russia intervened, and objected that any railway concession should be given to any other Power than herself north of the Great Wall. After considerable discussion, the Powers arrived at an agreement, and the English company kept the concession, but only retained a lien on the already constructed Peking-Shan-hai-Kwan line to the south of the Wall.
In the midst of all the intrigues and unpleasantness which we have just narrated, Europe has, nevertheless, accomplished at Peking a noteworthy and unprecedented work. She has not only obtained very advantageous concessions for her commerce, such, for instance, as the opening to navigation of all the watercourses on which Treaty Ports are situated, but also the allotment to the European Customs Administration of the collecting of likin in the valley of the Yang-tsze, as a security for the third great loan of £16,000,000. She has also obtained the right to introduce into China the best machinery for the exploitation of her natural resources. The English are about to work the coal and iron mines of Shan-si and Ho-nan, the Germans those of Shan-tung, and the English and French together the mines of Yunnan. Six thousand miles of railway are to be constructed, not only at the extremities of the Empire in the Steppes of Manchuria and on the plateaux bordering Indo-China, but also in the thickly-peopled central and eastern provinces, from Peking to Han-kau and Canton, from Tien-tsin to the lower Yang-tsze, in Shan-tung and around Shanghai, connecting towns of several hundred thousand, and even over a million inhabitants, through countries at least twice as densely peopled as France.
CHAPTER XI
THE FUTURE OF CHINA—MAINTENANCE OR PARTITION OF THE CELESTIAL EMPIRE?
Necessity of proceeding slowly with the Reform movement in China, if the overthrow of the Empire is to be averted—Weakness of the Government at Peking—The Emperor and the Reformer, Kang-Yu-Wei—The Empress Dowager and Li Hung-chang—Palace revolution in September, 1898—Enormous obstacles in the way of the Celestial Empire reforming itself—Reasons why it cannot follow the example of Japan in 1868—The possibility of partition—The interests of Great Britain, the United States, and Japan, partizans of the ‘open door’ policy, and of Germany, Russia, and France—The dangers incurred by partition—Difficulties of effecting it pacifically, and also for Europeans to govern the hundreds of millions of Chinese—The anarchy that might result—Services which might be rendered to progress by the Chinese Government in preventing too rapid a transition—Possibility of converting the Chinese to material progress.
‘Every time that the bones of China are rattled—and they have never been more vigorously than at present’—said a technical English paper, ‘an increase of commerce follows.’ Nothing can be truer; but, at the same time, it might be prudent not to shake the old skeleton too violently, too often, or too long, if we do not wish to see it tumble to pieces. China is a sort of amorphous State whose different parts are joined together by the very weakest ties, concerning which we know little or nothing, and whose main force consists in tradition and in the existence of a governing class of literati, recruited throughout the Empire, even among the very people. On the other hand, germs of serious disaffection do exist; the actual Dynasty is a foreign one, which, at the beginning of the century, the terrible Taiping Rebellion—only suppressed with the assistance of Europeans—nearly ruined, and the descendants of the old national Ming Dynasty are still living. The accession to the throne of the present Emperor was irregular, it seems, according to Chinese procedure, and the country is honeycombed by secret societies, whose object is the overthrow of the existing state of affairs. The mass of the people are totally indifferent to politics, and very rarely exhibit hostility to foreigners, if the latter behave with circumspection, unless, indeed, they are urged on by fanatics or malcontents, when, unfortunately, they are easily roused. In the principal towns of every prefecture and sub-prefecture there exists a heterogeneous mass of soured and fanatical literati, who pursue the humblest trades in order to keep themselves from starvation, who are intimately mixed up with the people, by whom they are treated with great respect, and who will obey their commands to overthrow the Europeans and their innovations.
The Government of Peking is too thoroughly convinced of its external weakness to openly resist any demand imposed upon it by the Powers, but if it be too hardly pressed, and forced to introduce or allow the premature introduction of all sorts of innovations, and in too many places at once, it may run the risk of exciting against it the literati, who regard, and not without reason, any extension of European influence as a menace to their privileges. Such action might easily lead to active opposition to all reform, especially in the central and southern provinces, more backward than those of the north, and, if leaders of the movement can be discovered, lead to the complete disorganization of the Celestial Empire. Trouble has already occurred in Sze-chuan, as well as further in the lower valley of the Yang-tsze. A rather serious insurrection broke out in 1898 in the Kwang-si and Kwang-tung, but without any result. We know that local troubles in so badly governed a country as China of a necessity must become chronic, but in many cases the news concerning them reaches Europe considerably embellished and exaggerated.
It is certain that the elements of disorder are just now greatly excited. Even at Peking rival factions are disputing for power; the events which occurred there in September, 1898, are little, and possibly never will be completely, known, and it would be impossible to relate with any approach to truth the tragedies and comedies that are constantly being enacted within the walls of the Forbidden City.
The Emperor Kuang-Su, a young man of twenty-five, with a sickly body, and, it is said, a weak mind, had been completely won over to the Reform movement by a literate of the new school, named Kang-Yu-Wei, who hailed from Canton. His Celestial Majesty, with all the zeal of a neophyte, was induced during the summer to issue a distinctly revolutionary edict. It was said that he went so far as to presume to wear a European costume, and that he even intended going personally to Japan to observe there for himself the transformation which had been effected in the last thirty years. The Reform party undoubtedly had entertained Japanese as well as English sympathies, and its chief, Kang-Yu-Wei, passed his last night at Peking in the Japanese Legation. Marquis Ito, it is said, discouraged the precipitation with which it was intended to carry out in a few weeks reforms that had taken more than a quarter of a century to accomplish in Japan.